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stirdawg

stirdawg
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  • Bear Pep Talk: Timing Not Required [View article]
    thank you for this article. i have been experience the same emotions mentioned in your first paragraph, as last week i had reduced my portfolio from 100 to 50% after having been fully invested for past 6 years.
    May 16, 2013. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Escape Strategies For When The Stock Market Starts To Burn [View article]
    thanks for the reply. i have been an investor for past 5 years (started at market top). i've only purchased and held. my portfolio dropped by 70% during the '08-09 period. i've managed to gain back enough to have cut the overall drop to 12%.... obviously still well under s&p performance.

    i don't want to be a trader and converted 1/2 of my portfolio to cash b/c i don't want to get burned again. buffet says only to invest in stocks if you're willing to accept a 50% loss. 5 years ago i was willing. today i am no longer willing... until i see some semblance of a trough where i can enter.

    how does one post questions on your blog?
    May 13, 2013. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Escape Strategies For When The Stock Market Starts To Burn [View article]
    thank you for the insight. will be re-reading it when my thought process strays off.
    May 13, 2013. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Escape Strategies For When The Stock Market Starts To Burn [View article]
    since the beginning of the month, i scaled back my portfolio from 100% to now 50% invested. When the market goes up I'm not pleased as I imagine the profits (paper) if I would have stayed 100% vested. If the market goes down I'm not pleased as I think about how much I would have saved from losing had I taken all 100% out. i know, it seems like a glass half empty outlook.

    So, question for other investors, how how do you mentally reconcile such positions so as not to go through such emotions? Thank you in advance.
    May 13, 2013. 06:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Remain Bearish Despite The Cyclical Bull Rally [View article]
    Does anybody know if some event around 1995 changed how stock prices were valued (higher P/E's, etc.)?

    I ran a simple exponential on the years from 1960 to 1995. From this, the exponential trend line shows that the current S&P level should only be at 1025. The last date that the S&P matched a point on this trend line was in Jan. 2009.

    Have U.S. companies really created that much additional value over the past 18 years vs. the previous 35 (prior to 1995)?
    May 10, 2013. 04:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Remain Bearish Despite The Cyclical Bull Rally [View article]
    Thank you for the reply. I just viewed a few of Coates interviews on youtube and will check out the book.

    Not just 12% for 4 months, but 20% for 5 1/2 months. Up until yesterday I was 100% in the market for the past 6 years; now only 75% ... very hard to do psychologically, but going to pare back some more.

    I would have to do some serious internalizing of Coates' book before I move to a 3x. Looking forward to your next article and readers's comments.
    May 10, 2013. 03:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Remain Bearish Despite The Cyclical Bull Rally [View article]
    You also must be smiling the more the negative comments about your strategy come in. Isn't it when everybody is on board the bull that the drop ensues?
    May 8, 2013. 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Remain Bearish Despite The Cyclical Bull Rally [View article]
    novice investor hear, but i enjoy reading your follow up comments to others and commend you for being able to take emotions out of the equation... even more so after i took a bath in my biggest holding this morning, Alstom.

    So I was looking back at the S&P over the past 60 years and, except for the 90's, there always seemed to be a approx 20% correction every 4 1/2 to 5 years. does this sound right? I'm guessing this simple observation plays into your current theory?
    May 7, 2013. 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging The Dow On A Record Day [View instapost]
    great, will look it over. thx
    May 7, 2013. 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging The Dow On A Record Day [View instapost]
    Can you explain a bit more how this? Thank you.
    May 6, 2013. 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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