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TheLittleGoat

TheLittleGoat
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  • Short TrueCar: First Mover, First Loser [View article]
    Their search traffic looks way up to me. The problem is this author didn't use exact search terms but just the "TrueCar" company search trend which isn't a good use of Google Analytics.
    Oct 7, 2014. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qunar Q2 2014: Heavy Investment Outweighs Growth [View article]
    QUNR is 17 P/S based on last 4Q.
    QUNR is 9.4 P/S based on my estimates for next 4Q.
    Aug 26, 2014. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Left Holding The Bag: A Kate Spade, Michael Kors Pair Trade [View article]
    Earnings of +0.05 last quarter.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 22, 2014. 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kate Spade: Still Not A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
    "The shares of Kate are down 16% over the last week, as it revised longer-term guidance downward."

    That is factually incorrect. Kate said that later this year they would review their guidance for 2016 and MAY revise it. They didn't actually revise down any financial guidance. The only guidance they changed was an upgrade to 2014 guidance.

    You should not make false statements. I'm not saying it is a buy or a sell, just saying you should have your facts right.
    Aug 22, 2014. 04:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Left Holding The Bag: A Kate Spade, Michael Kors Pair Trade [View article]
    Just because consumers are fickle doesn't mean it isn't possible to know. That is what good analysts do. I was just in China for 3 weeks. What do you think I was doing? I was finding out what brands the influential young people were high in that would then spread to other parts of the market. The future can be predicted, just not with 100% accuracy.
    Aug 22, 2014. 04:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit Leaps At 58.com, Loss Soars At Qunar [View article]
    "even as it forecast a sharp drop in revenue growth in the current quarter"
    Qunar's guidance last quarter was 90-95% and they blew that out with 127%.

    They are guiding again for 90-95%.

    So if they have guided rev very conservatively and beaten that strongly EVERY Q in their history as a public company, why won't the current Q be the same? If history repeats the last 2 quarters then they won't see a 'sharp' slowing of growth from 127% to 93% because guidance won't be the real number just like it wasn't for this Q or the Q before that.

    Priceline is worth 67B. Ctrip 9B and Qunar 3.5B. Whomever wins the online travel wars in China going to be worth a lot. Half of Priceline at 33B maybe? If so the winner of Ctrip vs Baidu/Qunar has a lot of upside.
    Aug 22, 2014. 04:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo's China Strategy Is Paying Off [View article]
    Have they made money from any of these acquisitions yet? Until they do they are not smart. Time will tell if they are.
    Aug 21, 2014. 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Evaporate At Dangdang And Qunar [View article]
    QUNR is mostly owned by Baidu. The American float is actually pretty small. You think parent company Baidu wants to see their big investment turn into nothing?

    When you are growing at a 90% annual rate, profits can wait while the market is captured.
    Aug 12, 2014. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ctrip: Reviewing The Development Strategy Prior To Q2 Earnings [View article]
    So if Qunar dominates the market it will have no impact on CTrip? Are they competitors or not?

    A sale of an air ticket through Qunar and an airline or a wholeseller or a hotel is one less sale for CTrip. Or the hotels directly integrated with the Qunar platform with Qunar doing the $ processing. How is that not competition?
    Jul 25, 2014. 09:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ctrip: Reviewing The Development Strategy Prior To Q2 Earnings [View article]
    Pretty good write up but how can you completely ignore Ctrip's biggest rival Qunar (owned by China internet giant Baidu)?

    Qunar CEO says they have 22% of China air market while Ctrip is at 18%. Ctrip is much stronger on the higher margin hotel side of things.
    Source: http://cnb.cx/1jVu7Wq

    Qunar is #2 overall in China's online space and yet you address how Ctrip matches up with the #3, #4, etc players while ignoring their biggest threat. Why?
    Jul 23, 2014. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Is There Life Beyond The Alibaba IPO? [View article]
    Here is the math that shows how an Alibaba purchase of Yahoo makes amazing sense:
    http://bit.ly/1rXflAS
    Jul 10, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Is There Life Beyond The Alibaba IPO? [View article]
    No because Alibaba should buy Yahoo after the IPO. They could almost pay for the entire thing in the capigal gains tax savings from retiring Yahoo's Alibaba stock.
    Jul 9, 2014. 04:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Vs. Kate Spade Vs. Coach: The Battle Of The Brands [View article]
    Have fun. That's how this game works and the truth always comes out in time. Btw I have no short on COH and not because I don't believe they are in some trouble but because it is way easier to make money on the long side right now than picking scraps on short side with all the liquidity sloshing around.
    Jul 1, 2014. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Vs. Kate Spade Vs. Coach: The Battle Of The Brands [View article]
    KATE is the brand with the most growth and momentum among the stylish, young, and rich Chinese. This is the position Coach was in 5 years ago. Tastes change and we are seeing the massive sea change in progress as we speak. Current financials matter but consumer sentiment among leading industry demographics is what will impact future sales direction.
    Jul 1, 2014. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Vs. Kate Spade Vs. Coach: The Battle Of The Brands [View article]
    Here is the problem with Coach. A massive amount of its sales are from Chinese and their tastes are shifting away from Coach as they find out it isn't cool anymore. Everyone has a Coach now and the new trend in Chinese fashion is to be unique and have exclusive brands. Coach is no longer see as exclusive.

    I went to the Coach store in SoCal and it was 90%+ Chinese tourists. This tells me it still has a long way to fall as the most stylish girls in China have already moved on and the followers are still in that process which is why Coach has fallen some but probably has more down to go.
    Jul 1, 2014. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
101 Comments
109 Likes