westwest888

Why Treasury Doesn’t Want Goldman’s Money

They going to pay back the TAF, the PCDF, the TSLF, the overnight repos, the PPIP, the AIG pass through, and all of the other tens of billions they've taken also? Who cares if they rape the other programs to pay back the TARP?

Luckiest Generation in History: Young Americans

I think the young generation is the worst off. My peers are chronically underemployed, lazy, unmotivated, and likely to live at home or depend financially on their boomer parents until 30 or later.

Simply put, there is not enough productive capacity in my generation to repay the debts boomers have taken against us. Hell, there isn't even enough productive capacity for us to pay back the credit card, auto and student loan debt we've taken out ourselves.

I am awaiting for a social pattern to emerge where boomer parents realize they only have 10% of what they need to retire, and cut off their twentysomething albatrosses. Reality is going to bite when they go out looking for work in the depression. If we're as smart as everyone thinks, maybe we'll invent the next internet whatever that may be.

Two Market Indicators: Gold and Baltic Dry Index

Gold hasn't reached a high in dollars but has reached a high in euros and pounds. The dollar is temporarily strong because European banks have a high demand for dollars to cover their losses in dollar denominated instruments. Specifically, AIG losses, Lehman losses, ARS, ABS, MBS, CMBS securities. When the losses are covered, the dollar goes back to where it was.

You should read Brad Setser at CFR before you post, bro.

New Treasury Supply: Did It Already Cost Taxpayers $240 Million Today?

Owen - lemme guess, default is impossible because it's a 10 standard deviation event in your model. I would short treasuries, except the counterparty won't be able to pay when I'm right because they have no money.

New Treasury Supply: Did It Already Cost Taxpayers $240 Million Today?

You make a very good point. This bond issue had to compensate buyers an extra 40 basis points or it would have failed. This will ramp the cost of rolling over all existing US debt (11 trillion) which has an average maturity of 3 years. That increases the interest portion of the Congressional budget and inches us closer to the end game - DEFAULT.

California Home Sales: 43% Year Over Year Increase!

"Your" an idiot.

Home Prices Have Stopped Falling: The Statistics Are Skewed

Pop quiz, based on your hypothesis that home prices have reached a nominal bottom.

Home price year 0 = $400,000.
Home price year 5 = $400,000.

How much did the home appreciate?

Answer: It depreciated 26%. There was inflation.

In a more likely scenario it depreciates AND gets eaten by inflation. Hello 50% off.

Home Prices Have Stopped Falling: The Statistics Are Skewed

You could post date your article August 21, 2011 and your bottom call would be wrong - like Ben Stein wrong, Daniel Mudd wrong, David Lereah wrong.

The "green zone" for house prices is a maximum of 3x income or 120x rent. By either measure in any top 20 US city, we'd still need to fall another 50% to be in the green zone. But that's not the bottom, that's just the MAXIMUM affordable, sustainable home price. The bottom in some cases is 1/4 current asking prices. As for REO inventory, you'd better hope private equity approaches these banks and buys 50,000 houses from them in bulk with financing. Like $0.50 on the dollar, $0.10 down, 80% financed. A call option. LOL.

Why I Finally Bought Fannie Mae

You look like a thug from Scarface in your photo. Oh yeah, and you just made a hellacious trade!

Investing 101 - common stock is an option on the profits for the next 50 years, secondary to bond holders and preferred stock holders. And in this case, the US Treasury, Russia, China and Japan.

How Low Before Housing Blows?

If now is a good time to buy, later is a good time to pay half as much. Only now is not a good time to buy. And later than later will be 1/4 as much as now.

What's Driving Fannie and Freddie

Maybe the bond market is projecting the new cost of Treasury debt, in the agency spreads. In other words, when the Treasury bails out FNM, FRE, here are your new costs for the 5y and 10y.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

XOM makes $30b. AAPL makes $3.5b and they're only 10% of the computer market. Sounds like AAPL needs to pay their fair share. Windfall profits tax is in order. Give a rebate to everyone who bought an iPod on their credit card, so they can pay their credit card bill.

16 Stocks That Are Paying My College Tuition

Uh, do you have $2000 in positions in 20 stocks? I found it hard to make money taking positions less than, say, $5000.

Are Short Sales Shorting the Real Estate Market?

Short sales are just a carrot the banks use to get homeowners to keep making payments. If they were astute, they'd know it's never happening and the bank is conning them out of a dozen PMTs they could have walked away from. I don't think short sales are fake inventory, rather future inventory. Clearly these homes will be foreclosed on. Get used to the banking system being the biggest landlord in the country, with more inventory than new homebuilders combined.

8 or 9% interest would be great for young buyers (anyone under 30). You can refinance away interest; you can't refinance away $500,000 of principal on a 3br 1ba house. Let prices fall.

Why It's Time to Invest in Domestic Banks

Oh, it's that easy. Just take the deposits and invest them in high yield instruments. What about the fact that those banks on average have 67% of their assets in US real estate? You know, the stuff that is going to go down another 50% in price?