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  • Brazil soars as support drops for president [View news story]
    Bought Sept EWZ 49 puts.......
    Jun 7 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economath: Economics - IS/LM + Krugman Cross = Win [View article]
    Hi Don,

    If you are saying less regulation and more government spending on roads and infrastructure as well as our energy complex, I agree. If you think we need more welfare, food stamps, expensive healthcare, and waste, I am not with you.

    Government has a role in the economy but it is to keep order and stay on the sidelines. The SEC could not stop the Eron and Worldcom issues so Congress enacted Sarbanes Oxley only to miss the whole banking mess that has caused this current recession. So now we have Dodd Frank and I will bet my life that it will not protect investors or the economy from the next major financial crisis. In fact, it might be the cause of it.
    Aug 24 09:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economath: Economics - IS/LM + Krugman Cross = Win [View article]
    Dr. Krugman is a big time liberal who believes the government is the answer to all economic problems. The problem with the economy is government intervention. There is no velocity of money into the economy (just more bank reserves re-invested into the equity markets) and labor participation is at an all time low reducing the number of real consumers and viable tax payers.

    If this QE program was so great, the economy would be much better after 4 years and it could be removed at anytime without risk to the economy or the markets. Is there anyone on planet today that believes if the QE stopped tomorrow, the markets would keep climbing and the economy could stand on its own without a lot of pain first? The answer is clearly no and that is why spending more than you take in is never good and borrowing to pay for overspending is how all great economies end up in the ditch.
    Aug 23 11:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: More Volatility Yet To Come [View article]
    Good article. Gold like all assets that are traded will likely move around a lot over the next 2 months as congress comes back in session and the FED speaks again.
    The dollar has been weak lately but it will settle then rebound. When it strengthens it will move gold and crude down again. The pair trade I have on in the near term is long the dollar with UUP and short the miners DUST and or SCO.
    Aug 17 08:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Wasn't Wrong Buying DUST This Week -- I Was Just Early. Nope, I Was Wrong. Now What! [View instapost]

    From your mouth to God's ears. I basically made the exact same trades this week as you described in this article. I sold half my position at the close to free up cash for next week. I hold 300 shares at a cost of 61. I will set a stop at 45 and wait for it to settle at 40 or so. The technicals show support at 35 but I would be willing to buy at 40.

    Gold is a mess and will move in extreme ways on the dollar, rates, and middle east news. Regardless, I believe it will fail and reverse at 1400 then could retest 1200. It would not surprise me to see Dust at 100 again before the end of the month. I willing to play 200 to 300 shares at these levels.
    Aug 17 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Far From Spectacular 2Q13 Earnings Not Dampening Stock Enthusiasm [View article]
    Good article. I think small caps are at the most risk today. They are trading well above the S&P and the PE is 20 times forward earnings. That is rich by any standard for an index but I continue to see people recommending the IWM. To me its a bigger short than than the bond market today.
    Aug 3 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Too Much Complacency In The Market [View article]
    Great point Jake. It seems pretty clear that the risks to the downside is greater than the potential for a new major leg up from here without a meaningful correction.

    I am not bearish long term but do not believe markets can go straight up forever particularly in a weak economy with high unemployment. It's all about consumer to me. The big question remains, is this the beginning a new secular bull market or the end of a secular bear? Seems like there is a 50% - 50% split on this site.

    To your point, if it is the beginning of a new secular bull, I would prefer to miss the first 5% of it versus risk 50% to the downside if the secular bear is not done.

    There is nothing wrong with building cash reserves and taking some profits particularly this time of year. We still have the debt debate and the Fed meeting coming Sept. I am also watching the 10 year T-bill rate, more big city defaults on the heals of Detroit, and the middle east. Black Swan potential.
    Aug 3 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Trifecta Says Stocks Can Move Higher [View article]
    Small caps seem to be way ahead of the other markets and is trading at 19 times earnings. If there is a pullback or correction, IWM will fall first and the farthest. The risk to the downside is much greater than the potential for upside at this point. I am fading the IWM rally with a TZA position at $24.55 looking for the Russell to revist 950 in August.
    Aug 1 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Earnings Do Not Add Up [View article]
    Beware of Detroit. It could be the start of a landslide of other city defaults. That will be a problem for the economy and markets.
    Jul 30 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New S&P All-Time High Vs. 2007 Peak [View article]

    Do you have a bottomline direction for the market between now and the end of the year? Do we have a near term correction of 5 to 10% through the fall then return to new highs? Do we trade sideways then higher or lower? Do we just grind higher? I hate to chase rallies that are new all time highs and I hate to short markets against the Fed.
    Jul 13 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Vs. The 4-Year Presidential Cycle [View article]

    Interesting topic. It seems for every reason we could correct, there are an equal number that say we will go higher. There are many mixed signals from bad economic numbers to good corporate earnings. At the end of the day, I need to go with my gut which tells me the chance of higher highs versus a major correction are not good. I prefer to stay on the sidelines until the
    Fed gets out of the way and we can see the markets perform without help.

    The fact that the market sells off everytime the Fed talks about exiting, tells me this market lacks investor trust. This makes sense to me given the underlying poor economic conditions such as low GDP growth, consistently high unemployment, and weak consumer sentiment.

    UPS, FedEx, and today Wal-Mart are warning that the consumer is hurting and the US economy is weak. Global economies are no better. This is not a set up for a new raging bull market. It is a recipe for a triple top that could lead to a triple bottom before a new secular bull market can begin.

    By the way, for all those that say there is no alternative investment so you have to buy stocks or bonds because cash loses to inflation and opportunity......infla... is not a factor and I would have loved to have been in cash in June of 2008 through March of 2009 but my broker said the massive downturn was a normal correction. I do not believe losing 60% in 9 months in normal. I would prefer to miss the first 15% of new secular bull than take the losses on the way to a triple bottom if the S&P decides to test the 667 lows while every broker in world is saying "buy the dip!"
    Jul 13 03:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Stock Market Ramp – The Latest In A Long Litany Of Market Manipulations [View instapost]

    I share your positions on the economy and its disconnect with the markets. I too, am a very frustrated bear. The source of my bearishness is my connection to the transportation industry that is generally a leading economic indicator. The industry has been flat for the last 3 years and it feels like it is about to roll over as it did in 2007-8 as there are no catalysts for trucking companies to buy more trucks.

    That is to say, without substantial infrastructure building, home construction, coal mining and other energy activity, trucking will contract. Trucking does not contract or remain flat in a growing economy. Truck purchases explode 6 to 9 months prior to a recovery. There is no sign of a recovery in sight.

    The poor economic numbers are real. GDP is flat, prices are high on things we need like gas, food, clothing, and health care not to mention all taxes are up this year as well. All loan rates indexed to treasuries will go up increasing the cost of debt for individuals and businesses. Unemployment is high and labor participation is low. The biggest consumer population in history is retiring at a record pace and their kids, while educated, are unemployed, in debt and not ready to invest.

    Conclusion: I am bearish on the global and US economy therefore bearish on the markets. I am long SRTY and NUGT.

    Jul 7 11:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks Continue To Dominate: What's Next? [View article]

    With respect, the economy and the markets are comprised of buyers, sellers, companies, and money therefore connected. I should have use the term divergence when describing the move up in the market relative to the flat economy.

    Generational shifts, demographic changes, and population size have a huge impact on consumption and economic activity. The number of people in an economy with the means to consume goods and services drive business revenues, earnings, and therefore stock values.
    Jul 7 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Stock Market Ramp – The Latest In A Long Litany Of Market Manipulations [View instapost]

    Very intelligent response. Thanks for contributing in a meaningful way. Well done. I am sure readers of JS article can't wait to see what you have to say next.
    Jul 7 11:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks Continue To Dominate: What's Next? [View article]
    Good article Ron.

    I believe the stock market is disconnected from the economy. As you noted GDP is terrible, unemployment is high, inflation is real and rising (just look at gas, clothing, and food prices), and the cost of debt is going up with increase in treasury yields. Great point on demographics as well. As 80 million boomers retire and take their money out of the market, 45 million Gen Xers are not a big enough group to replace it and the 95 million Gen Y's have massive debt and will not hit their prime earning years until 2018-28. With this, the market should be flat to falling not hitting new highs but as someone famous once said, the market can be irrational longer than investors can be solvent.

    Since 2009, financial institutuions and banks have been able to borrow money from the Fed at zero or close to it and invest that money, the markets have exploded up. With low rates, companies can borrow and buy stock back as well. What happens to the markets when this ends? My guess is the markets fall and the regular investors lose 50% again. Ugly.

    Jul 7 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment