Portfolio Manager's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/117640/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/156887-genmab-punished-as-arzerra-stumbles-in-pivotal-trial-glaxo-also-affected?source=feed#comment-637916 637916 Thu, 20 Aug 2009 10:15:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143548-2009-looking-good-for-theravance?source=feed#comment-601447 601447 Fri, 24 Jul 2009 18:07:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130511-four-reasons-the-attack-on-short-selling-is-unreasonable?source=feed#comment-460812 460812 Sun, 12 Apr 2009 16:40:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124535-attention-fund-managers-it-s-time-to-buy?source=feed#comment-427708 427708

On Mar 06 02:39 PM OldLimey wrote:

> Doug Kass also said that November was the bottom.]]> Mon, 16 Mar 2009 11:49:29 -0400

On Mar 06 02:39 PM OldLimey wrote:

> Doug Kass also said that November was the bottom.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/30779-housing-decline-doug-kass-scenario-of-major-economic-impact-is-unlikely?source=feed#comment-426060 426060
]]> Sun, 15 Mar 2009 00:52:47 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122883-how-innovative-is-oracle?source=feed#comment-405358 405358 Fri, 27 Feb 2009 00:38:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112263-gilead-sciences-smart-company-great-track-record?source=feed#comment-338435 338435 Fri, 26 Dec 2008 00:17:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108035-why-we-re-ignoring-big-stock-market-moves?source=feed#comment-315223 315223 Wed, 26 Nov 2008 01:05:50 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95264-an-optimist-looks-at-the-market?source=feed#comment-253564 253564
1. Gas and oil prices are lower BECAUSE economies across the globe are slowing.

2. The GDP growth number is entirely fictitious. If one applies a realistic deflator (5%? 12%) instead of a ridiculous 1.3% inflation rate, then economic growth is negative--and has been for over a year.

3. The dollar is strengthening against the currencies of nations that are following us into recession.

4. The once in a lifetime opportunities are probably on the short side. Citibank and GE will survive in at best a diminished form. Microsoft is a plausible investment, but it faces many real risks.

5. Housing needs to drop another 15% before it reaches the historical average level of affordability. And it will probably overshoot on the downside. An average is not a floor.

5.]]> Sat, 13 Sep 2008 15:24:46 -0400
1. Gas and oil prices are lower BECAUSE economies across the globe are slowing.

2. The GDP growth number is entirely fictitious. If one applies a realistic deflator (5%? 12%) instead of a ridiculous 1.3% inflation rate, then economic growth is negative--and has been for over a year.

3. The dollar is strengthening against the currencies of nations that are following us into recession.

4. The once in a lifetime opportunities are probably on the short side. Citibank and GE will survive in at best a diminished form. Microsoft is a plausible investment, but it faces many real risks.

5. Housing needs to drop another 15% before it reaches the historical average level of affordability. And it will probably overshoot on the downside. An average is not a floor.

5.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90010-a-continued-short-case-for-automobile-finance-companies?source=feed#comment-230638 230638 Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:30:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90907-a-short-update-on-my-four-short-ideas?source=feed#comment-230622 230622 Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:04:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86446-us-banks-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly?source=feed#comment-213765 213765 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 17:18:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86784-news-flash-major-market-turns-aren-t-announced-in-advance?source=feed#comment-213755 213755
Tom knows an enormous amount about banks, and he was the top banking analyst on the street for seven years, if I am not mistaken. But he is clearly not objective in his assessment of this particular industry and the substantial risks it still faces.

There is also something deeply wrong with the culture of American banking. The incentive systems all revolve around volume rather than credit quality. At Anglo Irish Bank, one of the best-run banks in the world, you could get fired for bringing the central credit committee several risky loan proposals. At the typical large American bank, you might well get fired for trying to derail an unsound but temporarily lucrative corporate loan. A friend of mine had this experience at Citibank. He was saved only by a last-minute downgrade of the credit rating of the potential borrower. But the bankers he was supporting never forgave him. They didn't give a hoot whether the loan defaulted somewhere down the road. All they cared about was meeting their quotas.

It is possible that an investor might make money on some banks in the next three years. But why try to catch the falling knives and tomahawks when there are so many great companies, financial and otherwise, that don't have trillions of dollars of Level III capital and off-balance-sheet hanky panky? In the financial sector, I would point to Markel, Interactive Brokers, and CME, to name just a few. All three of those companies have managements that are not just prudent and ethical but visionary. ]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 17:02:41 -0400
Tom knows an enormous amount about banks, and he was the top banking analyst on the street for seven years, if I am not mistaken. But he is clearly not objective in his assessment of this particular industry and the substantial risks it still faces.

There is also something deeply wrong with the culture of American banking. The incentive systems all revolve around volume rather than credit quality. At Anglo Irish Bank, one of the best-run banks in the world, you could get fired for bringing the central credit committee several risky loan proposals. At the typical large American bank, you might well get fired for trying to derail an unsound but temporarily lucrative corporate loan. A friend of mine had this experience at Citibank. He was saved only by a last-minute downgrade of the credit rating of the potential borrower. But the bankers he was supporting never forgave him. They didn't give a hoot whether the loan defaulted somewhere down the road. All they cared about was meeting their quotas.

It is possible that an investor might make money on some banks in the next three years. But why try to catch the falling knives and tomahawks when there are so many great companies, financial and otherwise, that don't have trillions of dollars of Level III capital and off-balance-sheet hanky panky? In the financial sector, I would point to Markel, Interactive Brokers, and CME, to name just a few. All three of those companies have managements that are not just prudent and ethical but visionary. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86693-there-s-been-major-deflation-for-some-products?source=feed#comment-213619 213619 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 14:12:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84192-consensus-subprime-mortgage-loss-estimates-mathematically-impossible?source=feed#comment-201785 201785
Brown knows an enormous amount about banking, but his relentless cheerleading for the industry has cost him and his investors a great deal of money. And I suspect his rigid optimism will CONTINUE to cost him money.]]> Wed, 09 Jul 2008 17:17:13 -0400
Brown knows an enormous amount about banking, but his relentless cheerleading for the industry has cost him and his investors a great deal of money. And I suspect his rigid optimism will CONTINUE to cost him money.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73065-dendreon-the-fda-s-commissioner-doth-protest-too-much?source=feed#comment-154928 154928 Tue, 22 Apr 2008 19:15:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71557-biotech-stocks-sector-outlook-and-top-picks?source=feed#comment-151262 151262
BioMarin is also an excellent company, but as far as I can tell it is not quite as grossly undervalued as ZymoGenetics.]]> Tue, 15 Apr 2008 16:25:40 -0400
BioMarin is also an excellent company, but as far as I can tell it is not quite as grossly undervalued as ZymoGenetics.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/51587-countrywide-surges-on-expected-return-to-profitability-in-q4?source=feed#comment-100082 100082 Sat, 27 Oct 2007 21:30:04 -0400