DRich's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/117527/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174456-rapid-transition-to-grid-enabled-vehicles-not-possible-or-desirable?source=feed#comment-793182 793182 Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:10:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174456-rapid-transition-to-grid-enabled-vehicles-not-possible-or-desirable?source=feed#comment-793123 793123
I believe that other technologies will emerge soon. That's my hope. I would think that a better structured product life cycle chain will develop over the next decade. I'd be happy to trade it as does unfold, even as I don't fully believe it to be the end all for motive, grid, or any other purpose. It would still be big. I'd be more inclined (and have begun) to invest long term in the build-out of CNG infrastructure for HEV's. To me, the infrastructure of Li storage & CNG are about even right now. Both have good opportunities with about equivalent risk of fail to become mainstream. With my limited money I'm going to stick with investing in cheap existing technology and trade the emerging unproven ones.]]> Sun, 06 Dec 2009 16:44:38 -0500
I believe that other technologies will emerge soon. That's my hope. I would think that a better structured product life cycle chain will develop over the next decade. I'd be happy to trade it as does unfold, even as I don't fully believe it to be the end all for motive, grid, or any other purpose. It would still be big. I'd be more inclined (and have begun) to invest long term in the build-out of CNG infrastructure for HEV's. To me, the infrastructure of Li storage & CNG are about even right now. Both have good opportunities with about equivalent risk of fail to become mainstream. With my limited money I'm going to stick with investing in cheap existing technology and trade the emerging unproven ones.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174456-rapid-transition-to-grid-enabled-vehicles-not-possible-or-desirable?source=feed#comment-792694 792694 Sun, 06 Dec 2009 12:54:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175607-lithium-ion-batteries-and-gevs-false-gods-for-the-new-millennium?source=feed#comment-781507 781507
This should stir a hornet's nest & be a very entertaining comment section.]]> Sun, 29 Nov 2009 10:55:10 -0500
This should stir a hornet's nest & be a very entertaining comment section.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174456-rapid-transition-to-grid-enabled-vehicles-not-possible-or-desirable?source=feed#comment-773533 773533 I'm more & more convinced, as time goes by, that NG is being overlooked for the simple reason that to build-out the infrastructure would cost non-governmental capital outlays and require hiring Americans to install it. We are valued customers but not thought so highly as employees.]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:09:56 -0500 I'm more & more convinced, as time goes by, that NG is being overlooked for the simple reason that to build-out the infrastructure would cost non-governmental capital outlays and require hiring Americans to install it. We are valued customers but not thought so highly as employees.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/65370-jack-lifton/35805-rare-earths-a-china-price?source=feed#comment-761832 761832 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:51:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168656-a123-vs-byd-and-other-irrational-battery-investments?source=feed#comment-729528 729528 Welcome to the discussion. As your questions point to, you've got a lot of reading to do. If this storage "thing" has peeked your interest, the following web address you'll find fascinating. It's the archive of Mr. Peterson's work.

seekingalpha.com/autho...

It's a lot to take in, but it's the best source of intelligent discussion out there. IMHO. By all means read the comment sections too.]]> Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:17:16 -0400 Welcome to the discussion. As your questions point to, you've got a lot of reading to do. If this storage "thing" has peeked your interest, the following web address you'll find fascinating. It's the archive of Mr. Peterson's work.

seekingalpha.com/autho...

It's a lot to take in, but it's the best source of intelligent discussion out there. IMHO. By all means read the comment sections too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166855-according-to-treasury-spread-model-no-chance-of-a-douple-dip-recession?source=feed#comment-717149 717149 Thu, 15 Oct 2009 22:58:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163179-a123-systems-ipo-meets-with-great-success?source=feed#comment-689640 689640 I know you have to defend your turf, but you rise to the bait too quickly.]]> Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:51:18 -0400 I know you have to defend your turf, but you rise to the bait too quickly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161463-toyota-tests-and-rejects-lithium-ion-batteries-for-the-prius?source=feed#comment-682705 682705
VW is probably going to a leader in EV's of some sort, but my experience has put me squarely in the "believe it when I see it" and I'm mad enough that it had best be state of the art and competitively priced if & when it does arrive. ]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 13:28:36 -0400
VW is probably going to a leader in EV's of some sort, but my experience has put me squarely in the "believe it when I see it" and I'm mad enough that it had best be state of the art and competitively priced if & when it does arrive. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160283-looks-like-we-re-all-communists-now?source=feed#comment-665608 665608 Mon, 07 Sep 2009 20:15:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159020-phevs-and-evs-plugging-into-a-lump-of-coal?source=feed#comment-662437 662437 Fri, 04 Sep 2009 16:44:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/227454-john-petersen/25256-phevs-and-evs-plugging-into-a-lump-of-coal?source=feed#comment-653240 653240 It will, apparently, take the demonstration of the high cost of PHEV in the market to knock this idea into the 'common wisdom'. I see a justifiable political argument for the concentration of pollution, a cynical capitalist reason to sell it. In the end, I believe when real numbers of consumers start spending it will be toward efficiency.
My 'hope' is that when the tsunami hits, the USA has spent enough wisely to rebuild a competitive industrial base and done the storage systems research to be more that just a consumer nation. ]]> Sun, 30 Aug 2009 10:41:26 -0400 It will, apparently, take the demonstration of the high cost of PHEV in the market to knock this idea into the 'common wisdom'. I see a justifiable political argument for the concentration of pollution, a cynical capitalist reason to sell it. In the end, I believe when real numbers of consumers start spending it will be toward efficiency.
My 'hope' is that when the tsunami hits, the USA has spent enough wisely to rebuild a competitive industrial base and done the storage systems research to be more that just a consumer nation. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/227454-john-petersen/25256-phevs-and-evs-plugging-into-a-lump-of-coal?source=feed#comment-652878 652878 I don't think that shifting the CO2 from road to power plant is such a bad first step. Concentrating the problem might just make abatement economically viable for some new technologies (at least I'm investing that way) such as the demonstrated use of algae or sequestration.]]> Sun, 30 Aug 2009 01:03:36 -0400 I don't think that shifting the CO2 from road to power plant is such a bad first step. Concentrating the problem might just make abatement economically viable for some new technologies (at least I'm investing that way) such as the demonstrated use of algae or sequestration.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158422-how-phevs-and-evs-will-sabotage-america-s-drive-for-energy-independence?source=feed#comment-652846 652846 Sat, 29 Aug 2009 22:37:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158422-how-phevs-and-evs-will-sabotage-america-s-drive-for-energy-independence?source=feed#comment-652791 652791 It's not to John to justify or reinforce any reason you might entertain to get involved with this kind of investment (or any other) based on his views of socio-economic fundamentals. That is entirely up to you. He has laid out a rather exhaustive, fact based argument that anyone can accept or reject. I thank him for providing the research/data that he has. Doesn't matter if I agree.]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 20:32:21 -0400 It's not to John to justify or reinforce any reason you might entertain to get involved with this kind of investment (or any other) based on his views of socio-economic fundamentals. That is entirely up to you. He has laid out a rather exhaustive, fact based argument that anyone can accept or reject. I thank him for providing the research/data that he has. Doesn't matter if I agree.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/65370-jack-lifton/23755-north-american-companies-involved-inthe-availability-of-the-heavy-rare-earth-metals-and-the-future-of-high-tech-manufacturing?source=feed#comment-640751 640751 Sat, 22 Aug 2009 01:53:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155805-vinod-khosla-s-stance-on-the-future-of-lithium-ion-batteries?source=feed#comment-630290 630290
Just asking out of ignorance.]]> Fri, 14 Aug 2009 15:48:02 -0400
Just asking out of ignorance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155805-vinod-khosla-s-stance-on-the-future-of-lithium-ion-batteries?source=feed#comment-630232 630232 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 14:39:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155805-vinod-khosla-s-stance-on-the-future-of-lithium-ion-batteries?source=feed#comment-629082 629082 Thu, 13 Aug 2009 19:13:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155805-vinod-khosla-s-stance-on-the-future-of-lithium-ion-batteries?source=feed#comment-629076 629076 Thu, 13 Aug 2009 19:07:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153828-exciting-times-as-atvm-loan-and-arra-battery-grants-announced?source=feed#comment-620905 620905 I meant no offense. My company ships battery control devices (some complete with multiple batt -packs installed) and over the years the failure rate once in end-users hands is probably 1:500k initial and 1:10k @ 3-5 years out. The overwhelming reason for end-user failure has been improper usage or extreme environmental condition, but I look at a warehouse filled with manufacturing line failures that probably pushes 1:1k as shipped by the factory.

My point to Don was that the ramp from small batch fabrication to, sometimes mind blowing, large batch fabrication is a great leap that I can only hope he is truly ready for. Scaling from pilot line to commercial production is a monumental task. The smaller the lot size the better the chance of perfection. Then comes compressed time lines, margin squeeze, tight spec tolerancing, material expediting and the headache list goes on.]]> Sat, 08 Aug 2009 09:08:54 -0400 I meant no offense. My company ships battery control devices (some complete with multiple batt -packs installed) and over the years the failure rate once in end-users hands is probably 1:500k initial and 1:10k @ 3-5 years out. The overwhelming reason for end-user failure has been improper usage or extreme environmental condition, but I look at a warehouse filled with manufacturing line failures that probably pushes 1:1k as shipped by the factory.

My point to Don was that the ramp from small batch fabrication to, sometimes mind blowing, large batch fabrication is a great leap that I can only hope he is truly ready for. Scaling from pilot line to commercial production is a monumental task. The smaller the lot size the better the chance of perfection. Then comes compressed time lines, margin squeeze, tight spec tolerancing, material expediting and the headache list goes on.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153828-exciting-times-as-atvm-loan-and-arra-battery-grants-announced?source=feed#comment-618337 618337
A 1 in 400 failure rate might be tolerated by on product in the end-user's hands close to design end-of-life, but bring that timeline in and I'll have to find a replacement customer quicker than I would want.]]> Thu, 06 Aug 2009 13:44:16 -0400
A 1 in 400 failure rate might be tolerated by on product in the end-user's hands close to design end-of-life, but bring that timeline in and I'll have to find a replacement customer quicker than I would want.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153828-exciting-times-as-atvm-loan-and-arra-battery-grants-announced?source=feed#comment-617223 617223 This will be my last post on this since it's off topic. I don't want to appear rude to the site.

I wish you could find your way to be truly an American company, but I understand since my manufacturing is mostly in Asia also. I'm glad you feel ready. But I doubt it. Looking for investors? Ummmm, Not ready for primetime... you've heard the expression "Build a better mousetrap...etc.

I am a consumer of batteries, so I love this sector but it's still just a hobby category for investing. People with real money need to be made aware that power storage is good for something more than cellphones, starters and flashlight. Unfortunately, that is where the thought process is. Those that haven't published third party performance/durability data, carved out a profitable niche, drawn the attention of a deep pocketed benefactor or a brokerage analyst will face an uphill battle for growth. I'm delighted with these grants for the attention it will draw because the money is minuscule & inconsequential in the grand scheme of things.

Having been there, where units out the door suddenly go from 10K-100k to 2M to customers that expect better than 0.25% failure rates during years of service, is a leap. There's a place for all in this space so carve yours out and hold on. Good Luck]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2009 19:25:58 -0400 This will be my last post on this since it's off topic. I don't want to appear rude to the site.

I wish you could find your way to be truly an American company, but I understand since my manufacturing is mostly in Asia also. I'm glad you feel ready. But I doubt it. Looking for investors? Ummmm, Not ready for primetime... you've heard the expression "Build a better mousetrap...etc.

I am a consumer of batteries, so I love this sector but it's still just a hobby category for investing. People with real money need to be made aware that power storage is good for something more than cellphones, starters and flashlight. Unfortunately, that is where the thought process is. Those that haven't published third party performance/durability data, carved out a profitable niche, drawn the attention of a deep pocketed benefactor or a brokerage analyst will face an uphill battle for growth. I'm delighted with these grants for the attention it will draw because the money is minuscule & inconsequential in the grand scheme of things.

Having been there, where units out the door suddenly go from 10K-100k to 2M to customers that expect better than 0.25% failure rates during years of service, is a leap. There's a place for all in this space so carve yours out and hold on. Good Luck]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153828-exciting-times-as-atvm-loan-and-arra-battery-grants-announced?source=feed#comment-617099 617099 I'm sorry for not spelling out, to clarify GS (Goldman Sachs, not so much the corp. but the clientele) and MS (Morgan Stanley). Both are big in the wealth management departments and though the trading desks won't pay much mind to the battery biz until either a major utility/OEM makes a big buy or the wealth departments demand in on the action from client interest. An uptick in sector revenues of 10% or better over, let's say, the next 2 or 3 quarters with the accompanying rise of the stocks to the $5-6 level (as thin as the share numbers are...I don't see that as a problem). Bingo. I'd better be close to marketable product & ready to rock & roll.
I know your company, but not in great detail. It's there but not on the radar screen, as "they" say. I see the short term winners as the ones that have the ability to ramp 100%- 200% in 24 months starting 2010 and the long term winners as those that not only ramp, but deliver a 5 year product yield in the 70% or greater range (kind of depends on who your customer is, industrial will want better, consumers have lower expectations). ]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:27:12 -0400 I'm sorry for not spelling out, to clarify GS (Goldman Sachs, not so much the corp. but the clientele) and MS (Morgan Stanley). Both are big in the wealth management departments and though the trading desks won't pay much mind to the battery biz until either a major utility/OEM makes a big buy or the wealth departments demand in on the action from client interest. An uptick in sector revenues of 10% or better over, let's say, the next 2 or 3 quarters with the accompanying rise of the stocks to the $5-6 level (as thin as the share numbers are...I don't see that as a problem). Bingo. I'd better be close to marketable product & ready to rock & roll.
I know your company, but not in great detail. It's there but not on the radar screen, as "they" say. I see the short term winners as the ones that have the ability to ramp 100%- 200% in 24 months starting 2010 and the long term winners as those that not only ramp, but deliver a 5 year product yield in the 70% or greater range (kind of depends on who your customer is, industrial will want better, consumers have lower expectations). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153828-exciting-times-as-atvm-loan-and-arra-battery-grants-announced?source=feed#comment-617069 617069 Don't sound so down. It's time to get it together and put up a secondary .... soon. These grants will draw the attention of the GS & MS crowd who will start analysis of those left behind.]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:00:12 -0400 Don't sound so down. It's time to get it together and put up a secondary .... soon. These grants will draw the attention of the GS & MS crowd who will start analysis of those left behind.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149644-energy-storage-on-the-smart-grid-99-45-cheap-and-0-55-cool?source=feed#comment-593990 593990
Most of the discussion to date in your articles comment sections has been about PHEV, L-ion (neither of which peak my interest,though I'm invested) and major national grid applications (also invested in). The link is driving me crazy. Being a rural Texan (with all the stubborn, obnoxious independance that entails), I, my neighbors, and investing friends want to live off-the-grid as soon as possible. We still want the Grid as our UPS system, but ....

For major Utility installations the conversion of low voltage storage systems into the "smart" grid transmission seems to be covered by all the usual player suchas Eaton(ETN), International Business Machines(IBM), Emerson Electric(EMR), Siemens AG(SI), Johnson Controls(JCI), Honeywell(HON), and the like. All good companies and I would not hesitate to reccomend any of them, but they are too diversified and solutions too costly to have upside specific to this investing thesis. Most of the world doesn't have a mature or even an existing electrical grid. Our thesis is that the real upside to renewable energy is in these undeveloped places and the return of rural life that our kids and grandchildren will experience. I'm a believer that this urban sprall that is the USA will start to fade in the next fifty years and am looking out that far for investing beyond my lifetime. I know it's too soon to know but the local energy source is a today problem for us. That is why the link between our renewable sources and the house is a problem. Hell, our little co-op even tried to get A123 to install a household test at our expense just because their system uses Energy Conversion Devices(ENER) laminate, one my favorite companies, and we would be able to see what I don't fully understand in action. They thought us crazy and inefficiencies of cost were nutty even to me.

My question to you and this site would be: What might be an investable company that can invert low voltage storage into household existing energy?

Chinese & Indian companies can do this now, but I don't understand either countries bookkeeping/finacial structure well enough. The major industrials are too costly and nonspecific. I'm just driving myself nuts with the large number of smaller companies that are mostly private. Thought??????]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 14:58:02 -0400
Most of the discussion to date in your articles comment sections has been about PHEV, L-ion (neither of which peak my interest,though I'm invested) and major national grid applications (also invested in). The link is driving me crazy. Being a rural Texan (with all the stubborn, obnoxious independance that entails), I, my neighbors, and investing friends want to live off-the-grid as soon as possible. We still want the Grid as our UPS system, but ....

For major Utility installations the conversion of low voltage storage systems into the "smart" grid transmission seems to be covered by all the usual player suchas Eaton(ETN), International Business Machines(IBM), Emerson Electric(EMR), Siemens AG(SI), Johnson Controls(JCI), Honeywell(HON), and the like. All good companies and I would not hesitate to reccomend any of them, but they are too diversified and solutions too costly to have upside specific to this investing thesis. Most of the world doesn't have a mature or even an existing electrical grid. Our thesis is that the real upside to renewable energy is in these undeveloped places and the return of rural life that our kids and grandchildren will experience. I'm a believer that this urban sprall that is the USA will start to fade in the next fifty years and am looking out that far for investing beyond my lifetime. I know it's too soon to know but the local energy source is a today problem for us. That is why the link between our renewable sources and the house is a problem. Hell, our little co-op even tried to get A123 to install a household test at our expense just because their system uses Energy Conversion Devices(ENER) laminate, one my favorite companies, and we would be able to see what I don't fully understand in action. They thought us crazy and inefficiencies of cost were nutty even to me.

My question to you and this site would be: What might be an investable company that can invert low voltage storage into household existing energy?

Chinese & Indian companies can do this now, but I don't understand either countries bookkeeping/finacial structure well enough. The major industrials are too costly and nonspecific. I'm just driving myself nuts with the large number of smaller companies that are mostly private. Thought??????]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145682-auto-batteries-short-term-revenue-growth-favors-lead-acid-by-6-to-1?source=feed#comment-593212 593212 I'm starting to branch out of the storage manufacturing, that I've chosen to invest in, and am now moving into the the search for the build-out firms. The motive industries have certainly gotten a large amount of pixels and ire from your postings, but I'm really not interested (from my investment POV). I'm much more interested in the resurrection of USA industrial base, which to me is energy, and the resources, i.e. the mining, needed to do this. I'm a big fan of the VAT that is Cap&Trade carbon credits since it's been demonstrated to work with SO2 and NOx in the past (and been profitable) that I'm building toward this next wave. ]]> Sat, 18 Jul 2009 16:15:00 -0400 I'm starting to branch out of the storage manufacturing, that I've chosen to invest in, and am now moving into the the search for the build-out firms. The motive industries have certainly gotten a large amount of pixels and ire from your postings, but I'm really not interested (from my investment POV). I'm much more interested in the resurrection of USA industrial base, which to me is energy, and the resources, i.e. the mining, needed to do this. I'm a big fan of the VAT that is Cap&Trade carbon credits since it's been demonstrated to work with SO2 and NOx in the past (and been profitable) that I'm building toward this next wave. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145682-auto-batteries-short-term-revenue-growth-favors-lead-acid-by-6-to-1?source=feed#comment-592781 592781 Sat, 18 Jul 2009 02:04:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132067-texas-doesn-t-have-the-magic-anti-bubble-bullet?source=feed#comment-471937 471937 Tue, 21 Apr 2009 20:33:26 -0400