DRich

Lithium Ion Batteries and GEVs: False Gods for the New Millennium

John, please clarify the line item "Vehicles enabled per year" data. I'm pretty sure that you took existing/short term projection of battery manufacture and distributed it over the number of vehicles each requires. I can see it now & before it boils down to a pissing contest, I'd just like "The Master"'s take.

This should stir a hornet's nest & be a very entertaining comment section.

Rapid Transition to Grid Enabled Vehicles Not Possible or Desirable

John,
I'm more & more convinced, as time goes by, that NG is being overlooked for the simple reason that to build-out the infrastructure would cost non-governmental capital outlays and require hiring Americans to install it. We are valued customers but not thought so highly as employees.

PHEVs and EVs: Plugging into a Lump of Coal

Atta-Boy John!!!

How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence

Peace, Don. No offense, but reading these comments is frustrating to me sometimes. Seems that some want to nitpick & browbeat John's presentation of the data he so generously has shared. I don't mind debate of another fact based or 'researchable' point of view, but some want to wander off the narrow focus of the subject in order to......I don't know what. Maybe the ego stroking of being 'righter' than the author. The subject at hand is complex & multifaceted in itself. We all know it doesn't exist in vacuum. The perception of world that energy storage to exists in is IMHO not for here. After all someone has to be on the other side of the trade in order for profit to be made.

How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence

Don,
It's not to John to justify or reinforce any reason you might entertain to get involved with this kind of investment (or any other) based on his views of socio-economic fundamentals. That is entirely up to you. He has laid out a rather exhaustive, fact based argument that anyone can accept or reject. I thank him for providing the research/data that he has. Doesn't matter if I agree.

Exciting Times as ATVM Loan and ARRA Battery Grants Announced

John,
I meant no offense. My company ships battery control devices (some complete with multiple batt -packs installed) and over the years the failure rate once in end-users hands is probably 1:500k initial and 1:10k @ 3-5 years out. The overwhelming reason for end-user failure has been improper usage or extreme environmental condition, but I look at a warehouse filled with manufacturing line failures that probably pushes 1:1k as shipped by the factory.

My point to Don was that the ramp from small batch fabrication to, sometimes mind blowing, large batch fabrication is a great leap that I can only hope he is truly ready for. Scaling from pilot line to commercial production is a monumental task. The smaller the lot size the better the chance of perfection. Then comes compressed time lines, margin squeeze, tight spec tolerancing, material expediting and the headache list goes on.

Exciting Times as ATVM Loan and ARRA Battery Grants Announced

tireman63, I don't know where you get your batteries from or where your point of QC is in the production line, but from my point of view, it's the end of the fabrication line for the OEM. At that point a failure rate of 1 in 400 is a disaster me and not well tolerated by my custormer.

A 1 in 400 failure rate might be tolerated by on product in the end-user's hands close to design end-of-life, but bring that timeline in and I'll have to find a replacement customer quicker than I would want.

Exciting Times as ATVM Loan and ARRA Battery Grants Announced

Don,
This will be my last post on this since it's off topic. I don't want to appear rude to the site.

I wish you could find your way to be truly an American company, but I understand since my manufacturing is mostly in Asia also. I'm glad you feel ready. But I doubt it. Looking for investors? Ummmm, Not ready for primetime... you've heard the expression "Build a better mousetrap...etc.

I am a consumer of batteries, so I love this sector but it's still just a hobby category for investing. People with real money need to be made aware that power storage is good for something more than cellphones, starters and flashlight. Unfortunately, that is where the thought process is. Those that haven't published third party performance/durability data, carved out a profitable niche, drawn the attention of a deep pocketed benefactor or a brokerage analyst will face an uphill battle for growth. I'm delighted with these grants for the attention it will draw because the money is minuscule & inconsequential in the grand scheme of things.

Having been there, where units out the door suddenly go from 10K-100k to 2M to customers that expect better than 0.25% failure rates during years of service, is a leap. There's a place for all in this space so carve yours out and hold on. Good Luck

Exciting Times as ATVM Loan and ARRA Battery Grants Announced

Don,
I'm sorry for not spelling out, to clarify GS (Goldman Sachs, not so much the corp. but the clientele) and MS (Morgan Stanley). Both are big in the wealth management departments and though the trading desks won't pay much mind to the battery biz until either a major utility/OEM makes a big buy or the wealth departments demand in on the action from client interest. An uptick in sector revenues of 10% or better over, let's say, the next 2 or 3 quarters with the accompanying rise of the stocks to the $5-6 level (as thin as the share numbers are...I don't see that as a problem). Bingo. I'd better be close to marketable product & ready to rock & roll.
I know your company, but not in great detail. It's there but not on the radar screen, as "they" say. I see the short term winners as the ones that have the ability to ramp 100%- 200% in 24 months starting 2010 and the long term winners as those that not only ramp, but deliver a 5 year product yield in the 70% or greater range (kind of depends on who your customer is, industrial will want better, consumers have lower expectations).

Exciting Times as ATVM Loan and ARRA Battery Grants Announced

Don,
Don't sound so down. It's time to get it together and put up a secondary .... soon. These grants will draw the attention of the GS & MS crowd who will start analysis of those left behind.