westwest888

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    • Sun Apr 6th 17:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ten Comments on Housing
      15% is a complete and total pipe dream, even for nationwide prices. I could see it falling 15% per year for two or three years for close to a 40% drop, then leveling off to a rate of home price appreciation that doesn't keep up with inflation. Any place where a starter home is approaching $500,000 is going to see a 50% haircut guaranteed. Until the manager of Pizza Hut can buy a house in David Merkel's zip code with a 30 year fixed DTI 36% and 20% down, it's too expensive.

      Think about people born after 1978 who are unlikely to be current homeowners because they were in school and finding a spouse. These people are the foundation of buyers as the nation's housing stock increases in size. Until it is fiscally possible for 80% of them to buy with a legitimate mortgage product, the crisis has no end in sight. Even when they can buy, who's going to want to when the social mood is so sour? Real estate is going to be about a popular as YHOO in 2001. Contrarians will be buying real estate. Real people will run for the hills.

      2015 is an optimistic time for 12 months of continuous year over year home price increases that outpace inflation.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 4th 12:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Market Tracker - A sampling of Macro Effects of Housing
      How about the non homeowners who want to buy a home but can't because they're above 2.5x income? Even as a top 20% income earner, this doesn't get you a condo nevermind a house near any coastal city. Is anyone born after 1979 just plain SOL when it comes to talk of keeping prices high with the hand of the government?

      >“You hear a lot about foreclosure and the thousands of families who are being forced out. But that is swamped by the number of people who want to sell their homes and can’t.” - Joseph S. Tracy, director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 4th 12:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      4 Market Lessons from This Rocky Period
      I think the market was efficient when it came to Bear Stearns. As soon as it became clear Bear wasn't going to make it, they took the stock down toward $0. The market is inefficient when it comes to the rest of the banks because of asymmetrical information. Read: the banks know they are insolvent but will play the con for as long as possible, aided and abetted by the Federal Reserve. LEH, MER - put a big goose egg next to them also. Hint: they will go from good to zero in about 24 hours.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 31st 13:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      SPY: The Case for a Bottom Being in Place
      I'm looking for a low of $107 (1070) in 2008 and $80 ($800) in 2009.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 31st 10:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      No Sign of a Credit Crunch Outside of Real Estate
      My father got laid off because his boss' engineering company could not get accounts receivable financing. These problems extend to anyone who has collateral and needs cash. Collateral is often, but not always, real estate.
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 26th 07:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Fed is Deflating: 10 Reasons Why
      This is perhaps the best article I've read on SeekingAlpha in the last year. Thank you.
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 4th 11:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Trade and the Declining Dollar: What Do Slowing Imports Mean, and Is There a J-Curve?
      As I understand it, one of our primary exports is used cars. Not exactly productive but it has a net effect on the trade balance. But that might be slowing down dramatically as Mexico announces they are no longer a dumping ground for our used crap:

      www.autoblog.com/2008/.../
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 25th 08:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      US Dollar: Double Bang for Your Buck
      So assets are going to soar? Should I buy more houses or more stocks? Or should I not listen to you because your analysis is flawed. Standing where we are in 2008, you can have a mix of: asset deflation and dollar devaluation. They can't move against each other. We're heading for real estate and consumer credit deflation to the tune of $10 trillion+. The Fed is going to attempt to juice the money supply with at least that much to prevent deflation, and create commodities and consumer price inflation by doing so.

      But I'll be watching your asset appreciation theory and no inflation theory from the sidelines. Good luck.
      View article »
    • Fri Feb 22nd 07:15 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      1970s Style Stagflation? I Don't Buy It
      M1 is not releveant to an inflation discussion in 2008. Credit cards do not fall under M1, M2 or M3 they are not considered to be part of the money supply. Of course M1 is flat, nobody has any money. Negative savings should produce negative M1. What people have is debt and credit.

      The 1970s didn't have credit cards like we know today. Seriously, this is elmentary. Delete your post.
      View article »
    • Wed Feb 20th 15:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Should the US Government Buy Distressed Bonds?
      Sending everyone a check for a million dollars is also on the table. This would have a great short term effect and I'm bullish.

      Disclosure: long QQQQ, DIA, SPY
      View article »
    • Tue Feb 12th 09:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      MBIA: Is Fair Value Accounting a Good Deal for Investors?
      I think the value of something with no price is 0. Think of it like an IRR problem at a factory. You buy capital equipment at some huge outlay -1M. It has a miserable salvage value after you buy it and install it, like $0.20 on the dollar. And then you get a stream of cash flows from it's output for 30 years at 10k a month.
      View article »
    • Tue Feb 12th 08:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Year Doesn't Look Lost Just Yet
      You're an idiot. Can you make your next post about astrology? What does Zeus think the S&P500 will do?
      View article »
    • Tue Feb 5th 16:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What the Housing 'Apocalypse' Prophets Aren't Revealing
      author: So why don't you call a bottom in US Real Estate? I mean, your mortgage broker report is probably as good as gold. Those guys are known for their extremely reliable data. We trust them to fill in our income and everything on the loan application. So they probably can be trusted to fill out surveys accurately too. Everyone needs a mortgage!
      View article »
    • Tue Feb 5th 12:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      ETFs For The Bear Market
      Interesting. I have historical evidence that supports the notion that the S&P 500 may find itself at 715 on 1/31/09. Yeah, a 7-handle. Three digit S&P 500.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 15th 17:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      S&P 500 Falls Well Below Analyst Targets
      OK wth. That's straight up collusion. Are these guys all fed shareholders?
      View article »
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