Seeking Alpha

TheLittleGoat

TheLittleGoat
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View TheLittleGoat's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Earnings Evaporate At Dangdang And Qunar [View article]
    QUNR is mostly owned by Baidu. The American float is actually pretty small. You think parent company Baidu wants to see their big investment turn into nothing?

    When you are growing at a 90% annual rate, profits can wait while the market is captured.
    Aug 12 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ctrip: Reviewing The Development Strategy Prior To Q2 Earnings [View article]
    So if Qunar dominates the market it will have no impact on CTrip? Are they competitors or not?

    A sale of an air ticket through Qunar and an airline or a wholeseller or a hotel is one less sale for CTrip. Or the hotels directly integrated with the Qunar platform with Qunar doing the $ processing. How is that not competition?
    Jul 25 09:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ctrip: Reviewing The Development Strategy Prior To Q2 Earnings [View article]
    Pretty good write up but how can you completely ignore Ctrip's biggest rival Qunar (owned by China internet giant Baidu)?

    Qunar CEO says they have 22% of China air market while Ctrip is at 18%. Ctrip is much stronger on the higher margin hotel side of things.
    Source: http://cnb.cx/1jVu7Wq

    Qunar is #2 overall in China's online space and yet you address how Ctrip matches up with the #3, #4, etc players while ignoring their biggest threat. Why?
    Jul 23 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Is There Life Beyond The Alibaba IPO? [View article]
    Here is the math that shows how an Alibaba purchase of Yahoo makes amazing sense:
    http://bit.ly/1rXflAS
    Jul 10 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Is There Life Beyond The Alibaba IPO? [View article]
    No because Alibaba should buy Yahoo after the IPO. They could almost pay for the entire thing in the capigal gains tax savings from retiring Yahoo's Alibaba stock.
    Jul 9 04:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Vs. Kate Spade Vs. Coach: The Battle Of The Brands [View article]
    Have fun. That's how this game works and the truth always comes out in time. Btw I have no short on COH and not because I don't believe they are in some trouble but because it is way easier to make money on the long side right now than picking scraps on short side with all the liquidity sloshing around.
    Jul 1 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Vs. Kate Spade Vs. Coach: The Battle Of The Brands [View article]
    KATE is the brand with the most growth and momentum among the stylish, young, and rich Chinese. This is the position Coach was in 5 years ago. Tastes change and we are seeing the massive sea change in progress as we speak. Current financials matter but consumer sentiment among leading industry demographics is what will impact future sales direction.
    Jul 1 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Vs. Kate Spade Vs. Coach: The Battle Of The Brands [View article]
    Here is the problem with Coach. A massive amount of its sales are from Chinese and their tastes are shifting away from Coach as they find out it isn't cool anymore. Everyone has a Coach now and the new trend in Chinese fashion is to be unique and have exclusive brands. Coach is no longer see as exclusive.

    I went to the Coach store in SoCal and it was 90%+ Chinese tourists. This tells me it still has a long way to fall as the most stylish girls in China have already moved on and the followers are still in that process which is why Coach has fallen some but probably has more down to go.
    Jul 1 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sina's Q1 2014 Result: Against The Tide [View article]
    Sina is 4th most visited website in China. Weibo is 6th.
    May 16 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Evaporate At Dangdang And Qunar [View article]
    Qunar's management has guided very conservatively the last two quarters and beat strongly on revenue so I would be shocked if they did not meet guidance in Q2. Also my checks of organic search traffic for Qunar in China are consistent with more acceleration into Q2.

    2013 Q3 57%
    2013 Q4 74% (on 66-65 % growth guidance)
    2014 Q1 84% (on 65-70 % growth guidance)
    2014 Q2 ??? (on 90-95 % growth guidance)

    Qunar's profitability Q1 was hit for 2 main reasons:
    1) Recognition of non-cash expense related to Baidu stock warrants
    2) Investment in technology and staff (Qunar grew headcount over 50% QonQ! from about 2,500 to 3,800 staff). Qunar is currently going around China signing up hotels, etc into their system that have never been online. Qunar said that the staff ramp for this purpose will end after Q2 so that should help margins in the back half of the year.

    "I have no doubt that the year-ago profit was at least partly the result of aggressive accounting to make the company more attractive in the run-up to its IPO."
    That would be fraud. Do you have any evidence? Qunar is run very differently now than a year ago because just recently Qunar started their investment (spending) push backed by Baidu to become the #1 travel website in China (stated goal) and pass CTRIP (who is current leader but growing at a slower but healthy 35%).
    May 16 02:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sina's Q1 2014 Result: Against The Tide [View article]
    "US$199m in revenue (+37% y/y), a rather aggressive estimate in my view"

    Why is that aggressive when SINA's Q1 revenue was +41% YoY?
    May 12 09:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Yelp A Good Investment? [View article]
    Personally I have found YELP to be an invaluable tool especially at finding local and ethnic cuisine. I can find the best Korean BBQ in LA, the best Cuban food in Orlando, etc. I also can see pictures of dishes and people talking about specific meals they ordered, how spicy they were, etc.

    I find that in general, people in their 20s and 30s actually have a great deal more knowledge about world food than order generations. Older generations tend to shy away from authentic foreign foods so I like it that I can read review from Vietnamese in their 20s about what is the best Pho in town. Also Yelp's highest racial overweight is towards Asians which, as a huge fan of Asian food, makes the platform more valuable to me than others may find it.

    I personally have seen far more ratings manipulation in Google Reviews than Yelp and besides them, there isn't a lot of other great options out there for reviews. All reviews can have issues but overall I think Yelp reviews are actually the most solid on the internet and I run an online/tech consulting biz.

    Yelp's biggest problem is their advertising model where businesses have to make a large financial commitment to start advertising on the platform. If they had a system where people could bid for ads with small amounts of money, more biz would give them a try and after proving value in a small way could get more biz. Facebook has done awesome with this.
    May 5 05:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yelp Is Headed Towards Another Year Without A Profit [View article]
    Big difference... Local had a DECLINE in revenue between 2012 and 2013 while YELP revenue revenue grew 68%.

    Investors want to buy a company that is going places. A company that isn't growing much and still losing money (Local Corp) is a dead company if they can't turn things around fast.

    Local also only has 5 million in cast and more current liabilities than current assets which puts its future in great danger.
    May 5 05:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Yelp A Good Investment? [View article]
    +13.3% so far today. Glad I didn't follow your advice.
    May 1 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Yelp A Good Investment? [View article]
    YELP traffic data shows an over-weighting of 18-44 year old users compared to rest of internet.

    Also shows YELP gets extra traffic from those with high education... college grads and those with graduate degrees while those with no college tend to visit YELP less compared to other sites.
    May 1 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
94 Comments
103 Likes