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sl100

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  • Dogs Barking In The Dow, Value Or Warning Signals? [View article]
    XOM is the worst of the down, i commented on many articles. It has 450B mkt cap with no growth and expecting oil price average of $105. Also many of the projects have overrun and it is becoming very difficult to buy assets as the competition form Asia. Many of the long term contracts they had are also slowing expiring. So the margin they enjoyed with not much competition is I think gone for most part. Recently they about to lose Abu Dhabi as the country said they are going manage they own oil fields. Also a lot of OIL is coming online and inventory levels of Nat Gas is very high and growing. With this valuations its hard to buy this company.
    Jan 9, 2014. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Exit Exxon And Chevron Stock [View article]
    CVX is OK I think, but I agree that XOM is a bit over valued to start a position here. They have several issues and it is too big to grow 450B Mkt cap and about 25B net debt. while its growth rate is 2-4% next several years. If the stocks say goes to $95 which it could then you lost 2 years of div. Wait for pull back to add position if you have to. Also last 2 months has run up15% which is huge move for company like XOM. last year rev drop 14% and oil prices are going down and completion from china, india and other is heating up as seen from recent deals. today Middle east sate did not renew a long term contract that is up for renewal so those cheap deals they had are going away that's a big issue, replacement costs are big and many of XOM projects have seen overruns. I am not sure Warren Buffet bough aver around 80, and it is small stake of 0.9% of outstanding shares biggest holders are ETF's
    Jan 8, 2014. 11:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the close [View news story]
    Wondering give the following it did not fal moew

    -- World wide debt 200 Year high
    -- Corporate debt Highest ever, 12.5T in US alone. Was 6.5T in 2007
    -- Fed Balance Sheet 4.2T, year end 5.2T wondering how this is going to unfold, kind of put them self into a corner.
    -- Margin Debt in US stock market close to 500B higest ever.
    -- Federal Govt Debt 17.4T and Growing Year, end will be 18.5T. Exclude Muni, state and other debt
    -- US stocks PE CAPE > 25 which 3rd Highest in last 100 Years.
    -- Emerging markets growth has slowed down quite a bit and is not that improving much. Check China(Appears to be in trouble), Brazil, India, Turkey etc.
    -- So many negatives and still they are herding people into the riskest assets stocks.
    -- Companies are issuing debt to buy back shares and pay div's not from business growth.

    People need to get out and move to cash and money mkt funds, this hard earned money wait for the Mkts to correct and revert to reason valuations. DO not short the market because the big boys will squeeze you with kind of liquidity provided by the feds and leverage they have.
    Jan 6, 2014. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google roundup: PT hikes, car alliance, Bitspin [View news story]
    This why the feds and gov should not have helped the financial companies so much. These guys have no shame in promting what they own instead of giving good advise.

    -- GOOG has Mkt Cap of 375Billion 3rd largest company after apple and XOM.
    -- Insiders are selling like crazy, largest insider sale than any other company close to 30-40Billion. They need to sell the inventory the insiders are selling so the guys are trying pump the price targets, just likel when apple was at 700.
    -- Only place it makes Revn is internet adv, and that slowing down. Mobile adv has too much competition.
    -- PE is 34 currently very very high given that its growth is slowing down.
    -- Fidelity is the largest owner and they are also slowing getting out if the stock, so looks like they are trying find buys to dump. These guys manipulate the stock during earning and low volumes. Last Year most of the gain in GOOG came in few days one of those days was last earning 150$ rise which is so obvious, SEC should be investigating Fidelity.
    -- Its up nearly 60% in one year.
    -- 401K plan and investors should take the money and run given the market is up 180% in 5 short years, this normally take decades. Move to Cash or Money Market finds.
    --
    Jan 6, 2014. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke: Taper and rate hikes two very different things [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/19YfEPb

    SnP chart

    Debt levels highest in 200 years
    http://bit.ly/JyvkSt


    Feds has to say positive things but he knows the markets are in a bubble. He said no issues before real estate bubble but envying knows what happened. These folks have not work in real business and use economic models to predict the future but data input into the model is crap so the results are crap. The world is awash with debt not seen in 200 years, this cannot be pretty. Why people believe these folks after so many disasters in the 15 years is beyond me

    Started with LTCM bail out, technology bust , then realestate bubble, now all bubbles realestate, stock market, national debtlevels not seen in 200 years. These only know how to bigger bubbles and no consequences for failure.
    Jan 5, 2014. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 12 Ideas For Your Portfolio In 2014 [View article]
    GOOG and AAPL is too big and both are showing slow down.
    APPL Mkt Cap : 500Billion, reached saturation and cannot grow, this may be the last qtr of sales due to holiday discouting but next qtr is going to be a disaster fro sure.
    GOOG : 375B, they make money in web ads but that is decreasing and others are cat'ing up. In mobile space FB, twtr and other are ahead but google is making much money here.

    I say both these are not good recommendations for 2014.
    Jan 4, 2014. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Role Of ExxonMobil's Buyback In Creating 10% Growth [View article]
    I did post it to educate people of the facts not hiding anything these are facts its up to the reader to make better judgements, google all things I listed and you would see what I have written is true. Todays blogs and MS media is corrupted so getting other side of the story helps people make better decisions.
    Jan 3, 2014. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impact On Apple If 2% - 4% Of China Mobile Customers Buy An iPhone [View article]
    APPLE is good company but the stock is very rich interms of long term growth. Which is not sustainable max is 1-2 qtrs. they have reached saturation. mkt of 500B is no small feat to keep growing period all other discussions are waste of time.
    Same with Google 35PE with a mkt cap of 375B and only place they make money is web ads, mobile is split and they growth is slowing. This clearly shows in the inside sales the largest every sale in one by a company insiders. Where is the media telling you this you got read the balance sheet and look for inside sales
    Jan 3, 2014. 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - 2014 Dow Predictions (1/2/14) [View article]
    Basically saying buy all the dow componets at these levels and you would be fine. Serious XOM going 15% from here this has already run up 15% in less than 2 months on all the wrong news taper, WB buying (which he bought in the 70 and lower 80 and just holds .8%).

    -- XOM is 450B in mkt cap with net debt, issued debt to buy shares, which now is slowing as well
    -- Declining reserves did not replace reserves for several years costing them very little to no growth.
    -- Unable to get cheaper assets as the Chinese have bought up a lot of stuff all over the world. so is India and others.
    -- XOM use to get assets very cheap until the 90's as they was no competition but now its not easy and they know it well
    -- Cost over runs in many projects.
    -- decline oil prices they need about 105$ to grow at 2-4%. So many oil and nat gas fields coming online so price pressure is just started.
    -- over paid for acquisitions.

    This is one of reason this Cramer guy is dangerous. He does not tell how much debt the corporates have 12.5T(from 6.5T in 2007), Yields are way up from start of last year so div are not attractive. Margin debt 450B and growing highest ever. The only reason the mkts are up is because of money printing and now the feds are in trouble because they have 4.2T on the balance sheet and by year end they will be sitting on 5.5T paper wow. This why they herding the sheep not to sell and hoping the media does its pump job daily.
    Feds know it and that why they show up TV every week and write op-eds regularly to keep the animal sprits up.

    For folks like me it is safe now to move to cash no bonds or stocks, let the last 10% be for the greedy. Move your 401K to cash or money market funds. time to get of the train with such a run why not. The train may have lost its breaks and will end up crashing
    Jan 3, 2014. 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T fires preemptive shot at T-Mobile, offers up to $450 in credit to switch [View news story]
    T and VZ are over charging fro the plans, both these companies are monopolies and people deserve alternatives T-Mobile and sprint are doing a good job to keep them in check. I am planning to switch my plan to prepaid or TMobile/Sprint plans much cheaper than both VZ and ATT
    Jan 3, 2014. 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter nears $70 again; shorts hard-pressed to find shares [View news story]
    Waste of time big boys control the tape they can take where ever it has to go, this can go to 200 too ti squeeze the shorts cray to short this tock out right, only way is do buy puts or calls. do no long or short the stock too volatile and dangerous.
    Jan 3, 2014. 09:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke: Taper and rate hikes two very different things [View news story]
    Feds are loaded with 4.2 Trillion balance sheet and by year end 2014 they will have 5.5T(Aprox). They have gone too far with this. Savers who did nothing wrong got screwed big time with annual loss in interest of 350B(total of 1.75T) basically they stole this from the hardworking people who did not burden the society. Debt is the only way for these guys to solve problem now they have so much of it that they need to come to public every week and tell things are just fine and are improving so that people can buy stocks at elevated levels. They are masters of creating bubbles on grand scale, instead of stopping all the mal investments.

    They never ever tell you how much debt is now in the system as a total which now much larger than 2007 before the crash. Example corp debt has gone from 6.5T to 12.5T in just 5 years and growing. I have not see one article in the MS media or The feds telling people to cautious about the corp debt levels. Margin debt is also the higest ever close to 450B. Who do blame just Feds they are problem for entire worlds population, billions of people are dying due to inflation due to these mis directed policies sad but true no one wants to talk about.
    Jan 3, 2014. 09:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: Buckle Up For 2014 [View article]
    I agree with the analysis but the Fed and Big firms are keeping the mkt up no matter what. The way for this to crash is for yields to spike in US and JPY. This is the biggest fraud in history. All hard earned life saving are been forced into the most riskiest assets to help a few.

    For 401K savers and small investors this is the time to go cash no matter what the feds and wall street says. Direct your 401K plan to money market funds if there is no place to park cash. Not great idea to wait for the next 5-10% as the mkts are so over valued in equities.

    Shorting is still dangerous as the feds are printing more and more every day they are close to shutting this in the next 6 months or so. Not because they want to they balance sheet is now 4.2 Trillion and growing daily at few billion a monster they have created By end of the year they will have close to 5.5T at the current rate. Note the main tool they have now is to promote animal sprits with very positive talks in the media. This will go one and the powerful people wall street will know before the individual investor who will be left holding the bag. Time to take the money and run.

    In Japan if the yields rise to just 2.6% all the taxes collect is just to pay the interest and nothing else. So if the go to 1.5 from current level of .72% they can go bankrupt very fast. Matter of days, this end all the centeral bankers money printing what a world we have created.
    Jan 3, 2014. 09:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'We Have Seen A Return Of Practices That Made People Nervous In 2007' [View article]
    Feds are the reason for all this, they keep blowing bigger and bigger bubbles helping the wrong people. They need to stop this. The risk in the system is much larger than 2007-2008, not in the big financial firms but in ETF's, hedge funds, corporates who have double the debt to 12.5T from 6.5T in 2007. Feds have push people into the riskiest assets like stocks. The saver have lost about 350Billion a year in fixed income for being good citizens(total of 1.75 trillion in lost interest in 5 years of repression).

    Feds are working on animal sprits, if the feds want to keep borrowing cost low they should stop the funds flowing from Bonds to stocks this in turn remove some risk of people getting too much into the riskest assets stocks.
    Jan 3, 2014. 01:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 More Likely To Break 2000 Than Experience A Correction By Mid-2014 [View article]
    what do not sell now, I say sell now who wants the last 5-10% except the greedy, this is the time to be carefull and preserve the wealth, put them in cash no bonds not stocks(hihest risk to reward ratio). I sold all my stocks in 401K and went cash I can sit on this for the next 2 year need be and just nibble a little wen the value occurs. 401k plan folks should move to 75% cash after biggest run in hist in such a short time. Foolish to ask for more than this.

    The valuations are at the very high end and corp debt levels are the highest ever 12.5T debt from 6.5T in 2007. Limit scope for buy backs. Margin debt higest ever close to 500B. Now they want bond fund holders to move to stocks when the yield has already double in the last one year(10 year treasury was 1.6 now it is 3.0%) so div stocks offer little value for the risk to take if treasure offer a safer yield. The wealth mgt groups are preaching bond holders to move to stock holding with the intention of selling to them and telling them they would get better returns in stocks than bonds. They do tell them the risk people are taking in stocks at these valuations. Sad but true.

    Whole mkt is now working on fed psychology and wall street marketing game. Feds are hoping people stick around.

    feds are bankrupt with yields at 3% if they mark the books the same as firms do. But the accouting rules are different for the feds, no need to post margin on the mark to market of the feds books.
    Jan 3, 2014. 01:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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