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  • Trading Idea This Week SPY At 261.8% Fibanacci(Last)

    5/14/2013 S&P500 is on the last Fibonacci line 261.8% from the previous wave top.

    (click to enlarge)

    Today, VIX didn't change much. In bigger chart, this resembles very much of 2011 before it made 200% upside.

    (click to enlarge)

    VIX is traditionally translated as fear gauge. If then, it shows any change of market ahead. So, today market made new high with 1% rally, but VIX was not changed much, holding the ground firmly in the pattern.

    There's market correction this week, if it still wants to go extended, probably after option expired this week, then next week.

    Disclosure: I am long TVIX.

    May 14 11:36 PM | Link | Comment!
  • SPX Future, ES1306, You Must Check Really..

    I have been following S&P e-mini future daily. Even though I started shorting market using VIX ETF, I was not sure because charting was not clear where it goes. So, I traded TVIX upside avoiding monthly roll over because with premium in VIX future contract, it will go down anyway. It's infamous decay factor of ETFs ETNs associated with future contract.

    Thursday night 5/2/2013, ES1306 was holding the day's gain strong, it seems as it's waiting for news. At Friday morning it opened up over 20 points up. Then I looked at chart, now it was clear to me, it was heading to create a top.

    (click to enlarge)

    And this is S&P500 chart as well below.

    (click to enlarge)

    Along with these unclear S&P and future chart, NASDAQ was making the lead of market. It broke up every resistances first before other indexes. Now, Friday, NASDAQ formed the same pattern but closed well above the wedge. This means, now the indexes are forming the converge after unclear market price. But it happened to be wedge. As a technical trader, charts converged at the indicator, now it's time to trade with confidence. If it's wedge and all time high with bad GDP outlook and sweating FED, I would choose to short market. From Friday, I added more TVIX and will trade swing for bigger return.

    While the resistance following the up trend, the bottom was been creating wedge, then it broke down and came up to the uptrend and wedge meets. To pass this over, market needs QE+zero interest+ alpha to sustain the trend. I strongly believe there's only two forces pushing this market high, QE and zero interest. FED used all their focuses to push up market while economy has not been really better than they thought. They admitted this pointing their fingers to congress for weak economy because congress delayed FED's proposal to proceed with QE. So I can assume FED doesn't anything left because this reaction is when someone is at high stress, not satisfied with the result.

    chart and mover tell me to short market. I am responding.

    Disclosure: I am long TVIX.

    May 05 8:25 AM | Link | Comment!
  • 30 Year Long Depression Ahead.
    30 year long depression ahead.

    When I was a kid, I saw lots of people at the back of our house, they were there to buy the land. The owner of the land was my cousin, he told me later after I grew up, the land was sold 5 times in a day and jumped 100% in ONE DAY. That was back to '70's. By that time, nobody really was figuring out what's going on because majority was not aware of real estate boom ahead for next 40 years.

    How many of you senses we're done with the land/house and the paradigm shifted already? Land/house is no longer investment tool because baby boomers created after world war I, II, Korean War, Vietnam are all gone. They retired. The money vehicle to pump real estate property is probably and very likely gone.

    The next generation is not limited to land/house. It's technology, health, medication, life, culture, very diverse scheme of investment interest.

    What Federal Reserve of the United States does, is they want to go back up and stay at the same level of standard using the same tool. Print money, make banks to give loans to buy land/house, give break to failed mortgage payers. This will not work for long run. The force of shifting paradigm is nature and cultural change. We can't control it.

    I watched FED was pointing finger to Congress for weak economy result while they have kept pushing Congress to approve with no time to print more money along with news 'who's next to replace Ben'. I don't know what exactly FED does for improving economy, but their reason to exist can't be justified just looking at what they have done and being irresponsible for the result. Less

    Disclosure: I am long TVIX, VXX.

    Tags: TVIX, VXX, SPY, QQQ
    May 02 11:02 AM | Link | Comment!
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