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An Optimist Looks at the Market [View article]
1. Gas and oil prices are lower BECAUSE economies across the globe are slowing.
2. The GDP growth number is entirely fictitious. If one applies a realistic deflator (5%? 12%) instead of a ridiculous 1.3% inflation rate, then economic growth is negative--and has been for over a year.
3. The dollar is strengthening against the currencies of nations that are following us into recession.
4. The once in a lifetime opportunities are probably on the short side. Citibank and GE will survive in at best a diminished form. Microsoft is a plausible investment, but it faces many real risks.
5. Housing needs to drop another 15% before it reaches the historical average level of affordability. And it will probably overshoot on the downside. An average is not a floor.
5.