citetez's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/118081/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/140841-gm-finally-dies-does-the-u-s-have-similar-symptoms?source=feed#comment-527724 527724 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 08:08:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140010-banks-just-don-t-get-it?source=feed#comment-520827 520827 Thu, 28 May 2009 07:20:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137132-u-s-bank-shares-pump-almost-over-get-ready-for-the-dump?source=feed#comment-500066 500066 ]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 07:42:34 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129277-fasb-changes-perpetuate-fair-value-lying?source=feed#comment-450469 450469 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 07:21:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129289-the-fasb-rally-more-dishonest-breathing-room-for-banks?source=feed#comment-450460 450460 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 07:15:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124629-bank-liabilities-why-the-discussion-isn-t-explicit?source=feed#comment-416830 416830 Fri, 06 Mar 2009 21:40:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124446-we-cannot-afford-to-wait-to-recapitalize-u-s-banks?source=feed#comment-415320 415320 They will finally do away with the rule -- but too late. Tremendous damage has been done and it is accelerating.]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 23:51:18 -0500 They will finally do away with the rule -- but too late. Tremendous damage has been done and it is accelerating.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123409-the-ny-times-on-bank-nationalization?source=feed#comment-408096 408096 FDR suspended mark to market in 38 and it was not reinstituted unitl 2007.
These "insolvent" banks have more cash on hand then they have had in a long time. It is the unrealized "paper losses" that are killing them. One should note that Jamie Dimon has refused to sell JPM's "toxic" assets because they are not toxic -- only temporarily without a market. If forced to sell, they become a real loss. If held to maturity they are probably worth close to par. After the great depression, the Feds 1) suspended mark to market for banks because it distorts asset values if the market becomes illiquid and 2) instituted the uptick rule to rein in short sellers.
Those actions were reversed in 2007 and look where we are. ]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 13:49:32 -0500 FDR suspended mark to market in 38 and it was not reinstituted unitl 2007.
These "insolvent" banks have more cash on hand then they have had in a long time. It is the unrealized "paper losses" that are killing them. One should note that Jamie Dimon has refused to sell JPM's "toxic" assets because they are not toxic -- only temporarily without a market. If forced to sell, they become a real loss. If held to maturity they are probably worth close to par. After the great depression, the Feds 1) suspended mark to market for banks because it distorts asset values if the market becomes illiquid and 2) instituted the uptick rule to rein in short sellers.
Those actions were reversed in 2007 and look where we are. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121618-about-insurance-and-other-antitoxins-for-toxic-assets?source=feed#comment-398469 398469 Sun, 22 Feb 2009 10:25:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121844-guaranteeing-bank-stock-prices-is-not-the-answer?source=feed#comment-398148 398148 Sat, 21 Feb 2009 20:42:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120698-foreclosure-moratoriums-it-s-time-to-get-real?source=feed#comment-389523 389523 ]]> Sun, 15 Feb 2009 14:11:49 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120499-nationalizing-the-u-s-banking-sector-there-s-no-choice?source=feed#comment-386948 386948 Fri, 13 Feb 2009 09:21:59 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119293-a-solution-for-the-bad-asset-pricing-problem?source=feed#comment-380651 380651 The current problem initially arose from borrowers in unconventional mortgages who were being squeezed by an increase in their rates and without an ability to refinance either because they cannot find a loan they can afford or because their homes are depreciated in value. They went into foreclosure creating a downward pressure on home prices. As home prices were pushed down, others found that their equity no longer supported the loan they wanted. This was accentuated by layers of securitization. The mortgages were branded as “toxic” and the cancer spread into the perception of conventional mortgages causing a freeze in the mortgage securities market and in lending. Banks simply cannot lend because their mortgages are considered “toxic assets” that have to be devalued by mark-to-market rules that do not function in a dysfunctional market causing a hit to the bank’s capital requirements.
The answer is to break the cycle and recreate a vibrant mortgage market by creating reasonable loans to qualified individuals that the market can in fact “bank”on.
Most people do not want to walk away from their homes and want to avoid foreclosure at all costs. Answers involving forcing banks to take a capital loss on the loans and refinance with a lower equity value seem motivated by a desire to punish the bankers and can result in a windfall to homeowners. It seems tough to justify forcing the lenders to absorb the losses caused primarily by a market collapse, particularly when market collapses are often followed by a return of value. This is particularly true of the real estate market which tends to run in 10 to 15 year pricing cycles. It is almost inevitable that in 10 years most if not all homes will reach or exceed the values attributed at the peak of the last real estate rice boom. Accordingly, the most efficient answer is not the forced recognition of losses now, but a system which allows people to stay in their homes with mortgages they can pay and allow tie to address the value issue.
To accomplish this, the treasury should create a mortgage reparation plan utilizing the GSEs they now control. The Treasury should dedicate about 300 Billion of the remaining bail out funds to capitalize Fannie and Freddie Mac. These funds will be the entities capital base to address liquidity/confidence issues. The GSEs would then offer special mortgages to persons who: 1) currently have a mortgage other than a 15 year or 30 year fixed mortgage; 2) are not more than 2 payments behind on their current mortgage; 3) are living in the home in question as their primary residence; and 4) can establish an ability to afford the payments on the new mortgage. The terms of the special mortgages would designed to assist affordability: They would be 45 year mortgages offered with a rate fixed for 15 years at a fixed rate based on current market rates, and after 15 years the rate would reset at the then current rate. Qualification would be based on ability to pay under those terms. The loan amount could not exceed current mortgage debt (i.e., no “cash-out” loans) and the loan would be available without reference to the home’s current value.
The 45 year term would lower monthly payments substantially to make the mortgage affordable. The fixed rate would alleviate the problems of adjustable rate resets. The loan is fair to the homeowner because they are able to stay in their home with an affordable monthly payment. They are not forced to take the loss in home value occasioned by market conditions, nor is the bank. Banks would get capital infusions as mortgages are paid off. The number of foreclosures should then move toward more normal levels. With time, the market would reflate, and the homeowner could refinance or sell at their leisure. Under this scenario, most of the special mortgages would not reach the 15 year rate reset, and for those that did, the homeowner would probably have more and better options than are available today.
The GSEs, solvent and with a restored market confidence would be able to float bonds supported by the new mortages, and backed by the 300 Billion capital infusion which would be dedicated as a capital reserve for the mortage program. Once in place, the program should allow the bleeding to stop and permit time to heal the wounds our housing market and financial system has suffered.
]]> Mon, 09 Feb 2009 07:14:14 -0500 The current problem initially arose from borrowers in unconventional mortgages who were being squeezed by an increase in their rates and without an ability to refinance either because they cannot find a loan they can afford or because their homes are depreciated in value. They went into foreclosure creating a downward pressure on home prices. As home prices were pushed down, others found that their equity no longer supported the loan they wanted. This was accentuated by layers of securitization. The mortgages were branded as “toxic” and the cancer spread into the perception of conventional mortgages causing a freeze in the mortgage securities market and in lending. Banks simply cannot lend because their mortgages are considered “toxic assets” that have to be devalued by mark-to-market rules that do not function in a dysfunctional market causing a hit to the bank’s capital requirements.
The answer is to break the cycle and recreate a vibrant mortgage market by creating reasonable loans to qualified individuals that the market can in fact “bank”on.
Most people do not want to walk away from their homes and want to avoid foreclosure at all costs. Answers involving forcing banks to take a capital loss on the loans and refinance with a lower equity value seem motivated by a desire to punish the bankers and can result in a windfall to homeowners. It seems tough to justify forcing the lenders to absorb the losses caused primarily by a market collapse, particularly when market collapses are often followed by a return of value. This is particularly true of the real estate market which tends to run in 10 to 15 year pricing cycles. It is almost inevitable that in 10 years most if not all homes will reach or exceed the values attributed at the peak of the last real estate rice boom. Accordingly, the most efficient answer is not the forced recognition of losses now, but a system which allows people to stay in their homes with mortgages they can pay and allow tie to address the value issue.
To accomplish this, the treasury should create a mortgage reparation plan utilizing the GSEs they now control. The Treasury should dedicate about 300 Billion of the remaining bail out funds to capitalize Fannie and Freddie Mac. These funds will be the entities capital base to address liquidity/confidence issues. The GSEs would then offer special mortgages to persons who: 1) currently have a mortgage other than a 15 year or 30 year fixed mortgage; 2) are not more than 2 payments behind on their current mortgage; 3) are living in the home in question as their primary residence; and 4) can establish an ability to afford the payments on the new mortgage. The terms of the special mortgages would designed to assist affordability: They would be 45 year mortgages offered with a rate fixed for 15 years at a fixed rate based on current market rates, and after 15 years the rate would reset at the then current rate. Qualification would be based on ability to pay under those terms. The loan amount could not exceed current mortgage debt (i.e., no “cash-out” loans) and the loan would be available without reference to the home’s current value.
The 45 year term would lower monthly payments substantially to make the mortgage affordable. The fixed rate would alleviate the problems of adjustable rate resets. The loan is fair to the homeowner because they are able to stay in their home with an affordable monthly payment. They are not forced to take the loss in home value occasioned by market conditions, nor is the bank. Banks would get capital infusions as mortgages are paid off. The number of foreclosures should then move toward more normal levels. With time, the market would reflate, and the homeowner could refinance or sell at their leisure. Under this scenario, most of the special mortgages would not reach the 15 year rate reset, and for those that did, the homeowner would probably have more and better options than are available today.
The GSEs, solvent and with a restored market confidence would be able to float bonds supported by the new mortages, and backed by the 300 Billion capital infusion which would be dedicated as a capital reserve for the mortage program. Once in place, the program should allow the bleeding to stop and permit time to heal the wounds our housing market and financial system has suffered.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97104-a-proposed-admirable-response-to-the-crisis?source=feed#comment-263238 263238 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 07:30:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96934-government-bailout-we-are-all-keynesians-now?source=feed#comment-263100 263100 Tue, 23 Sep 2008 23:16:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97006-paulson-bernanke-700-billion-at-hold-to-maturity-pricing?source=feed#comment-263096 263096 Tue, 23 Sep 2008 23:08:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96382-puts-instead-of-shorts-today-s-activity?source=feed#comment-259877 259877 My HO only.]]> Sat, 20 Sep 2008 09:18:15 -0400 My HO only.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91557-cellphone-showdown-meet-the-gphone?source=feed#comment-234214 234214 ]]> Tue, 19 Aug 2008 16:14:53 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80263-does-yahoo-have-an-apple-ish-turnaround-ahead-of-it?source=feed#comment-180022 180022 Thu, 05 Jun 2008 21:39:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79187-cell-tower-fatalities-3g-iphones-at-any-price?source=feed#comment-175350 175350
The "four months before that" were, of course the period commonly known as "winter," when one would generally expect less work on the outside lines if avoidable. How about a comparison to the same time frame last year? I bet more people have also been injured working on phone lines during daylight hours conclusively proving that it is safer to work at night.
Half the workers injured were working on ATT "projects". That means half weren't. Do we have any basis to believe that the injured individuals were doing anything related to 3G? Or do you assume that all ATT "Projects" are 3-G related. How can you make an APPLE connection?
]]> Wed, 28 May 2008 13:24:56 -0400
The "four months before that" were, of course the period commonly known as "winter," when one would generally expect less work on the outside lines if avoidable. How about a comparison to the same time frame last year? I bet more people have also been injured working on phone lines during daylight hours conclusively proving that it is safer to work at night.
Half the workers injured were working on ATT "projects". That means half weren't. Do we have any basis to believe that the injured individuals were doing anything related to 3G? Or do you assume that all ATT "Projects" are 3-G related. How can you make an APPLE connection?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75332-microsoft-no-intention-to-overbid-yahoo?source=feed#comment-160552 160552 Fri, 02 May 2008 07:56:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66126-fed-continues-to-discourage-regular-joe-americans-from-saving?source=feed#comment-119558 119558 Wed, 27 Feb 2008 00:15:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/65084-apple-s-at-t-deal-is-costly?source=feed#comment-117071 117071 Tue, 19 Feb 2008 07:44:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/61227-blame-it-on-ipod-s-near-zero-growth?source=feed#comment-112428 112428 Wed, 23 Jan 2008 12:34:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/61198-wall-street-panics-apple-pays?source=feed#comment-112372 112372 "1.44 billion in deferred earnings [attributable to iPhones sold during the last two quarters] up from $636 million last quarter". Those deferred revenues-- money in the bank waiting to be entered as earnings--will be a major benefit in the future.]]> Wed, 23 Jan 2008 08:23:49 -0500 "1.44 billion in deferred earnings [attributable to iPhones sold during the last two quarters] up from $636 million last quarter". Those deferred revenues-- money in the bank waiting to be entered as earnings--will be a major benefit in the future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/60439-need-netflix-worry-over-apple-s-movie-rentals?source=feed#comment-110898 110898
The result could be a TV viewing system with Apple's simplicity and elegance. The Apple TV box sits discretely on a shelf. A large screen sits on the wall with no wires (except maybe power if there is no hidden outlet behind the TV). Images come wirelessly form the box to the TV. Better yet, Jobs links it all to your MAC so you now have full computer/internet capability in your living room on the HD TV as well.

Just a thought.]]> Wed, 16 Jan 2008 17:31:23 -0500
The result could be a TV viewing system with Apple's simplicity and elegance. The Apple TV box sits discretely on a shelf. A large screen sits on the wall with no wires (except maybe power if there is no hidden outlet behind the TV). Images come wirelessly form the box to the TV. Better yet, Jobs links it all to your MAC so you now have full computer/internet capability in your living room on the HD TV as well.

Just a thought.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/60064-controversial-morning-for-apple?source=feed#comment-110141 110141 Mon, 14 Jan 2008 08:23:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59859-research-in-motion-downgraded-by-longtime-bull?source=feed#comment-109650 109650 Fri, 11 Jan 2008 11:28:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/58356-the-inevitable-derivative-meltdown?source=feed#comment-106959 106959 Wed, 26 Dec 2007 16:27:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/51695-why-is-everyone-racing-to-buy-facebook?source=feed#comment-100208 100208 Mon, 29 Oct 2007 14:07:24 -0400