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A New Look at the Four Bad Bears

I'm always skeptical of this type of analysis.

If there's one thing we can be sure of, it's that the chart of this recovery WONT look like the charts of previous ones.

Don't Invest Like the Dow

Good article.

Over the last few months, I've also had a related question that I haven't been able to answer. What would the value of the DJIA be today if GM had been given the boot 6 months - 1 year ago? Would the index be significantly higher if Cisco had been in for a ~30% drop instead of GM's 100% drop?

This has always interested me. On one level, index's (especially the DJIA) are pretty silly, yet most fund managers have such a hard time beating it.

Why We Over-Weight Emerging Markets

I agree with the general thesis that emerging markets will offer superior growth opportunities over the long term. However, to make this work you need pay close attention to your allocation within emerging markets. The countries that performed best during the last economic cycle are not necessarily the ones that will perform best this time. As always, diversification helps, but a little research can help avoid some serious pitfalls.

Preventing the Depression of 2009

So essentially the government will create a risk free set of securities based upon risky assets?

This has got to be one of the WORST ideas I've ever heard. Wouldn't this guarantee a mis-allocation of capital?

Cramer: Dow Could Drop Another 14%, Oil's Going to $50

Cramer does have some insightful things to say, but it's hard to take him too seriously. The man is completely bipolar. This week, stocks are down big, therefore the world will end. Stocks will be up at some point next month which will then be the time to invest everything. Has Cramer ever had a counter-trend opinion?

The Economic Cost of the Military Industrial Complex

Yes, defense is expensive. Have you tried considering the cost of NOT spending on defense?

As a platoon leader in Iraq (2003-2004) I had more than $2 million worth of equipment for my 32 soldiers. Yes, that was expensive. However, that expensive equipment is what let me bring all 32 soldiers home. In one specific instance, I can credit thermal optics ($.5 million each) with saving the lives of myself and ten others.

My question to you: If one of your sons were in the military, would your beliefs on defense spending change?

Is the Great Moderation in Danger?

What about globalization? The jobs most likely to be lost in a recession are assembly line jobs. Since a MUCH larger percentage of end manufacturing occurs in China these days, could we have simply off-shored the parts of our economy most vulnerable to a recession?

The Fed Cannot Resolve a Solvency Crisis

Thank you for the great article.
Question though:
From my admittedly incomplete knowledge, I thought that one of the practical effects of a rate cut was to allow banks to re-capitalize their balance sheets (at least in the mid term). By depressing the short end of the yield curve, banks are able to raise funds more cheaply, while their income still comes from 30 year mortgages at ~5.5-6%. I know this doesn't have the immediate impact of massive write downs, but it does seem like a path out for the better managed banks.
Again, my banking knowledge is limited, so let me know if my logic is incorrect.

Greenspan: U.S. Recession Far From A Done Deal

Well I'm gad to hear that there wouldn't be any problems if someone from this forum was running things.