bcncv's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/116519/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/176191-gold-bubble-represents-market-irrationality?source=feed#comment-787006 787006
If the theory of the commenters about a debased currency on this blog is correct, a 70% increase in the price of gold should correspond to a 70% drop in what the US dollar can purchase. True or not true? Does this match what you see in your local corner store?]]> Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:40:53 -0500
If the theory of the commenters about a debased currency on this blog is correct, a 70% increase in the price of gold should correspond to a 70% drop in what the US dollar can purchase. True or not true? Does this match what you see in your local corner store?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175616-rooftop-solar-generation-ready-for-prime-time?source=feed#comment-783220 783220
Let's say at some point in the future, 50% of LA has solar panels installed. What happens when there's a big cloud or a solar eclipse? Numerous other power plants would have to come on line much faster than is physically possible. Then when the cloud goes away, you get a humongous power surge that could literally blow out the electric grid. Texas had some huge problems with this in wind power a few years back.

Solar might be feasible for ~5% of the power requirements, but more than that and you'll have the problems of duplicating infrastructure and an unpredictable grid. We're still a long ways from that limit, but it must be kept in mind before proposing a massive distributed energy scheme.]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 16:37:14 -0500
Let's say at some point in the future, 50% of LA has solar panels installed. What happens when there's a big cloud or a solar eclipse? Numerous other power plants would have to come on line much faster than is physically possible. Then when the cloud goes away, you get a humongous power surge that could literally blow out the electric grid. Texas had some huge problems with this in wind power a few years back.

Solar might be feasible for ~5% of the power requirements, but more than that and you'll have the problems of duplicating infrastructure and an unpredictable grid. We're still a long ways from that limit, but it must be kept in mind before proposing a massive distributed energy scheme.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175322-murdochs-bing-bluster-will-hurt-news-corp-not-google?source=feed#comment-779218 779218
Murdoch's rationale that web traffic alone does not pay for content is spot on. Showing story "previews" might be worthwhile, but there is zero value in showing content for free, so why do it?

And the threat from Google is not directly from Newscorp. The long term threat to Google is if a public perception grows that a Google search won't find you anything you want on the web. That's a long ways off, but it could completely reshape the search market. Would you continue to use Google if you knew that sites you want are specifically hidden from your search?]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 03:23:45 -0500
Murdoch's rationale that web traffic alone does not pay for content is spot on. Showing story "previews" might be worthwhile, but there is zero value in showing content for free, so why do it?

And the threat from Google is not directly from Newscorp. The long term threat to Google is if a public perception grows that a Google search won't find you anything you want on the web. That's a long ways off, but it could completely reshape the search market. Would you continue to use Google if you knew that sites you want are specifically hidden from your search?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174831-will-microsoft-get-squeezed-by-chrome-os?source=feed#comment-775836 775836
For some of the sub-segments:

1. Netbooks/Chrome will be the dominant choice among students IF schools start accepting Google Doc formats as a standard. Although I don't know anything about the educations systems policy on this, but I imagine it would be likely with the current budget cuts.

2. Business users will only switch if Google Docs becomes accepted as a universal format. I've anecdotaly heard of a few companies switching, but I don't see it happening broadly anytime soon.

3. Home users will keep their Windows systems with very few exceptions. Some homes might purchase a second machine running Chrome, but this can be viewed as an expansion of the market rather than a shift in market share.]]> Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:34:41 -0500
For some of the sub-segments:

1. Netbooks/Chrome will be the dominant choice among students IF schools start accepting Google Doc formats as a standard. Although I don't know anything about the educations systems policy on this, but I imagine it would be likely with the current budget cuts.

2. Business users will only switch if Google Docs becomes accepted as a universal format. I've anecdotaly heard of a few companies switching, but I don't see it happening broadly anytime soon.

3. Home users will keep their Windows systems with very few exceptions. Some homes might purchase a second machine running Chrome, but this can be viewed as an expansion of the market rather than a shift in market share.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170801-apples-to-apples-will-history-repeat-itself-as-android-gains-on-the-iphone?source=feed#comment-748471 748471
Based on hype factor alone (which may, but won't necessarily turn into a market changing event), this could significantly change the market- but not in a Apple vs. Google way.

Yesterday, the market consisted of Apple and everyone else. Today, the market consists of Apple, Android, and everyone else. This affects the "everyone else" category much more than it affects Apple. ]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:44:05 -0500
Based on hype factor alone (which may, but won't necessarily turn into a market changing event), this could significantly change the market- but not in a Apple vs. Google way.

Yesterday, the market consisted of Apple and everyone else. Today, the market consists of Apple, Android, and everyone else. This affects the "everyone else" category much more than it affects Apple. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169830-down-on-the-farm-do-farm-stocks-have-a-place-in-a-balanced-portfolio?source=feed#comment-739448 739448
Is there some reasoning here that I'm missing?]]> Sun, 01 Nov 2009 13:51:02 -0500
Is there some reasoning here that I'm missing?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170144-sprint-s-upcoming-phone-lineup-it-has-to-do-better-than-that?source=feed#comment-738757 738757 Sat, 31 Oct 2009 19:38:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167464-xbox-360-upgrade-1080p-streaming-quality-is-incredible?source=feed#comment-738751 738751
Overview: The new features in the xbox update are interesting, but only represented a small incremental improvement over what's already out there. To date, these updates are not impressive, but they show significant promise if MSFT is flexible with its business model and is willing to unite a lot of the disparate features with some type of unifying vision.

Zune movies: The instant on is pretty cool, however the content selection is sparce, and it is way too expensive. Not to mention, a lot of the content that you have to pay for through Zune is available for free on Netflix. Conceptually, they are on to something, but it's going to take some re-working for them to generate significant business.

Facebook: Sure, it's kind of neat to see Facebook on your TV, but the novelty didn't last long. Since there's no keyboard, it's hard to interact with. I could see it being valuable in the future if MSFT finds ways to integrate FB friends with other parts of the xbox experience.

Last.fm: I really like this feature. For those that still listen to FM radio in the home, this could entirely replace it, as long as you're willing to turn on the tv for music. I could see this becoming a popular feature.

Summary: Although some of the features are neat, none of them will drive significant new business. I was most disappointed in the Zune player. If it had included options to either rent or buy a good selection of content at lower prices than blockbuster, this could have been a game changer. As it stands now, they might see some incremental revenue, but nothing significant.]]> Sat, 31 Oct 2009 19:31:33 -0400
Overview: The new features in the xbox update are interesting, but only represented a small incremental improvement over what's already out there. To date, these updates are not impressive, but they show significant promise if MSFT is flexible with its business model and is willing to unite a lot of the disparate features with some type of unifying vision.

Zune movies: The instant on is pretty cool, however the content selection is sparce, and it is way too expensive. Not to mention, a lot of the content that you have to pay for through Zune is available for free on Netflix. Conceptually, they are on to something, but it's going to take some re-working for them to generate significant business.

Facebook: Sure, it's kind of neat to see Facebook on your TV, but the novelty didn't last long. Since there's no keyboard, it's hard to interact with. I could see it being valuable in the future if MSFT finds ways to integrate FB friends with other parts of the xbox experience.

Last.fm: I really like this feature. For those that still listen to FM radio in the home, this could entirely replace it, as long as you're willing to turn on the tv for music. I could see this becoming a popular feature.

Summary: Although some of the features are neat, none of them will drive significant new business. I was most disappointed in the Zune player. If it had included options to either rent or buy a good selection of content at lower prices than blockbuster, this could have been a game changer. As it stands now, they might see some incremental revenue, but nothing significant.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168697-why-apple-is-worth-80?source=feed#comment-731845 731845
Remember one of the principle rules of investing. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Although I don't have the same numerical details, I'm inclined to partially agree with both Cramer and Kai. This stock has a lot of momentum, and will continue growing in the short (and maybe medium) term. However, at some point in the future, the growth rate will have to come down, and the multiple will compress. That's simple economics. It doesn't mean I'd ever consider shorting this stock though.]]> Tue, 27 Oct 2009 02:09:32 -0400
Remember one of the principle rules of investing. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Although I don't have the same numerical details, I'm inclined to partially agree with both Cramer and Kai. This stock has a lot of momentum, and will continue growing in the short (and maybe medium) term. However, at some point in the future, the growth rate will have to come down, and the multiple will compress. That's simple economics. It doesn't mean I'd ever consider shorting this stock though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167179-akamai-acknowledges-it-s-not-delivering-hd-video-to-the-iphone?source=feed#comment-719597 719597
I'm no HD expert, but it seems fairly obvious what you are and are not getting. I see your point on their marketing claims, but I also think you're splitting hairs on the details.]]> Sun, 18 Oct 2009 14:53:11 -0400
I'm no HD expert, but it seems fairly obvious what you are and are not getting. I see your point on their marketing claims, but I also think you're splitting hairs on the details.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165035-dollar-hegemony-is-ending?source=feed#comment-706312 706312
For starters, there has to be something worthwhile to replace it with. And a basket of currencies makes no sense for a reserve currency. Fundamentally, a reserve currency is a currency that is used for a majority of cross border transactions. Business transactions aren't going to take place in 30% euros, 20% yet, 5 % swiss francs, or whatever they're proposing. That's just silly. And none of the other currencies out there serve as a suitable alternative for a variety of reasons.

The question that the article mentioned was the currency that oil is priced in. They can price it in any currency they want, and it doesn't change the value in relative dollars one bit. They could price it in gold, coffee beans, pork bellies, or foam pellets. A dollar will buy the same amount of oil. Not to mention they'd have a hell of a time getting the oil traders on board.

So yes, there is a lot of unsustainable debt out there. It will cause huge problems in the future. But the arab states and the Chinese only bring this up when they want something diplomatically. It won't change the dollars predominate use.]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 00:31:01 -0400
For starters, there has to be something worthwhile to replace it with. And a basket of currencies makes no sense for a reserve currency. Fundamentally, a reserve currency is a currency that is used for a majority of cross border transactions. Business transactions aren't going to take place in 30% euros, 20% yet, 5 % swiss francs, or whatever they're proposing. That's just silly. And none of the other currencies out there serve as a suitable alternative for a variety of reasons.

The question that the article mentioned was the currency that oil is priced in. They can price it in any currency they want, and it doesn't change the value in relative dollars one bit. They could price it in gold, coffee beans, pork bellies, or foam pellets. A dollar will buy the same amount of oil. Not to mention they'd have a hell of a time getting the oil traders on board.

So yes, there is a lot of unsustainable debt out there. It will cause huge problems in the future. But the arab states and the Chinese only bring this up when they want something diplomatically. It won't change the dollars predominate use.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164726-will-windows-7-resurrect-it-spending?source=feed#comment-703041 703041
However, think of the functionality and utility difference between the last generation of basic computers and this generation of basic computers. There really isn't anything the newer computers can do that the older computers don't do.

So yes, the older computers will get upgraded over time. There will be some pent up demand. But there really won't be a huge rush to replace everything that is already working fine.]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 20:40:43 -0400
However, think of the functionality and utility difference between the last generation of basic computers and this generation of basic computers. There really isn't anything the newer computers can do that the older computers don't do.

So yes, the older computers will get upgraded over time. There will be some pent up demand. But there really won't be a huge rush to replace everything that is already working fine.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164146-ebay-rolls-out-more-of-the-top-rated-sellers-program-in-search-sellers-aren-t-happy?source=feed#comment-698077 698077
Add this to the plenty of anecdotal evidence I hear about how bad the company is to work for, and this seems like a perfect short all the way to $0. (someday)]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 02:31:10 -0400
Add this to the plenty of anecdotal evidence I hear about how bad the company is to work for, and this seems like a perfect short all the way to $0. (someday)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160382-upholding-the-sanctity-of-contracts-is-gazprom-listening?source=feed#comment-697097 697097
Russia will do what makes sense to them at the moment, regardless of any piece of paper. In some cases, this extends to contracts written by their state owned/influenced companies as well. Invest there with the same caution you would use in Venezuela.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 13:51:35 -0400
Russia will do what makes sense to them at the moment, regardless of any piece of paper. In some cases, this extends to contracts written by their state owned/influenced companies as well. Invest there with the same caution you would use in Venezuela.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163551-on-vanilla-products?source=feed#comment-694894 694894
Now I have an MBA in finance, and work with moderately complicated financial contracts daily. And what scares me is that I STILL cannot understand in detail half of the financial products being pitched to unsophisticated investors and consumers.

Bottom line; never invest in something you don't understand, and take responsibility for what you buy.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 00:32:48 -0400
Now I have an MBA in finance, and work with moderately complicated financial contracts daily. And what scares me is that I STILL cannot understand in detail half of the financial products being pitched to unsophisticated investors and consumers.

Bottom line; never invest in something you don't understand, and take responsibility for what you buy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163088-cramer-s-stop-trading-the-correction-is-coming-9-24-09?source=feed#comment-694634 694634
However, I can't understand why people that hate him so much continue to read his articles and comment on them. Why don't you just go read articles from sources you like?]]> Mon, 28 Sep 2009 19:12:59 -0400
However, I can't understand why people that hate him so much continue to read his articles and comment on them. Why don't you just go read articles from sources you like?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160621-misunderstanding-inflation-there-s-no-free-lunch?source=feed#comment-669104 669104
1. How do you measure asset price inflation? Different measurement methods will give vastly different results, all of which could be equally correct.

2. What tools (monetary or fiscal) are available to deal with a situation where there is high asset price inflation, but low product price inflation? Would those tools be politically feasible?]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 13:50:39 -0400
1. How do you measure asset price inflation? Different measurement methods will give vastly different results, all of which could be equally correct.

2. What tools (monetary or fiscal) are available to deal with a situation where there is high asset price inflation, but low product price inflation? Would those tools be politically feasible?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160024-can-higher-capital-standards-cause-lower-pay?source=feed#comment-662346 662346
However, it might be still be a good idea (in principle) to prevent "to big to fail" to be a competitive advantage when it comes to cost of borrowing. ]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 15:29:06 -0400
However, it might be still be a good idea (in principle) to prevent "to big to fail" to be a competitive advantage when it comes to cost of borrowing. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159629-finra-fires-next-shot-in-war-against-leveraged-etfs?source=feed#comment-658809 658809
The question is, should margin differ if you borrow to purchase an underlying index versus a leveraged product?

The answer is clearly yes. The margin requirement should take into consideration the volatility of the underlying asset. It does seem like some of the new requirements are a bit high, but on principle, they should be differentiated. ]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 14:53:46 -0400
The question is, should margin differ if you borrow to purchase an underlying index versus a leveraged product?

The answer is clearly yes. The margin requirement should take into consideration the volatility of the underlying asset. It does seem like some of the new requirements are a bit high, but on principle, they should be differentiated. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159013-seracare-five-reasons-to-buy-this-biotech-microcap-with-recurrent-revenue?source=feed#comment-655366 655366
Although thinking about what a bond convent would look like creates an interesting mental image.]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 17:26:44 -0400
Although thinking about what a bond convent would look like creates an interesting mental image.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158875-distinction-between-positive-and-normative-economics-misses-the-point?source=feed#comment-653580 653580
As much as policymakers try to pretend they're looking for the best solution, their actions betray that entire concept. In every government in the world, policy actions are dictated by what a politician thinks will work, and what they got elected on. Economists are only brought in later to prove the position, not to validate it.

The current health care debate is a perfect example. It's a political battle being waged on 100% ideology. Do you really think anyone on either side would change their position if a positive economic analysis disputed their beliefs? That research is out there, but no one cares. ]]> Sun, 30 Aug 2009 14:08:29 -0400
As much as policymakers try to pretend they're looking for the best solution, their actions betray that entire concept. In every government in the world, policy actions are dictated by what a politician thinks will work, and what they got elected on. Economists are only brought in later to prove the position, not to validate it.

The current health care debate is a perfect example. It's a political battle being waged on 100% ideology. Do you really think anyone on either side would change their position if a positive economic analysis disputed their beliefs? That research is out there, but no one cares. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158112-should-goldman-get-in-trouble-over-information-sharing?source=feed#comment-650173 650173
If there's a policy in writing that says the standard accounts get access to X and the premium accounts (clearly defined) get access to X and Y, then there is no problem.

If they represent that every client has access to all Goldman research, then they are in the wrong, both legally and morally.

From the sound of it, they were clearly in the wrong, but the reporting was also biased. Who knows?]]> Thu, 27 Aug 2009 22:58:07 -0400
If there's a policy in writing that says the standard accounts get access to X and the premium accounts (clearly defined) get access to X and Y, then there is no problem.

If they represent that every client has access to all Goldman research, then they are in the wrong, both legally and morally.

From the sound of it, they were clearly in the wrong, but the reporting was also biased. Who knows?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158173-4-dividend-stocks-to-hedge-against-social-security-failure?source=feed#comment-649886 649886
What I am concerned about, is how they're going to hide the offsetting costs of these benefits. My guess is that they will print the money, or write the IOU's from other holes in the budget. With the excess money supply, the fed will start jacking up interest rates, impeding future growth. We'll pay for it through inflation and slower growth, and never see an additional dime taken out of our checks.

So, I'll say that Social Security will remain around, but it will be much less valuable than it is today. For my personal retirement planning, I'm assuming it will grow at half the rate of inflation, but I'm preparing for less. ]]> Thu, 27 Aug 2009 19:34:53 -0400
What I am concerned about, is how they're going to hide the offsetting costs of these benefits. My guess is that they will print the money, or write the IOU's from other holes in the budget. With the excess money supply, the fed will start jacking up interest rates, impeding future growth. We'll pay for it through inflation and slower growth, and never see an additional dime taken out of our checks.

So, I'll say that Social Security will remain around, but it will be much less valuable than it is today. For my personal retirement planning, I'm assuming it will grow at half the rate of inflation, but I'm preparing for less. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158112-should-goldman-get-in-trouble-over-information-sharing?source=feed#comment-646659 646659
Fair dealing is fair dealing. It's a matter of law, and part of the ethics code of organizations such as the CFA institute. If anyone involved held a CFA charter, they should instantly be under investigation to have their charter revoked.

Now I have no idea how they marketed their research. If they were careful (which I doubt they were) this type of thing CAN be done right. If it's explicitly stated in your agreement with GS that your account size gets you long term research reports, but you have to pay extra for short term tips, that is one thing. If they gave preferential treatment to accounts that were technically identical, they are clearly in the wrong. ]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 01:59:44 -0400
Fair dealing is fair dealing. It's a matter of law, and part of the ethics code of organizations such as the CFA institute. If anyone involved held a CFA charter, they should instantly be under investigation to have their charter revoked.

Now I have no idea how they marketed their research. If they were careful (which I doubt they were) this type of thing CAN be done right. If it's explicitly stated in your agreement with GS that your account size gets you long term research reports, but you have to pay extra for short term tips, that is one thing. If they gave preferential treatment to accounts that were technically identical, they are clearly in the wrong. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156918-do-tips-etfs-make-sense?source=feed#comment-645877 645877
I've stuck with mutual funds for bond holdings, as it makes the reinvestment much easier and cheaper. The mutual fund fees are lower than the brokerage fee's of reinvesting interest income (at least for a holding as small as mine).

Is there something else I'm missing?]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 15:25:22 -0400
I've stuck with mutual funds for bond holdings, as it makes the reinvestment much easier and cheaper. The mutual fund fees are lower than the brokerage fee's of reinvesting interest income (at least for a holding as small as mine).

Is there something else I'm missing?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157785-china-exactly-where-japan-was-in-the-1980s?source=feed#comment-642810 642810
When the good times eventually end in China, it will probably be dramatic and fast. It might start with a bank failure, or a stock market crash. I've read several reputable accounts claiming that a large percentage (as much as 50%) of the new Chinese stimulus money was poured into the stock market through cheap (0-2%) "business loans". All it will take is a shake in confidence, or a percentage of these loans to be called for the same money to come rushing out of the stock market.

That being said, it will take a significant catalyst for the illusion to fall apart. The same underlying problems have existed for multiple years now. The Chinese authorities have proven very adept at managing these problems. They could manifest themselves next week, or we might not see them for ten years.]]> Mon, 24 Aug 2009 02:38:49 -0400
When the good times eventually end in China, it will probably be dramatic and fast. It might start with a bank failure, or a stock market crash. I've read several reputable accounts claiming that a large percentage (as much as 50%) of the new Chinese stimulus money was poured into the stock market through cheap (0-2%) "business loans". All it will take is a shake in confidence, or a percentage of these loans to be called for the same money to come rushing out of the stock market.

That being said, it will take a significant catalyst for the illusion to fall apart. The same underlying problems have existed for multiple years now. The Chinese authorities have proven very adept at managing these problems. They could manifest themselves next week, or we might not see them for ten years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157568-ramping-up-china-s-domestic-consumption-what-s-taking-so-long?source=feed#comment-640703 640703
The central government knows this very well. As much as they'd like to see consumer spending increase, they're not willing to risk the unstability caused by the required increase in unemployment. ]]> Fri, 21 Aug 2009 22:48:53 -0400
The central government knows this very well. As much as they'd like to see consumer spending increase, they're not willing to risk the unstability caused by the required increase in unemployment. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155760-a-new-look-at-the-four-bad-bears?source=feed#comment-637341 637341
If there's one thing we can be sure of, it's that the chart of this recovery WONT look like the charts of previous ones. ]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 20:27:22 -0400
If there's one thing we can be sure of, it's that the chart of this recovery WONT look like the charts of previous ones. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156196-everyone-wants-a-national-broadband-network-but-nobody-wants-to-pay-for-it?source=feed#comment-633610 633610
Intuitively, it seems like it could be done with much less infrastructure, but I don't know the market or technical limitations well enough to really judge. ]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 15:45:39 -0400
Intuitively, it seems like it could be done with much less infrastructure, but I don't know the market or technical limitations well enough to really judge. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155481-atticus-pinched?source=feed#comment-625601 625601
Not that it makes it right. ]]> Tue, 11 Aug 2009 17:44:23 -0400
Not that it makes it right. ]]>