Seeking Alpha

conom20

conom20
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View conom20's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Early Retiree Portfolio For 2015 [View article]
    Nice list ER. What about Verizon? Could fit nicely in your stability section.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron Falls With Oil Prices Despite Having Virtually No Oil Exposure [View article]
    I think the biggest reason why CBI is correcting is because the market is looking at a very scary 2008 chart when CBI collapsed and because it is perceived as "uber-cyclical".
    Thing is the new CBI is very different from the old one: not only they have bought Shaw and have a very nice license for fee business but they have migrated to lower risk "cost-plus contracts"... So don't be scared when you look at that chart.
    Dec 11, 2014. 01:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wesco: Compounding Machine On Sale - 40-100% Upside [View article]
    You're right ER, I'm still trying to figure this one out, I'm puzzled. I'm not much worried about management quality because Carlyle is #1 shareholder and they still have last word on capital allocation and executives. But they have a major acquisition to integrate and contracts to negotiate with customers and suppliers... Very questionable timing to change the entire senior management team. It's also strange that long time CEO resigns without a letter to shareholders, no reason given...
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wesco: Compounding Machine On Sale - 40-100% Upside [View article]
    ER, I think it's time to write some emails to Wesco IR, they have to give more details and the reason for this shakeup, once again poor communication.
    Dec 9, 2014. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wesco: Compounding Machine On Sale - 40-100% Upside [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1wuIOFS

    Mr Snyder is stepping back from CEO, Mr Weinstein will replace him as CEO. Problem is Weinstein himself is retiring in 2015. Mr Greg Hann (CFO) and David Siquer are leaving too. All this announcements came in less than a month. There's something going on here, maybe Carlyle pushing for change? Or transition troubles? This is a family company at its root, transition is always difficult.

    ER, where do you read that Mr Snyder still holds 10%? Thank you
    Dec 9, 2014. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myth Of Direct Selling Blinds The Bulls And Believers At Herbalife [View article]
    Mr Fitzpatrick ASSUMES that "Herbalife bulls and believers have blind faith in Herbalife's identity as a true "direct selling" company".

    Now, Herbalife can be member of any association where it is accepted as a member. It doesn't mean that people have "blind faith" in it, nor they need to. We could actually argue that MLM is a subset of DS. We could discuss whether or not Herbalife is a DS company but….all these discussions would be pointless. Let's get to the issue: Herbalife doesn't need to be a direct selling company in order to be legal, in fact MLMs are regulated, legit enterprises. This article proves nothing but the fact that Mr Fitzpatrick definition of DS companies is different from the definition adopted by the DSA itself. This is as useful as convincing an horse that, deep inside, he is a pig.
    Dec 8, 2014. 06:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brad Buss And SolarCity's Promising Prospects After 2017 [View article]
    Hey average americans make sure to include the cost to rent your neighbor's garage in case you want those batteries!
    Dec 7, 2014. 05:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myth Of Direct Selling Blinds The Bulls And Believers At Herbalife [View article]
    Mr Fitzpatrick, you assume that "Herbalife bulls" believe it is a direct selling company. But you're wrong, in fact there's no need to prove Herbalife is a direct selling company, in fact it might only be a legit MLM and this might work just fine. "Herbalife bears" always forget that MLMs have not been outlawed(yet), whether you like it or not. Stop acting like regulators once and for all and read the law, there's no need for improvisation.
    Dec 7, 2014. 06:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brad Buss And SolarCity's Promising Prospects After 2017 [View article]
    Right now vanadium batteries do not work for small applications. However supporters should better ask themselves if this outperformance is really related to the the technology of vanadium batteries or simply the material. They should also ask themselves if the price of this rare earth material is likely to be influenced by mass production of vanadium batteries, if this is the case they might not look as cheap as now a few years down the road. There's a research by Rice University that proves that graphene+vanadium cathodes improve Lithium battery performance by a factor of 4. Tesla and Byd are both reportedly working on this. People mistakenly believe there's only one type of lithium batteries but there are many and they can be dramatically improved with slight variations. Is it such a big deal to change cathode material? I don't think so. What is so special about the vanadium battery apart from vanadium? Cathod and anode, they all work the same! The basic functioning of the battery is unlikely to change in the short term but there are many ways they can be improved or use different materials. At the end of the day the winners will be those who possess an highly scalable model and the ability to use any new technology that might come out in a commercially viable mass-market product. Tesla certainly qualifies, the small XYZ lab? I don't know!
    Dec 7, 2014. 06:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brad Buss And SolarCity's Promising Prospects After 2017 [View article]
    I don't know about 3 months but 500%+ since ipo (2012) doesn't sound like failure to me
    Dec 3, 2014. 07:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brad Buss And SolarCity's Promising Prospects After 2017 [View article]
    No BI,

    I don't have a better value measure I think your focus on RV is fine. Just those two reservations about using a market PE multiple on an NPV, if you move interest rates it will compress or expand pretty dramatically because it's like double counting. And the regression problem. Having said that... I don't have a better way, too many moving parts: how much equity do financiers require? cost of funds? ROI on the manufacturing investments? As I said... strange animal... At the moment this is all about having faith in the management, if you don't you can't really make this investment... Perhaps next time you could analyze their story and track record so far? Just a suggestion, keep up the good work.
    Dec 1, 2014. 01:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brad Buss And SolarCity's Promising Prospects After 2017 [View article]
    He probably talks about NPV for the owner, not sure
    Dec 1, 2014. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brad Buss And SolarCity's Promising Prospects After 2017 [View article]
    Bizlike, thanks for the article, I think it's fair to say this is a difficult company to value with so many moving parts at the moment.

    I have some reservations on your valuation methodology, first and foremost applying an earnings multiple on an NPV based figure. Also estimating shares outstanding through a regression seems like a stretch to me, especially given the new business model of effectively becoming a manufacturer where the financing is still a question mark.

    So I think the numbers are not very reliable, but I appreciate your article in trying to propose a new way to value this strange animal. Best of luck
    Nov 29, 2014. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wesco: Compounding Machine On Sale - 40-100% Upside [View article]
    I think debt shouldn't concern investors, banks are willing to lend to companies like Wesco because they are "asset rich", their assets are mostly mundane, low obsolescence inventory parts that retain their value over time, it's not a manufacturing plant or semiconductors or silicon wafer etc. Wesco also has good cash generation overall and growth shouldn't be a concern, in fact they can generate cash while growing double digit and push down leverage ratios in a wonderful virtuous cycle, actually that's what we should hope for.
    Nov 26, 2014. 03:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wesco: Compounding Machine On Sale - 40-100% Upside [View article]
    Yes Er, as I said my comment is not dissenting from your general view which I think is spot on. I'm just puzzled by some of the recent management comments and the way they shrugged off all the New Breed questions when it's well known they are having strong negotiations with Boeing. So I don't really think they're really trading prices for volumes I think it's just the result of Boeing gaining bargaining power, also the timing of their mix change is perfectly consistent with the Partnering for Success initiative and New Breed Announcements 2011/12 so it would be difficult to argue that it's unrelated. They have always been hugely exposed to Boeing (no customer is more than 10% most of them are BA subcontractors) so I'm really wondering what kind of volumes are they really getting in exchange for the big inventory build up when they're guiding 4% organic growth and a 50m contract loss. It doesn't mean I question the strategy or distrust the management just I don't think we will see big differential volume or predictability benefit from LTAs it was mostly a bargaining issue I believe. Also Wesco aircraft engaged in dem/supply control in the past when there was shortages of pieces, this practice must have got Boeing attention and so started looking for logistics alternatives. But I agree that higher inventory turns and operating leverage will make shareholders happy nevertheless. I just think Boeing succeeded in its effort to bring down costs in the supply chain and create alternatives on fasteners so far and Wesco's cited margins headwinds are an indication. Wesco's success will ultimately be dependent on their ability to stay efficient and if the past is an indication they will prosper.
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
416 Comments
1,374 Likes