Chandler Lutz

http://stockboxfinancial.com
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    • Wed Sep 10th 02:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Prices Down? Refiner Stocks to Benefit
      Interesting article. I think the big question is will demand destruction continue in the gasoline market and will the price of gasoline fall more less than oil. I think one nightmare scenario for these refineries could be if demand destruction continues in the US and international demand in for oil picks up...While the former is quite likely the latter is less clear. This may be one reason why some of these companies carry such attractive valuations.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 23:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hurco: A Buy at the Current Price
      Great article! I agree that hurc is a global cyclical. Even though it is a great little company, performance will undoubtedly suffer if the dollar strengthens and foreign economies slide...As for the rising input costs, is it possible that customers would look to hurc's services to increase efficiencies and decrease waste??...this thesis seems logical to me but I am unsure what magnitude this situation will really have..
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    • Thu Sep 4th 16:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Separation of Stocks and State
      Nice Article! I have to say though you used quite a small data set. When econometricians analyze these things they always use as much data as possible which usually goes back to the 1920s. If you do so (and there have been various studies on these things) you would find that with a dem in office you would find the stock market increased about 11 percent while with a republican it. The difference largely accounts for Hoover's Great Depression and the large expansion during the roosevelt years.

      Overall if you want to find a candidate that will foster economic growth then you must look at what drives economic growth...the consensus on this is capital investment and productivity growth. Then you must look at each candidates' policies to determine which will more likely drive productivity growth and capital investment in the long term. The answer is not always clear and obviously different people will arrive at different conclusions.

      For me personally I believe that Obama Is by far the best choice...Undoubtedly 50 percent of the people will agree with me and the other 50 will disagree with me...I guess that's what happens when you have heterogeneous agents...
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    • Thu Sep 4th 16:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Chinese Oil Problem
      Great Article! I have to agree with you that major integrated oil companies are not the way to play oil right now. After all with continued demand destruction in gasoline (at least in the US) and falling oil prices and an increase in the tax on dividends could spell trouble for the majors. If you really wanna play oil the safest is undoubtedly through the service companies like Schlumberger... These companies will continue to see business especially as oil becomes harder to find...
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    • Wed Aug 13th 17:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Six Reasons To Buy China Soon
      Great Article! I have to disagree that over the long run a super high savings rate is not always a good thing...After all, how do you get people to spend money in the face of a downturn if they save so much??...Japan couldn't figure it out throughout the 1990s. China's obviously not facing that right now, but it's something to keep in mind.

      I do have to say that you have to pick Chinese stocks very carefully. First, I don't believe any numbers provided by Chinese companies that aren't traded on an SEC regulated exchange. Also, many Chinese companies are situated in very precarious competitive positions. These companies are trying to "move up the value chain" and produce more technologically advanced products. This may be great for China as a country but could present a difficult scenario for investors since these firms have no history of producing such products so it may be difficult for investors to judge the company's competence. Also, China's companies are going to start competing more directly with firms firms in many developed countries especially those in southeast Asia. How that competitive landscape plays out often very difficult to determine especially given uncertainty in the international currency markets

      I know I've been rambling but I just want to say one last thing: A growing GDP does not necessarily mean success for investors. Jeremy Siegel in his book "Future For Investors" cites a study that found that stock returns are actually negatively correlated with gdp growth given that gdp growth is positive.
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    • Fri Aug 8th 01:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bear Market in Aerospace & Defense
      Great Article...I am very bullish on the defense sector for the very long term (this is a China play no one really talks about)... I agree with many points that you make especially with regards to the political elections...I will making a wishlist of defense companies before the election...If Senator Obama wins it is possible that some of these stocks may decline to even more attractive levels (while the fundamentals will remain virtually unchanged)...I guess we'll just have to hope and wait and see...
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    • Tue Aug 5th 10:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Tale of Two Industries
      I have to say, that the decrease in capital expenditures for the oil companies is quite troubling from both a political and shareholder point of view. Maybe the government should work on ways to encourage oil companies to increase exploration such as opening the gulf or windfall taxes on companies with decreasing capital expenditures...Also, I'm bearish on the major oil companies in the short run regardless of the political situation. After all, with falling prices and falling production may mean falling profits.
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    • Fri Aug 1st 13:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      3 Investment Ideas for the Rest of 2008 and 2009
      Good Article...However, I don't really agree with you on all of these trends. I will give you healthcare, but I not convinced that the dollar will necessarily rebound. After all, America just reported their highest unemployment rate in 4 years and oil prices are retreating. This may point towards steady or declining interest rates.

      Also, as for alternative energy...well...no one really knows which companies will emerge on top. This may make finding a winner particularly difficult...
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    • Fri Aug 1st 13:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Advertising, Consumer Spending: How Low Can It Go?
      Great Article...I have to say...this shouldn't be much of a surprise to anyone as all the media companies mentioned above are cyclical in nature. To further evince your point that ad revenue is slowing, mastercard recently reported higher than expected earnings with a lower marketing expense being a key factor.

      Also, there is more competition today than ever before advertisement dollars amongst media firms. One would expect that this would also decrease "prices" and profits...

      One final comment...can the street please keep downgrading disney and hammer the stock downward so we can all buy it...a few more articles like this will help...
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    • Thu Jul 31st 22:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Google Venture Capital: The Challenges
      I have to wonder weather Google is investing for strictly financial returns like most VCs or looking to gain access to certain developing technologies. If I were to guess, I'd have to say the latter. Obviously Google knows that a few small investments won't move the needle, but if you integrate these technologies into a larger net like Google's you could generate tremendous. As BayAreaGoogleGuy said above, google has not seen much success in acquisitions...we'll have to see if anything comes out of this new venture...
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    • Thu Jul 31st 13:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Caraco Pharmaceutical Laboratories: Fast Grower
      For those of you looking for some other stock ideas you can check out stockboxfinancial.com/ or stockboxfinancial.com/...
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    • Wed Jul 30th 17:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Exactech: Buy Now, or Wait for Earnings?
      Hi TraderMark, Nice article! and thanks for your kind words. I am not much of a chartist but I do believe in the bullish thesis for exactech.

      As I write this, Exactech just released their Q2 numbers (I might try and preempt others and write an article on this) but the numbers are quite impressive: Revenue up 38 percent (28 percent organic growth) and net income more than doubled. US growth was 24 percent showing that this sector may be immune from a domestic slowdown (I guess you don't put off getting that joint replacement just because gdp growth is down).

      margins did come down again, but only by 10 basis points (ahead of expectations).

      Also, if I'm reading the numbers correctly they increased the lower end of guidance...I haven't read through the financial statements yet but everything looks up to par so far...

      I have written a couple of exactech articles which, if you're interested, you can find here: stockboxfinancial.com/...
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    • Wed Jul 30th 17:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Long Case For Exactech
      For all of those who are interested the original from stockboxfinancial.com can be found here: stockboxfinancial.com/...

      You also may find some other stock ideas there
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    • Tue Jul 29th 18:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hardinge: Warren Buffett Would Love This Company
      Good Article...but one of the reasons for the falling dollar is a slowdown of the overall American economy and as this situation has taught us, the US economy can still affect economies around the world. Will foreign countries be willing to buy products from those HDNG in the fact of uncertainty and a prolonged slowdown?..I'm not so sure. Also, if the US economy gains strength and the dollar turns around what then?...
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    • Mon Jul 28th 13:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Long Case for Recent Spin-off A.H. Belo
      Great Article!... You mention how much cheaper AH Belo is than its competitors, some people might argue that this firm does not have the competitive advantages that these other firms have. Also, another concern is that the parent company in the spinoff is also a media...where will the extra efficiencies created by the spin off come from?..Also, for me personally to look at a situation like this I would have to see some pretty heavy insider buying to reassure me that this is indeed a true spinoff play...but again, a very good write up..
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