steve Ward

Total Rating:
+1 / 0

184 Comments

    • Mon Jun 2nd 15:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Exxon Mobil Defeats the Rockefellers
      Last time I looked the US used only 1.5 percent of its total crude consumption for power generation. The rest went to transportation fuels and chemicals.

      Somebody, anybody, please explain to me how any oil company diverting funds to wind power and solar will give the public lower gasoline and diesel prices. Yet, evertime a politician opens there mouth they want to tax Big Oil and plow the funds into green power generation technologies. They are using their wind power to blow sunshine up our exhaust pipes.
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    • Mon Jun 2nd 03:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      John Hussman: Assessing Oil in Contango
      The price rise of oil, more than doubling, in just 18 months cannot hold. Chinese hoarding for the Olympics, Iranian hoarding, speculators leaving the dollar and buying oil, all add up to something greater than demand even though demand is greater than last year and will continue to rise.

      Something gives very soon in the next 6 months.
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 2nd 03:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Peyto Energy Trust: A Truly Unique Energy Investment
      Good article. Peyto is a fine examplee of a trust that pays a common sense dividend. I look to see Peyto bought out sometime after 2011, though fxtrader07 makes afine point on the valuation possibilities. Nonetheless, Peyto either acquires or is acquired and I think the latter will mean a higher price than today's.
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    • Mon Jun 2nd 02:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Penn West Energy: More Questions Than Answers
      Jack, all that is good, but 1 billion in capex this year and next is already planned. I'm saying they need more money in capex to stop and fully reverse production slide which is now occuring.
      Especially for the unconventional assets which are their largest.

      But ask Nunns for guidance metrics on future production and reserve growth. Please do so on a diluted share basis. Let's hope some analysts are on the next CC and not ignoring it as last time.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 1st 15:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Penn West Energy: More Questions Than Answers
      Jack, I do have questions we should put to Nunns and Company.
      Production and Reserve Growth Guidance Metrics:

      !. go 4 quarters out with a full share dilution
      2. Breakout into 4 categories
      a. natural gas
      b. light crude and gas liquids
      c.medium and heavy crude
      d. unconventional gas

      On a quartely basis all the above, per fully diluted share basis, inclusive of DRIP and Executive compensatuion.
      Most Canadian companies put this out all the time and give guidance a year in advance even with step out and in-fill drilling. PWE can do the same, particularly with Nunns' E & P model.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 1st 14:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Penn West Energy: More Questions Than Answers
      Jack, maybe we are arguing how many angels can sit on the head of a pin. Maybe nunns is trying to "thread the needle" so to speak, raising enough cap ex to stop declining production and maintain a dividend at current levels.

      Oil price plays a significant role in all the above, in cap ex and dividend. I have serious doubts about production remaining stable after in fill and stepout drilling is completed. I have serious doubts that in-fill and stepout drilling can eliminate the decline at all.

      I'm not arguing the cash being generated, at these prices PWE should do 600 million over the 2.5 billion cap ex and dividend budget. I'm arguing PWE and its shareholders would be far better off with a model that resembles Crescent Point Energy Trust, where strong production increases as well as price doubled the unit price from December 06 to today. PWE has such a chance and I'm of the opinion management will come to a similar conclusion that in order to stop production slide and clean up balance sheet extra cap ex must come from the dividend.
      PWE will need alot more cash to develop the all the remaining assets. Easy assets are over, extraction of the tough assets must begin.
      Obviously PWE management very well may wait until Jan. 2011 to cut the dividend, that would be wrong to wait so long.
      Also, under the Safe Harbour Laws, American citizens do not fair well at all compared to their Canadian counterparts on the dividend no matter PWE's tax pools to protect income.
      These guys ( PWE management) are playing a game I just don't know what the ultimate scenario is.
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    • Sun Jun 1st 13:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      CKX Land Mystery Solved
      "A sleepy Louisiana Land company", I find fascinationg. Particularly after the price action. eric, if you have time keep following the sleepy little land company. Something's afoot. SSN is interesting as well. I wonder about come cross ownership here.
      But do this only if you have time.
      View article »
    • Fri May 30th 00:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Penn West Energy: More Questions Than Answers
      I never had so much fun. Mention PWE at a cocktail party and you get one new friend and one enemy, no matter your position.

      OK, mea culpa, DRIPS and employee compensation isn't bad at all. My boo boo.
      In fact I think PWE at these oil and gas prices, at least until the summer Olympics are over, will generate slightly more than 3 billion. so why am I down on PWE..
      Only higher oil prices have pulled it out of the share tailspin.

      As far as what PWE is going to do with anything over 2.5 billion; in Nunns' own words it goes like this:

      For 2008, pay down 500 million in debt.

      For 2009:1, Increase stepout drilling, development drilling and exploration

      2. Paydown more debt. No specific number given

      3. Maybe increase the dividend, "a little"

      Gentlemen, one thing I keep harping about and no one speaks to: Nunns himself says that the model will look more like an E&P company in 2 to 3 years
      E &P's require more money, coupled with the statement from Nunns that they want full CO2 for their legacy assets from a single supplier per asset, no more joint suppliers. That costs alot of money as in pipelines. Tar sands, oil sands, even more money.
      Another big problem that no one knows the answer to until they spend a billion or so and that is 4.1 miilion unexplored acres. Nunns states in 2 to 3 years that is where they are headed for 66 percent of the cap budget. That is a good thing. But why wait that long?
      But Bui is right when he says balance sheet is worse (2 billion in Good Will is not something to forget about) and production is headed in the wrong direction. That's why they hired Nunns to be CEO, he is a geologist. They will be licky to maintain BOED at 200m to 210m for the next 5 years.
      The future for the whole company lies in the oil sands and the 4.1 million acres and more towards the 4.1 million acres for the immediate. They simply can't do all of that on 1 billion cap budget a year and meet their 2012 deadline on tertiary recovery for the legacy assets. a year.

      The irony is that if PWE cut the dividend entirely they would have at current projections 6 billion additional in funds over 5 years, currently that would give you 100 to 150 thousand a day in oil sands production alone at current costs. Or put the 6 billion in the 4.1 million exploration acres where the ROI would be higher still.
      To heck with the dividend, where is the production growth?

      Jack, the Canadian analysts look at 3 things
      1. Production Growth
      2. Production Growth
      3. Production Growth

      Canetic and Vault have not provided any yet. Don't get mad at me about your divedend not being increased, blame Nunns, he laid out the priorities.

      I like PWE as an E & P, not as a Trust. The day it gets rid of the dividend is the day I buy it. The day PWE plows that bountiful cash flow into increased production is the day PWE shareholders see share gains per ayear greater than the dividend yield, but based on production increases, not just higher oil and gas prices.
      That's making money.
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    • Thu May 29th 23:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Energy Stocks: Which Horse To Ride for Income?
      I sold BP at higher prices and bought BG Group last year. As good as BP is on the value side I believe BG Group is the "integrated" oil and gas company of the future and the future is now.
      View article »
    • Tue May 27th 14:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Penn West Energy: More Questions Than Answers
      Jack, in the first sentence of my above reply I meant to say, get a number per month, averaged yearly for 2007 and 2008 on the number of shares in the DRIP and add that cost number to the dividends being paid in cash.
      View article »
    • Tue May 27th 14:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Penn West Energy: More Questions Than Answers
      Jack,
      Get a straight answer out of PWE on the number of shares per month, anually averaged; add that to the number they paid out in non drip distributions. It isn’t pretty.
      At current prices, you will probably see an increase to 600 million in cash flow. But all of it over 2.5 billion is going to pay down debt. I don't think that is bad.
      For 2009, any increase in projected cash flow, according to management will go to development drilling and exploration, then debt and only then to an increase in distributions.

      Bui is right, current production trend is downward. Management knows they got to solve it. Their solution is viable, it is all step out drilling, secondary and tertiary recovery. The latter two are expensive and getting more costly thus lowering ROI in comparison to primary production.

      Additionally, Nunns states that in 2 to 3 years development drilling will be reduced from current 66 percent of budget in favor of more exploration drilling. This is an E&P model, not a Trust model.

      Secondary and tertiary recovery coupled with exploration all takes time. In that time line, PWE's production flat lines and drops. High and higher oil prices pulled PWE out of the tailspin. Higher oil prices may continue to do so. It would offer the investor a chance to get out and that is good.

      Is the current dividend safe, probably for the next 4 to 5 quarters. However, PWE's own Board doesn't vote to guarantee dividend but for only 3 months at a time.

      The hard fact is, most people are buying PWE for the dividend and cap gains are icing on the cake.
      Historically, that has never been a long term reason to hold.

      My conclusion: PWE's dividend coupled with the DRIP simply isn't "honestly" covered. Increasing amounts of cash will be needed, really big amounts, to initiate drilling in the "resource" base which is now "unconventional&q... in every sense of the word.
      Other than higher oil prices, where does the money come from? Oh, say about 1 billion plus currently being paid in the dividend.

      If PWE engages in the E & P model she will need the accompanying financial structure to go along with it.
      Currently you have a CEO talking up an E & P model but the finances are based on a Trust

      I see a conflict and I think so do the Canadian analysts
      View article »
    • Tue May 27th 13:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Penn West Energy: More Questions Than Answers
      Hello Jack,

      Instead of posing the question to Nunns, why don't we ask the analysts themselves. Afterall, none participated in the 1st Q CC. Also, at that time a majority had a hold on the stock.
      View article »
    • Tue May 27th 11:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Penn West Energy Trust: My $50 Price Target
      Jack, give me 24 hours and I'll get back to you.
      View article »
    • Tue May 27th 11:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Penn West Energy Trust: My $50 Price Target
      Hello Jack,

      A put or shut up challenge, I love it. For some reason I was unable to post on the latest Bui article on PWE. Hope you see this post.
      View article »
    • Sun May 25th 01:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bakken Trend: Lost Dutchmen Mine of the Oil Patch?
      The USGS has released their report, finally, and it states 10 billion boe. Way, way to conservative. This is the same figure geologists came up with in 1978.
      The only reason Bakken reserves got higher in the 80's and 90's is that alot more data and computer analysis were added from the original 10 billion report.
      Conclusin: as the years past by and more extensive data was collected the range went higher not lower.The USGS is not conservative, they are just plain wrong.
      View article »
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