Apples to Apples: Will History Repeat Itself as Android Gains on the iPhone? [View article]
By comparing the iPhone and Android, I think you're missing the real significance of what is going on.
Based on hype factor alone (which may, but won't necessarily turn into a market changing event), this could significantly change the market- but not in a Apple vs. Google way.
Yesterday, the market consisted of Apple and everyone else. Today, the market consists of Apple, Android, and everyone else. This affects the "everyone else" category much more than it affects Apple.
Down on the Farm: Do Farm Stocks Have a Place in a Balanced Portfolio? [View article]
I'm not really sure I understand the rationale for investing in farmland. I could see the value in some specific ag related stocks, but not the land in general. Parts of my extended family have ranches that have been in the family for over 100 years. It has provided a modest living and a nice home for them over the years, but I can't see it providing much value in a retirement portfolio.
Sprint's Upcoming Phone Lineup: It Has to Do Better than That [View article]
I'm happy with Sprint as a customer (the HTC diamond touch is a good phone btw), but I would never own shares in the company. Sprint is progressively getting weaker while the competitors are getting stronger.
Xbox 360 Upgrade: 1080p Streaming Quality Is Incredible [View article]
Here's my review of the preview:
Overview: The new features in the xbox update are interesting, but only represented a small incremental improvement over what's already out there. To date, these updates are not impressive, but they show significant promise if MSFT is flexible with its business model and is willing to unite a lot of the disparate features with some type of unifying vision.
Zune movies: The instant on is pretty cool, however the content selection is sparce, and it is way too expensive. Not to mention, a lot of the content that you have to pay for through Zune is available for free on Netflix. Conceptually, they are on to something, but it's going to take some re-working for them to generate significant business.
Facebook: Sure, it's kind of neat to see Facebook on your TV, but the novelty didn't last long. Since there's no keyboard, it's hard to interact with. I could see it being valuable in the future if MSFT finds ways to integrate FB friends with other parts of the xbox experience.
Last.fm: I really like this feature. For those that still listen to FM radio in the home, this could entirely replace it, as long as you're willing to turn on the tv for music. I could see this becoming a popular feature.
Summary: Although some of the features are neat, none of them will drive significant new business. I was most disappointed in the Zune player. If it had included options to either rent or buy a good selection of content at lower prices than blockbuster, this could have been a game changer. As it stands now, they might see some incremental revenue, but nothing significant.
I own AAPL, and I believe in the stock. However, the author brings up a good point. At what point is a share of Apple stock overvalued? Is it $200, $250, or $400?
Remember one of the principle rules of investing. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Although I don't have the same numerical details, I'm inclined to partially agree with both Cramer and Kai. This stock has a lot of momentum, and will continue growing in the short (and maybe medium) term. However, at some point in the future, the growth rate will have to come down, and the multiple will compress. That's simple economics. It doesn't mean I'd ever consider shorting this stock though.
Akamai Acknowledges It's Not Delivering HD Video to the iPhone [View article]
I think this is parsing words a little too finely. Ever since it was launched, it was clear (at least to me) that they were taking HD source content and displaying it on non-HD devices.
I'm no HD expert, but it seems fairly obvious what you are and are not getting. I see your point on their marketing claims, but I also think you're splitting hairs on the details.
I agree with your thesis about uncontrollable spending, but I don't think it will result in a huge change in the status of the dollar.
For starters, there has to be something worthwhile to replace it with. And a basket of currencies makes no sense for a reserve currency. Fundamentally, a reserve currency is a currency that is used for a majority of cross border transactions. Business transactions aren't going to take place in 30% euros, 20% yet, 5 % swiss francs, or whatever they're proposing. That's just silly. And none of the other currencies out there serve as a suitable alternative for a variety of reasons.
The question that the article mentioned was the currency that oil is priced in. They can price it in any currency they want, and it doesn't change the value in relative dollars one bit. They could price it in gold, coffee beans, pork bellies, or foam pellets. A dollar will buy the same amount of oil. Not to mention they'd have a hell of a time getting the oil traders on board.
So yes, there is a lot of unsustainable debt out there. It will cause huge problems in the future. But the arab states and the Chinese only bring this up when they want something diplomatically. It won't change the dollars predominate use.
Will Windows 7 Resurrect IT Spending? [View article]
I think you're partially right, but I don't think the impact will be as large as you're predicting. You're right that there is some pent up demand from companies that haven't upgraded in a few years because of the Vista debacle and IT budgets being cut for the past few years.
However, think of the functionality and utility difference between the last generation of basic computers and this generation of basic computers. There really isn't anything the newer computers can do that the older computers don't do.
So yes, the older computers will get upgraded over time. There will be some pent up demand. But there really won't be a huge rush to replace everything that is already working fine.
eBay Rolls Out More of the 'Top Rated Sellers' Program in Search - Sellers Aren't Happy [View article]
Ebay has had so many opportunities to shape the internet marketplace, and screwed up every single one of them.
Add this to the plenty of anecdotal evidence I hear about how bad the company is to work for, and this seems like a perfect short all the way to $0. (someday)
Upholding the Sanctity of Contracts: Is Gazprom Listening? [View article]
I agree with the article, but I've also been around long enough to realize that contracts are meaningless in the eyes of those with the power to define contract law.
Russia will do what makes sense to them at the moment, regardless of any piece of paper. In some cases, this extends to contracts written by their state owned/influenced companies as well. Invest there with the same caution you would use in Venezuela.
I couldn't agree more. In fact, my entire motivation for learning to handle my own money stemmed from being taken for a ride on a life insurance product I didn't understand and didn't need.
Now I have an MBA in finance, and work with moderately complicated financial contracts daily. And what scares me is that I STILL cannot understand in detail half of the financial products being pitched to unsophisticated investors and consumers.
Bottom line; never invest in something you don't understand, and take responsibility for what you buy.
Cramer's Stop Trading! The Correction Is Coming (9/24/09) [View article]
Cramer does need to be taken with a grain of salt, if not ignored (depending on the type of info you're looking for).
However, I can't understand why people that hate him so much continue to read his articles and comment on them. Why don't you just go read articles from sources you like?
Misunderstanding Inflation: There's No Free Lunch [View article]
I agree in principal, but it adds a few practical problems.
1. How do you measure asset price inflation? Different measurement methods will give vastly different results, all of which could be equally correct.
2. What tools (monetary or fiscal) are available to deal with a situation where there is high asset price inflation, but low product price inflation? Would those tools be politically feasible?
Can Higher Capital Standards Cause Lower Pay? [View article]
I find the concept intriguing, but not for the reasons you specify. Actually, I don't think restraining the growth of top banks will have a serious impact on compensation across the board.
However, it might be still be a good idea (in principle) to prevent "to big to fail" to be a competitive advantage when it comes to cost of borrowing.
FINRA Fires Next Shot in War Against Leveraged ETFs [View article]
Ignoring all of the other controversy about leveraged ETF's, this deals with a relatively narrow aspect of the product.
The question is, should margin differ if you borrow to purchase an underlying index versus a leveraged product?
The answer is clearly yes. The margin requirement should take into consideration the volatility of the underlying asset. It does seem like some of the new requirements are a bit high, but on principle, they should be differentiated.
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Latest | Highest ratedApples to Apples: Will History Repeat Itself as Android Gains on the iPhone? [View article]
Based on hype factor alone (which may, but won't necessarily turn into a market changing event), this could significantly change the market- but not in a Apple vs. Google way.
Yesterday, the market consisted of Apple and everyone else. Today, the market consists of Apple, Android, and everyone else. This affects the "everyone else" category much more than it affects Apple.
Down on the Farm: Do Farm Stocks Have a Place in a Balanced Portfolio? [View article]
Is there some reasoning here that I'm missing?
Sprint's Upcoming Phone Lineup: It Has to Do Better than That [View article]
Xbox 360 Upgrade: 1080p Streaming Quality Is Incredible [View article]
Overview: The new features in the xbox update are interesting, but only represented a small incremental improvement over what's already out there. To date, these updates are not impressive, but they show significant promise if MSFT is flexible with its business model and is willing to unite a lot of the disparate features with some type of unifying vision.
Zune movies: The instant on is pretty cool, however the content selection is sparce, and it is way too expensive. Not to mention, a lot of the content that you have to pay for through Zune is available for free on Netflix. Conceptually, they are on to something, but it's going to take some re-working for them to generate significant business.
Facebook: Sure, it's kind of neat to see Facebook on your TV, but the novelty didn't last long. Since there's no keyboard, it's hard to interact with. I could see it being valuable in the future if MSFT finds ways to integrate FB friends with other parts of the xbox experience.
Last.fm: I really like this feature. For those that still listen to FM radio in the home, this could entirely replace it, as long as you're willing to turn on the tv for music. I could see this becoming a popular feature.
Summary: Although some of the features are neat, none of them will drive significant new business. I was most disappointed in the Zune player. If it had included options to either rent or buy a good selection of content at lower prices than blockbuster, this could have been a game changer. As it stands now, they might see some incremental revenue, but nothing significant.
Why Apple Is Worth $80 [View article]
Remember one of the principle rules of investing. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Although I don't have the same numerical details, I'm inclined to partially agree with both Cramer and Kai. This stock has a lot of momentum, and will continue growing in the short (and maybe medium) term. However, at some point in the future, the growth rate will have to come down, and the multiple will compress. That's simple economics. It doesn't mean I'd ever consider shorting this stock though.
Akamai Acknowledges It's Not Delivering HD Video to the iPhone [View article]
I'm no HD expert, but it seems fairly obvious what you are and are not getting. I see your point on their marketing claims, but I also think you're splitting hairs on the details.
Dollar Hegemony Is Ending [View article]
For starters, there has to be something worthwhile to replace it with. And a basket of currencies makes no sense for a reserve currency. Fundamentally, a reserve currency is a currency that is used for a majority of cross border transactions. Business transactions aren't going to take place in 30% euros, 20% yet, 5 % swiss francs, or whatever they're proposing. That's just silly. And none of the other currencies out there serve as a suitable alternative for a variety of reasons.
The question that the article mentioned was the currency that oil is priced in. They can price it in any currency they want, and it doesn't change the value in relative dollars one bit. They could price it in gold, coffee beans, pork bellies, or foam pellets. A dollar will buy the same amount of oil. Not to mention they'd have a hell of a time getting the oil traders on board.
So yes, there is a lot of unsustainable debt out there. It will cause huge problems in the future. But the arab states and the Chinese only bring this up when they want something diplomatically. It won't change the dollars predominate use.
Will Windows 7 Resurrect IT Spending? [View article]
However, think of the functionality and utility difference between the last generation of basic computers and this generation of basic computers. There really isn't anything the newer computers can do that the older computers don't do.
So yes, the older computers will get upgraded over time. There will be some pent up demand. But there really won't be a huge rush to replace everything that is already working fine.
eBay Rolls Out More of the 'Top Rated Sellers' Program in Search - Sellers Aren't Happy [View article]
Add this to the plenty of anecdotal evidence I hear about how bad the company is to work for, and this seems like a perfect short all the way to $0. (someday)
Upholding the Sanctity of Contracts: Is Gazprom Listening? [View article]
Russia will do what makes sense to them at the moment, regardless of any piece of paper. In some cases, this extends to contracts written by their state owned/influenced companies as well. Invest there with the same caution you would use in Venezuela.
On Vanilla Products [View article]
Now I have an MBA in finance, and work with moderately complicated financial contracts daily. And what scares me is that I STILL cannot understand in detail half of the financial products being pitched to unsophisticated investors and consumers.
Bottom line; never invest in something you don't understand, and take responsibility for what you buy.
Cramer's Stop Trading! The Correction Is Coming (9/24/09) [View article]
However, I can't understand why people that hate him so much continue to read his articles and comment on them. Why don't you just go read articles from sources you like?
Misunderstanding Inflation: There's No Free Lunch [View article]
1. How do you measure asset price inflation? Different measurement methods will give vastly different results, all of which could be equally correct.
2. What tools (monetary or fiscal) are available to deal with a situation where there is high asset price inflation, but low product price inflation? Would those tools be politically feasible?
Can Higher Capital Standards Cause Lower Pay? [View article]
However, it might be still be a good idea (in principle) to prevent "to big to fail" to be a competitive advantage when it comes to cost of borrowing.
FINRA Fires Next Shot in War Against Leveraged ETFs [View article]
The question is, should margin differ if you borrow to purchase an underlying index versus a leveraged product?
The answer is clearly yes. The margin requirement should take into consideration the volatility of the underlying asset. It does seem like some of the new requirements are a bit high, but on principle, they should be differentiated.