blackbody

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32 Comments

    • Mon Aug 25th 11:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Monday Outlook
      I don't think it is a coincidence that the '03 was the bottom for MSCI. As Iraq war caused US to print trillions of dollars and throw them all over the world, the rise in commodity prices certainly did more than help the rise of emerging markets. Therefore, then, it is more than likely that the deflationary pressure emanating from the debt contraction will also propagate through the corners of the global economy, this time triggering the fall of emerging market.
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    • Thu Aug 21st 15:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China's Looming Hangover?
      I think China will get Shanghai'ed.
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    • Fri Aug 15th 10:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Friday Outlook
      FYI:

      russia-insider.livejou...
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    • Tue Aug 12th 14:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Value Investors, Remember Margin of Safety
      ... so, if I want to short FRE, I can short LM instead?
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    • Fri Aug 1st 13:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      California Signaling A Housing Bottom? [Housing Tracker]
      Greed is a powerful motivator. I suspect at some point in near future the housing will appear to have caught the bottom. People purchasing foreclosures then flipping it for profit will lure other fools into the game, and soon bidding war will break out, giving appearance of support to housing prices. I suspect that little bounce will not last for long.
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    • Tue Jul 22nd 16:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      On Liquid Courage: David Brooks and Jim Grant
      There are plenty of outrage. Only, the outrage amongst the public are marginalized and dispersed into oblivion by the corporate controlled mass-media. What we are witnessing is nothing less than the failure of democracy.
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    • Sat Jul 19th 08:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As Merrill Reports, Short Squeeze in Financials Continues
      noni1, good example of one sided market crashing is China. It is not the shorts who drive the market lower. In the end it is fear and greed that drive the market to irrationality. In irrational market you find opportunity betting on reversion to mean. If that means shorting then that's what it takes.
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    • Thu Jul 17th 10:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
      I would be very worried when OIL price starts to drop. It may give the market a short term boost but ensuing demand destruction of DOLLAR will be ten times worse for US economy than $140 OIL.
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    • Wed Jun 25th 11:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Which Way Wednesday, Fed Edition
      The beauty of commodity bubble is that it keeps core-inflation figure low while forcing consumption high. You gotta hand it to Bernanke; the Princeton guys sure know how to work the numbers!
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    • Wed Jun 18th 22:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Agribusiness ETF (MOO) Stock Holdings
      the sloshing chunk of leveraged money is rocking the economic ship side to side ... Captain Bernanke says stay the course, damn the iceberg. According to all the advanced models he has, the iceberg can't possibly sink the massive ship.
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    • Tue Jun 10th 09:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will the New iPhone's Lower Price Triple Demand?
      The cost of iphone is not $199 or $299 but at minimum $850/year which translates into $1700 over 2 year contract period. Now, if you can get iphone with voice only plan, then I say even $299 is worthwhile.
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    • Sun Jun 8th 13:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bernanke Seems Willing To Allow More Downturn Than Greenspan
      As the captain of the ship that is US economy, Bernanke appears to be reacting rather than anticipating. Since the time he became fed chairman, Bernanke have failed to create sense of credibility. The failure of Bernanke FED is showing up in rapid fall of USD vs. Euro and rising commodity prices. It is quite unfortunate that failure of monetary/fiscal policy in US is doing the most harm to poor countries who can least deal with rising commodity prices. I hope the next president's first act is to ditch Bernanke and restore sense of credibility to the FED and thus USD.
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    • Thu May 22nd 16:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Only These Three Things Can Halt Oil's Advance
      One thing that seems to have gotten lost in last couple years is the trillion barrels of OIL in Colorado mountains that are buried within the rocks. As I recall, CVX was given the rights to extract those OIL. The estimates were the extraction process would become profitable at $100/barrel. So, as it stands, without killing off nature in Prudho bay, US has the largest known reserve in the world.
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    • Sat May 10th 10:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commodities: Bubble or Not?
      Just look at USO for example. If an investor buys into USO, then that creates demand for crude oil. Same is true for UNG, UGA, DBV, etc etc. The commodity have turned into investment vehicle where even average retail investors can speculate on commodities. As more and more people choose to hold position in USO or GLD, the added demand created will further skew the supply/demand. But just as added speculation added to the demand, the other side of the same coin is surge in supply as the speculative funds leave the commodity market at some point on profit taking. Each day, as commodity hits record after record, the defenders of price are beginning to sound exactly like the real-estate defenders of few years ago; this time it's different, that this is for real and price will never come down. I give it 12 month for commodity market to become another burst bubble.
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    • Sun May 4th 09:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      We're Nearing Crunch Time for Oil
      you sound like those people predicting housing price will never fall because you can't create new land. It does not matter if the world runs out of OIL tomorrow, people will only be able to pay what they are capable of paying.
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