rd4sndk

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21 Comments

    • Wed May 14th 08:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What's Better: BlackBerry or iPhone?
      Too much attention is given to business class and the key board for mobile use. My disappointment with the BB bold is it missed having sufficient memory, the OS was inferior and the LCD is not competitive with the iphone. However, this is a good start and I suspect RIMM will have additional releases that will be more competitive. The bold is not the answer to the iphone let alone the 3G version.

      Lastly, its clear that Apple is not building iphones to compete with RIMM or any other cell phone OEM. What is clear to me that Apple is building an interconnected multimedia ecosystem. The iphone is one of two devices that will spear head this interconnectivity multimedia rich experience--the ipod-touch and to a lesser degree the iTV products. Follow the announcements and you'll see that browsing the web, viewing TV, viewing motion picture releases, listening to music, and reviewing pictures are all coming together in the ipod-touch and iphone. The PC, laptop, DVD,phone, TV and jukebox are morphing into smaller mobile devices and Apple is leading the way. All other discussion is superpulous. Now ask yourself why would you buy any other product than the Apple mobile platforms when you can get all of this in one product as opposed to just business class email.
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    • Sun May 4th 16:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      STEC Design Win at Apple: Short-lived Catalyst?
      Before you start counting Intel and Samsung chickens, you should first wait until they meet the design constraints. No one has produced a SSD at performance and price points like STEC. If Sandisk was smart they would scoop up STEC ASAP before its too late. Intel is targetting 2H08 and Sandisk 2009. Both are at least a year behind STEC in performance specs and customer qualifications. My money's on STEC. A bird in the hand is worth Intel or Sandisk in the bush.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 09:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple to Experience Market Share Madness
      Good article. The first I've experienced about apple that paints a picture that is overwhelmingly attractive. However, Apple longs have long since understood all your major points. However, you failed to mention the other two major markets-- software and services. Software contribution to Apples earnings will grow exponentially as Apples OS competes with Windows and linux. Just a 20% share of Windows OS business will add another $150/share not to mention Apples in negotiation to buy Windows office suite for Apple. On top of that, as the Mac becomes more palletable to IT managers, software sells will rise even faster. On top of that, a hold host of software tools will be sold for iphone, ipod and macbook apps.

      The second mark is services. Apple will build this as a brand which will have lower margins but contribute a boat load to the revenue side.

      In my view, Apple is moving from a 3 legged chair to a 6 legged couch.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 16th 11:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      SanDisk: Risk Down $3, Reward Up $30
      I'm sorry but you are late to the party as are most analyst and MM. Dispite all of your partificating around nand spot pricing, Sandisk has never been and is currently not dependent to much extent on spot pricing of nand. One need only look at 2006 numbers where you analyst were expecting, for most of that year, for sandisk to report disappointing earnings. Stock price fail based on your flawed understanding of Sandisk business model a value proposition. However, earnings increased 25% while Revenue increase over 75%. Need more proof that you're full of hot air? Look no further than 1Q07 when nand pricing fail 24% during the quarter but Sandisk, unlike other semi providers that report huge losses in their Nand operations, reported inline earnings (excluding impact of mystems acquisition).

      Sandisk global market share expansion and improved cost efficientcies from its latest card assembly plant, increasing average card density is what's currently fueling its top/bottom line growth. Additionally, inventories are low going into the 1Q08 at a time when YoY demand is accellarating.

      Although I agree with some of your reasoning, your inability to evaluate Sandisk as card producer and the only one of its kind leaves me to reject your analysis for investment advise. However, these monkeys that listen to you control the price of the stock and for that reason I appauld your positive although ill imformed opinion.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 28th 06:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Micron, SanDisk Struggle with Memory
      You're exactly why Sandisk price doesn't reflect its earnings and earnings growth. If you knew anything about sandisk you would know that its not a semi-conductor component supplier--despite analyst attempts to paint it as one. What Eli has done was to evolve sandisk into a vertically integrated mfg of flash memory cards and Consumer Electronics business model that is protected by fundamental Nand IP.

      This is unique in that most companies abandoned vertically integrated semiconductor business when the Japanese and then the Koreans took over the semiconductor fab business and made it into a commondity business.

      Eli correctly assumed as you do in your article that the business of consuming chips will be better than the business of making them. By partnering with Toshiba, Sandisk has an advantage over all consumers of nand as long as they stay at fabrication leading edge. It also has an advantage over the semiconductor suppliers by its fundamental IP.

      There was only once in the past 7 years that Sandisk business model didn't work and that was last year when they absorbed both matrix and msystem in one year. Prior to that, you analyst kept looking for Sandisk earnings to turn south against lexar and the other nand consumers as their business model was based on Nand as a commodity. We all know what happened to Lexar.

      With the msystem acquisition behind them, we longs are looking for Sandisk to get back to operating margins of 20% and earnings growth of 25%. It's interesting that if you plot the earnings of Sandisk and the price of its stock on the same graph, you will see that Sandisk is the most misunderstood company I know.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 24th 21:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Depending on Long-Term Aggressive Growth for Apple is a Gamble
      Apples currently growing earnings above 65%annully. Gross Margins are expanding, the leading product line is gaining market share and they just release two hardware products that will require paid software upgrades inwhich margins are typically 90%+. So how do you justify a 25% earnings growth in the face of these numbers. Think of Apple as a combination of several companies:

      Microsoft - for its operating system SW apps (90% GM)
      RIMM - for its smart phone (60% GM)
      Dell - for its computer equipment (45% GM)
      Apple - for its mobile media devices-ipods (55% GM)
      Best Buy - Services and Electronic retailing (40% GM)
      Amazon - Content distribution (50% GM)
      AT&T - for its mobile subscription revenue (100% GM)

      Now in 2 years from now, make an estimate as to how much market share Apple will have of each of these markets and you'll see what the rest of us Apple investers are betting on. Apple could become the largest company in the world bar none. Can't happen? Google is only 5 years old and has a market cap greater than MS, IBM, Nokia, Intel and others. In 2 years Apple could have a market cap of $500B if it continues to grow at the pass its growing today--doubling every year. The odds are greater for my valuation than yours. 25% a year!!! What a laugh; you must have been drinking when you wrote that. You were just kidding right? come on just kidding right?
      View article »
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