Jake Berzon

http://www.odessapage.com/new/
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35 Comments

    • Wed Apr 30th 15:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jackson Hewitt: Taxes at a Discount
      User 177145, you were correct to point out that I was too early jumping into this stock and that it made a bottom much lower than I was anticipating. However, it has already recovered more than 20% over the past two weeks since you made your post.

      JTX remains in a strong position and is a valuable franchise. The company made some mistakes, which I did not anticipate and it quickly paid for them with a lower stock price. Those problems were temporary and are behind us now.

      As inflation picks up further many of the mom and pop shops will be driven out of business or will be forced to raise prices. JTX input costs, on the other hand, will not change significantly and they will be in a great position to gain market share.

      Unless management makes some bad mistakes or the US economy collapses completely, this stock should double from here by next summer.
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    • Fri Mar 28th 15:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buying CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar ETF as Loonie Falls Below Dollar
      Algoa, it was prudent for me to diversify some of my cash holdings into Loonies, now that the Loonies have corrected to a reasonable value range. Similarly, it is prudent for you to start buying into some US based ETFs. I bet, we will both be more right than wrong in the long term and that's really the name of the game.
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    • Mon Mar 10th 12:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      5 Reasons Why the U.S. Dollar Will Weaken Further
      Forgot to mention that I too post my articles here on seeking alpha.
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    • Mon Mar 10th 12:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      5 Reasons Why the U.S. Dollar Will Weaken Further
      I like your take on the current situation and hope that your rather rosy predictions come to be. However, I think we are in for much bigger long term problems. I hope to find the time to summarize my "predictions"... shortly.
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    • Fri Feb 29th 11:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
      What about GE Capital?
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    • Thu Feb 28th 15:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
      RichA, The only way I know to invest in pebble bed reactors is by buying stock in a Chinese utility company Huaneng Power International, Inc. It is available in ADR form, HNP. Or, you could hope and wait for Eskom to spin off PBMR... However, I would not count on pebble beds getting traction in the US.
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    • Thu Feb 28th 13:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
      I am not a nuclear engineer and can't judge advantages of the various reactor types. So, separating hype from fact in this area is rather tough. I know that GE is getting design wins with their ABWR
      reactors. I know that others are also winning with their designs. The point is that GE will certainly participate in alternative energy (including nuclear) future and their stock is dirt cheap and very accessible. Which is not the case for Toshiba, Mitsubishi and Areva.

      I have read about pebble bed reactors in the past and you are right to say that they sound safer than others. But isn't Germany phasing out their nuclear power plants because of an accident that happened in such a reactor?

      Jees is correct and the sentence about 2% growth should have read as follows: "It's that I have a hard time imagining a scenario under which GE's long term earnings growth will be limited to 2% a year, which would justify current stock price. Over 10% is a common expectation among most analysts."
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    • Wed Feb 27th 18:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
      GE is a safe bet with huge upside potential, but has only recently become a true value stock. I have never considered purchasing it before.

      Jim Cramer is fun to watch, but I don't trust his advice. I remember too vividly him recommending NCR after the TDC spin off last year, talking about it as if it had not yet happened. I had just sold NCR at the top and couldn't believe what I was hearing! It quickly dropped from $28 to $24 after that. He seems to like momentum stocks, in general and I don't. You know the old adage, "what goes up, must come down?"

      Those of you who are still discussing construction costs, my thesis would have not changed even if plant constructions costs would have not changed increased over the past 20-30 years. (Now, keep in mind that many of those projects were originally estimated at 1/10th there final cost.) The only thing that would have changed is the magnitude of the dramatic effect I was trying to achieve and that, my friends, will not make a difference on the price of GE stock.
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    • Wed Feb 27th 13:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
      Most of you still appear to be missing my point. Analysts are not currently including any of the tremendous GE Energy potentials in their GE growth projections. On the other hand, small alternative energy companies are all about growth that is far less certain. In my quest to seek alpha, I am better of buying GE, which is dirt cheap and has very solid alternative energy growth prospects, among other things.
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    • Wed Feb 27th 03:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
      First of all, I would like to thank all of my critics for keeping me on my tows. Perhaps a more careful reading of my original text would have alleviated most of your questions, but it can't hurt to clarify a few issues.

      1) The $90 Billion figure for building a reactor came from an article in the Christian Science Monitor www.csmonitor.com/2007... . My local utility, IREA published similar numbers. I believe them because 20 years ago it cost $3 billion to construct 1,000 MW reactors like the Limerick 2 query.nytimes.com/gst/... and final costs on these projects often were 10 times the original estimates. New plants will be larger and will cost more. In any case, my point was only to point out that analysts are not counting on this and other near certain upsides coming from GE Energy.

      2) From the Q3 of last year to the end of this year The Nuclear Regulatory Commission expects applications for 29 units www.nrc.gov/reactors/n...

      3) GE’s 300 or so projects around the Beijing Olympics are a done deal and they have been fully factored in by the analysts. I was alluding to the fact that the relationships GE has surely built in the process will serve it well in the future.

      I hope, all is clearer now!
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    • Fri Feb 15th 10:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Uncertainty Creates Buying Opportunity in Cigna
      Thank you for your comments on my use of grammar. Life Insurance and Accident and Health Insurance were capitalized to emphasize proper names of those sectors.

      Have you thought of volunteering to help Seeking Alpha edit writer submissions? I am sure you would enjoy the work, they would appreciate the help, and the rest of the world would be relieved of improper grammar - sounds like a win-win-win to me!
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    • Thu Jan 31st 15:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jackson Hewitt: Taxes at a Discount
      I really think that the market is scared silly of just about anything right now and any potentially negative news is getting interpreted and acted upon 3 x the magnitude of what it normally would be. In the case of JTX, what you are interpreting as a 65% chance of an end to the RAL business, I see as the market overreacting to a small chance of this happening.

      Why do I think that it will not happen? The reason that RALs exist, is because there is a real need for them. IRS will not be able to stop RALs, without first eliminating a need for them. (Which they can do eventually, but not for a very, very long time.) In the meantime, I think, they will quickly figure out that other alternatives that RAL getters would be forced into will be even worse and their attempt to stop the practice would only hurt those that they are trying to protect.

      Of course, I could be wrong and IRS could act irrationally. It wouldn't be the first time they did that, but I have faith! In any case, the downward risk is far smaller than the appreciation potential at this point.
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    • Mon Jan 28th 01:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jackson Hewitt: Taxes at a Discount
      ValAd, You are correct to say that if RAL income was to go away, JTX would loose a significant profit source. But please keep in mind that IRS is only in business of maximizing tax revenues for the government. They are not in the business of legislating how business is to be conducted. It would appear that IRS has no jurisdiction over the RAL issue. In any case, if the IRS concerns are alleviated through industry action (and I expect that they will be) over the next year, this issue will go away all by itself.
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    • Mon Jan 28th 01:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Riverbed Technology the Next Cisco?
      My contact at Cisco says that within a year Cisco routers will have all the functionality of the Riverbed boxes built in, completely eliminating the need for them. According to him, Cisco has developed this technology in house and are very unlikely to acquire Riverbed. Considering that RVBD is short on cash and is barely profitable, it is hard to imagine how this company will be able to survive if Cisco does not buy them out.
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    • Sun Jan 27th 11:15 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jackson Hewitt: Taxes at a Discount
      Alex,

      The stock is only worth as much as somebody is willing to pay for it and that depends on the market in general, as much as it does on the company itself. Today, this company's stock is distressed and the market players are jittery, therefore JTX is worth $24/share. Under normal market conditions, this stock would be worth around $30 / share now, which is the price I expect to fetch for it within 6 months.
      View article »
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