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    • Leucadia National: Don’t Be Afraid of Companies Not Widely Followed [view article]
      I worked for this company for ten years. The top guys are financial phenoms. I wish the U.S. currency said it was backed by the full faith and credit of Leucadia because I would have a little more confidence in the dollar. This stock is never a sell - take it from a guy who made that very mistake a couple of times. Because the company absolutely shuns publicity and the top guys are not glory hounds, they never get caught up in the euphoria and subsequent blood bath of market bubbles. They do what others just talk about - buy when there is blood in the streets, sell when everyone in the world is buying. Their website - in all its spartan glory - says all you need to know about this company: Don't spend money that will not yield at least a 30% ROI. May 04 12:52 AM
    • Could China Crash the US Dollar on a Whim? [view article]
      In addition to the points made in the above comment, it is worthy to note that China's huge $1.4 trillion surplus is really just an earmarking technicality. If you kept U.S. government revenues at their current level and then eliminated all social programs, we would be running a huge surplus also. This is essentially the situation with China. They have no social security program, a massive 1.4 billion population, a one child policy (which means most the huge population is old), and no significant social programs for medical care, poverty reduction, etc. I would have a huge budget surplus too, if I put my paycheck in the bank and made my family live in a cardboard box. Now I'm not saying China is not in a good position to provide citizen benefits. I'm sure $1.4 trillion goes a long way in China. I'm just saying they use their $1.4 trillion to artificially peg their currency to the dollar, instead of allowing efficient market forces to do their work. Eventually, they will have to deal with the elderly and handicapped in their country (probably by allowing what will become known as The Great Dying). Eventually, they will have to float their currency to remain a member of the WTO. Remember, Japan was running a huge surplus when they were "buying America" in the eighties - back when they were the world's factory. Too many corrupt bank officials and non-performing loans to crony company executives, a high-flying domestic stock market, and overpriced urban real estate killed that off, and they are still trying to recover. Sound familiar? Oct 24 07:08 PM
    • Could China Crash the US Dollar on a Whim? [view article]
      I haven't even read this article - only the first paragraph, and I am laughing. You compare this Chinaphobia with Japanaphobia that turned out to be nothing, then you dismiss that as a non-relevant fact for another discussion. China's economy is more dependent on the U.S. than we are on China. Sure 80% of our toys come from China, but we can get by without plastic fantastic toys for our children. Everything we import from China could be cut off and we would be just fine. No TVs, no game systems, no poison toothpaste. We don't import anything critical from China that could not be easily sourced somewhere else. We actually would emerge better off than ever. China on the other hand would be crippled trying to replace the U.S. market for its goods. If China did somehow crash the dollar it would be fine. Smart U.S. investors have a lot of international exposure right now and would see the value of those holdings increase. Oil prices would increase dramatically but all the money we would be saving not buying Chinese imports could cover that expense. It would also continue the trend towards investment in alternative/renewable/... energy sources and wean the U.S. off foriegn oil. Our exporters would be much more competitive globally - we are the breadbasket for the world. Maybe I should go read your article before I make all these comments. It is just that you summed up the whole thing when you said Japanaphobia turned out to be nothing. China's domestic economic boom, while real, is fueled by government spending. This is possible because of China's robust trade with the U.S. If we stop buying China, their boom is over, and they know this. Oct 24 06:43 PM
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