rd4sndk

All Quiet on the DRAM Front: Can Micron Survive the War of Attrition?

I can not believe someone is trying to put lipstick on this pig of an investment. You should try a list of worstening scenarios that suggest under what conditions would micron become insolvent. As I see it, smart money will start to exit micron no later than 1Q09 and that micron will receive a bit somewhere in the 2Q09. At a current market cap of $3.4B (4.4 pps), it's p/b at 50% would suggest that with a little further deteriation in its share price, one can pick up at least two 300mm mfg plants for the fire sale price of $4 Billion. Throw in the other operations and a hefty 25% layoff after acquisition micron is ripe for the picken. Buying micron would benefit Samsung or Hynix well as all two are in the 3 basic businesses that Micron operates. Sandisk would also benefit in buying Micron because they would eliminate another major nand competitor while improving its royalty stream, and more importantly give Sandisk an upper edge in removing Intel from the nand business. If Sandisk were to buy Micron, this could usher in a greater collaboration between Intel and Sandisk and would go further to solidify Sandisk/Toshiba partnership as the defacto standard for nand chips and cards.