steve Ward

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184 Comments

    • Tue Jul 8th 11:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ithaca Energy: Endeavour's Bid Insufficient
      Also, SE published my review of Endeavour in February. Check the archives, it is still available. What could happen here is someone swallowing both companies as North Sea consolidation is the jour du rigor.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 8th 11:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ithaca Energy: Endeavour's Bid Insufficient
      Prior to eND's offer, IACAF was stuck at 2.45 with the LSE and the TSE not giving it any upside for the oncomming oil streams. The END offer based on Ithaca's closing price prior to the offer is a 44 percent jump in share price for Ithaca.

      Both of these companies are very active and promising. END and IACAF would enhance anyone's 401K handsomely if held for 5 to 7 years. The two companies shouild merge and that merger would result in 40,000 BOE by 2012.
      Unfortunately for END and good for ITHACA is that END's unsolicited offer woke the market up to Ithaca's great potential, that prior to this, the markets ignored. But that is what makes a market. END is also undervalued with a 2 P +P reserve in excess of $3.00 per share and free cash flow of about 5o percent of the stock price.

      Buy both with both hands nomatter the takeover result. I am holding END shares.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 1st 10:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Compton Petroleum: Asset Sales Misses Target
      So much for CMZ's own valuation of $19.00 per share just 18 months ago on lower gas prices.Apparently, some unconventional properties in CMZ's portfolio are not valued by the open market as much as CMZ thought them to be.

      When the stock hit high 7's and low 8's my valuation model put it at 12.00 to 14.00 Canadian per share. And we are there. The only need to hold is in the hope of a small miracle, otherwise sell now.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 1st 00:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Talisman Agreement with Hallwood Energy Reduces New Strategy Risk
      The new TLM CEO wants longer life reserves. This apparently is part of the strategy.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 1st 00:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Talisman Energy: Lord Stanley, No; Lord Marcellus, Yes
      TLM under Dr. Buckee preferred to drill deep for gas and in fact TLM is the deepest driller for gas in Canada. Dr. Buckee was well known for his charts and diagrams demonstrating present value was always greater with deep gas than unconventional gas such as shale and tight sands gas. Apparently, Dr. Buckee knew that gas prices would rise to such a degree that unconventional gas would be profitable on a present value cash flow basis. How else does one explain such a high acreage position with the new CEO not there but shy of one year.

      What a turnabout from Dr. Buckee's legacy.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 29th 15:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Taliman Energy: Analysts Cautiously Applaud Iraq Deal
      This indeed maybe a good deal in the long run. However, the entire process is based on Talisman needing longer life reserves and trying to do it on the cheap. I don't believe that will work. Talisman should be looking at a major multi-billion dollar deal in the Bakken Trend ala XTO Energy recently. Large amounts of oil in place is safe areas will command an even higher premium than today.
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 11th 19:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Outstanding Capital Efficiency at BPZ Resources
      Loved the article and the blog comments. Some Saskatchewan Bakken fields are yielding a recycle ratio of between 6 and as high as 8 with some wells at this oil price getting payback in less than 1 year. And these wells have a low flow rate like Corvina.

      While all metrics are a snapshot in time the recycle ratio along with flowing barrel costs are good to use.

      Would the author care to give us flowing barrel costs for Corvina if available?
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 11th 19:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Prices and the "Bigger Fool" Theory
      A legitimate case can be made for oil to drop as Murti states and as Murti states it won't happen for over a decade or even two decades. However, no one should short anything in the "short" term.
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 11th 19:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Indicators For A Blow-Off Top In Oil
      Factors other than a supply demand imbalance are affecting the price of oil. The slide in the dollar for one. The spectre of Israel attacking the Iranian's nuclear capability for two. The Chinese increasing imports for the Olympics to go smoothly as number 3. And of course a supply demand imbalance.
      This super spike in oil prices may not have a long or large price downside.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 8th 15:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Do Oil Prices Compare in Other Currencies?
      After seeing this chart oil maybe the best substitute for the EURO as well. This smacks of a real demand/ supply situation and a currency crisis worldwide that will result in higher interest rates. That means CRUNCH, worldwide. China will have to stop subsidies of petroleum products sooner than it wants to do.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 5th 11:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Five Oil and Gas Trust Picks
      For the record: I like Daylight and Crescent Point. Vermillion may depend on what happens with their Libyan partially owned subsidiary. But it's worth a look along with Baytex. Sensible dividends along with "running room" and "assetsout of Alberta" maybe the common theme here.i
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 5th 11:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Five Oil and Gas Trust Picks
      CA made alot of their money bringing E & P's to market with an extensive network of investors in Europe and Canada. The E & P's would then ratchet production up to 5,000 barrels aday and get bought out by the Canroys netting CA investors a nice bundle.

      That all changed with the limiting of how much a Canroy can raise in capital for further growth through acquisition. A CA founder and VP was so disgusted with what had happened he quit the business altogether.
      It now appears CA made the adjustment necessary to "stay in business", so to speak as the junior E & P market has dried up.
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 4th 14:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Penn West Energy: More Questions Than Answers
      Clarification :

      When I stated above that Nunns must spend 1.5 billion more over the next 5 years just to mauntain current levels I mean to say 1.5 billion more than the current 1 billion per year allocation on capex.

      Current levels of capex are 5 billion over 5 years, they must spend 6.5 billion to make it work and that is just on the conventional production alone.

      Tax pools be damned, all Canadian companies produce tax pools if they are drilling. Unconventional assets are going to be even more expensive to produce.
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 4th 14:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Penn West Energy: More Questions Than Answers
      About 90 percent of these Canroys were based on a Blow Down Model, pump assets dry for the shareholder to justify the lower returns generated by lands that were on their last legs. Problem occured when management wanted sustainability to keep right on going. Other problem occured when share price to NAV started averaging 120 percent and reserve life fell under 10 years for most of these trusts. The numbers didn'tadd up. The Canroys then piled on debt and share dilution for for acquisitions to keep the hamster on the treadmill.

      Then the Halloween Massacre occured and everything changed. And here is my point, in most cases the Canroys were not receiving enough money in netbacks per boe to break even on reserve replacement and still fund the dividend and the FD & A costs.
      Penn West is no different. PWE has the largest undiscounted NAV of all the conventional trusts and one of the worst reserve replacement recycle costs in the business at a negative $17.50 per boe 3 year average. In other words PWE must spend 17.50 more per barrel to just breakeven on reserve replacement and still fund the dividend. Based on 202m per day times 365 that is rounded off to 1.3 billion a year. PWE is 300 million short this year on that key metric. It is under funded.

      High oil and gas prices can change this if netbacks are high and there is enough oil and gas to conventionally prioduce. All I'm saying is at 1.4 billion a dividend cut would ease alot of problems.

      Nunns talks of an E & P model 2 to 3 years down the road. That would coincide with the end of current tax treatment that favours a trust model.
      Nunns may keep the current dividend until then. I believe he knows he has to spend more. To maintain current production over the next 5 years PWe must spend 1.5 billion more. There goes the dividend no matter the price of oil.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 3rd 23:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Did U.S. Senate Call Oil Top?
      Business Week use to be a barometer of future markets in general. This is interesting, the idiots that pass as our Congress, in their lunacy, mark a market top.
      A wonderful indicator, if it holds true.
      View article »
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