KSTHANE's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/118742/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/170806-h-r-block-stars-are-aligning?source=feed#comment-742545 742545
Is there any reason that JTX couldn't get an agreement with HSBC or some other bank similar to HRB's agreement?

Regardless of all of these skeptical questions, I agree with your overall premise. I think that the bigger competitive threat is Intuit though, so I was pleased to hear on the last call that they are going to be more proactive with advertising.]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:19:47 -0500
Is there any reason that JTX couldn't get an agreement with HSBC or some other bank similar to HRB's agreement?

Regardless of all of these skeptical questions, I agree with your overall premise. I think that the bigger competitive threat is Intuit though, so I was pleased to hear on the last call that they are going to be more proactive with advertising.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170806-h-r-block-stars-are-aligning?source=feed#comment-742301 742301
I guess if HRB was smart they would point out in advertising that their smaller competitors are charging these fees and that they have no such thing...or maybe they should charge the fees too.]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:48:02 -0500
I guess if HRB was smart they would point out in advertising that their smaller competitors are charging these fees and that they have no such thing...or maybe they should charge the fees too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/248498-lee-eugene-munson/9433-return-to-actual-knowledge-and-skill-for-managers-and-analysts?source=feed#comment-557921 557921 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:27:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143557-best-buy-reaction-could-reflect-sentiment-change?source=feed#comment-552969 552969 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 18:04:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139015-kohl-s-the-new-target?source=feed#comment-519607 519607
Suddenly the customers that used to shop at Target are walking into a newly remodeled Wal-Mart store that has beautiful, clean floors, no blue vested employees, a softer blue hue and more feminine signage and a completely revamped apparel assortment that actually comes from brands they've heard of....oh, and it's cheaper too. Wal-Mart has moved up the ladder while Target is trying to climb down it.

That doesn't mean Target isn't worthy of investment though. Their P-fresh stores concept really sounds like it can work and the company can get unit growth in smaller markets with them without sacrificing too much ROIC.

Kohl's has the same story it's had all along...they're not taking share from Target, they're taking it from mall based department stores like JCP and Sears.]]> Wed, 27 May 2009 11:33:19 -0400
Suddenly the customers that used to shop at Target are walking into a newly remodeled Wal-Mart store that has beautiful, clean floors, no blue vested employees, a softer blue hue and more feminine signage and a completely revamped apparel assortment that actually comes from brands they've heard of....oh, and it's cheaper too. Wal-Mart has moved up the ladder while Target is trying to climb down it.

That doesn't mean Target isn't worthy of investment though. Their P-fresh stores concept really sounds like it can work and the company can get unit growth in smaller markets with them without sacrificing too much ROIC.

Kohl's has the same story it's had all along...they're not taking share from Target, they're taking it from mall based department stores like JCP and Sears.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132695-scrutinizing-apollo-the-deeper-you-look-the-more-problems-you-see?source=feed#comment-479530 479530
I also like that his reasoning includes that "the administration" will be watchful of students racking up piles of debt getting an education from Phoenix. First off, currently having 350,000 students is not some random fluke from clever advertising and marketing...it's an indicator of value and quality. Second, if the administration wants to target a racket in education they should focus on the far larger pool of people going to public schools that are racking up debt and not repaying. Those students aren't usually nearly as prepared to pay debts because they don't already have jobs like many APOL students do. "The administration" targeting a relatively small pool of non-trad students at Phoenix would be counterproductive to what it actually wants to accomplish.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 14:04:42 -0400
I also like that his reasoning includes that "the administration" will be watchful of students racking up piles of debt getting an education from Phoenix. First off, currently having 350,000 students is not some random fluke from clever advertising and marketing...it's an indicator of value and quality. Second, if the administration wants to target a racket in education they should focus on the far larger pool of people going to public schools that are racking up debt and not repaying. Those students aren't usually nearly as prepared to pay debts because they don't already have jobs like many APOL students do. "The administration" targeting a relatively small pool of non-trad students at Phoenix would be counterproductive to what it actually wants to accomplish.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133255-target-shoppers-heading-to-wal-mart-in-droves?source=feed#comment-479504 479504
Of course Target isn't going to suddenly have a full, new plan just because the economy is weaker. For the past 5 years they've been adding more consumables to the mix and they're simply going to continue that plan along with emphasizing the "pay less" part of the slogan. Frankly, I'd be more concerned if management was going to come up with a brand new strategy due to this recession. Downturns like this should be included in any management team's long term strategy and a brand new plan would indicate to me that they weren't good long range planners to begin with.

As for Ackman, I don't really mind if he gets seats on the board but I think his plan is financial engineering at best. I am not a fan of his plan for TGT.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:52:05 -0400
Of course Target isn't going to suddenly have a full, new plan just because the economy is weaker. For the past 5 years they've been adding more consumables to the mix and they're simply going to continue that plan along with emphasizing the "pay less" part of the slogan. Frankly, I'd be more concerned if management was going to come up with a brand new strategy due to this recession. Downturns like this should be included in any management team's long term strategy and a brand new plan would indicate to me that they weren't good long range planners to begin with.

As for Ackman, I don't really mind if he gets seats on the board but I think his plan is financial engineering at best. I am not a fan of his plan for TGT.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133262-retailers-are-missing-an-opportunity-in-counterfeit-goods?source=feed#comment-479489 479489 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:41:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129611-should-nike-make-a-play-for-under-armour?source=feed#comment-453774 453774
I think there are better, more distressed properties out there that Nike could buy (DC Shoes from Quiksilver) where they don't have as big a presence. Nike will eventually bury Under Armor.

By the way, Under Armor's shoes are horrible and getting little traction in stores; if Nike wants to buy UA they can do it after the shoe failure materializes.]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 14:45:04 -0400
I think there are better, more distressed properties out there that Nike could buy (DC Shoes from Quiksilver) where they don't have as big a presence. Nike will eventually bury Under Armor.

By the way, Under Armor's shoes are horrible and getting little traction in stores; if Nike wants to buy UA they can do it after the shoe failure materializes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114648-apollo-group-s-strong-earnings-are-misleading?source=feed#comment-363074 363074
The government's not even participating in the qui tam suit; there's probably not much merit to that one either.]]> Thu, 22 Jan 2009 11:34:08 -0500
The government's not even participating in the qui tam suit; there's probably not much merit to that one either.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114648-apollo-group-s-strong-earnings-are-misleading?source=feed#comment-355431 355431
If the company was really manipulating numbers in a material way shouldn't there be a corresponding increase in the company's accounts receivable and then bad debt expense? Bad debt expense has only risen 80bps as a percent of revenue over the last 4 years, and has actually declined from 4.1% to 3.3% in the last 3 years. Accounts receivable have been relatively steady as well.

Also, were you aware that the cohort default rates are measured over 2 year periods in arrears? It seems like it would be difficult to manipulate that type of number.

Apollo is the largest university in the world and by far receives the most Title IV loan funding of any other education provider. They have had a policy of returning gov't money to the gov't in the case of dropouts for several years. Any movement of Title IV money is highly scrutinized by the DOE, I'm not sure that they would have just glossed over this in the many comprehensive reviews that have been done on the company in the past.

Last, the title of your report on Citron yesterday was just too sensationalistic for my tastes: "Citron Releases the Document that The Apollo Group (NASDAQ:APOL) Does Not Want You or the US Government to See." What was new in your report that the government is not aware of? Do you think they're not aware of a court case that was filed? Do you think they're not aware of the qui tam lawsuit that has been there forever? Do you think they're not aware that they themselves have APOL on month to month certification for Title IV?

The only thing your report does is highlight a new regulatory disclosure in a 10-Q that was brought on by students...not by the DOE, not by the SEC, not by the DOJ, but by 3 students.

Oh, and don't let me forget how ridiculous it is to assume that the company just had a one time bump in earnings due to price increases. First of all, this is the second quarter in which the company has experienced some tailwinds from price increases, and second of all enrollments jumped y/y as well. If pricing had stayed the same the company would have seen positive earnings results just from the higher enrollment, which you completely failed to mention.]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 10:19:22 -0500
If the company was really manipulating numbers in a material way shouldn't there be a corresponding increase in the company's accounts receivable and then bad debt expense? Bad debt expense has only risen 80bps as a percent of revenue over the last 4 years, and has actually declined from 4.1% to 3.3% in the last 3 years. Accounts receivable have been relatively steady as well.

Also, were you aware that the cohort default rates are measured over 2 year periods in arrears? It seems like it would be difficult to manipulate that type of number.

Apollo is the largest university in the world and by far receives the most Title IV loan funding of any other education provider. They have had a policy of returning gov't money to the gov't in the case of dropouts for several years. Any movement of Title IV money is highly scrutinized by the DOE, I'm not sure that they would have just glossed over this in the many comprehensive reviews that have been done on the company in the past.

Last, the title of your report on Citron yesterday was just too sensationalistic for my tastes: "Citron Releases the Document that The Apollo Group (NASDAQ:APOL) Does Not Want You or the US Government to See." What was new in your report that the government is not aware of? Do you think they're not aware of a court case that was filed? Do you think they're not aware of the qui tam lawsuit that has been there forever? Do you think they're not aware that they themselves have APOL on month to month certification for Title IV?

The only thing your report does is highlight a new regulatory disclosure in a 10-Q that was brought on by students...not by the DOE, not by the SEC, not by the DOJ, but by 3 students.

Oh, and don't let me forget how ridiculous it is to assume that the company just had a one time bump in earnings due to price increases. First of all, this is the second quarter in which the company has experienced some tailwinds from price increases, and second of all enrollments jumped y/y as well. If pricing had stayed the same the company would have seen positive earnings results just from the higher enrollment, which you completely failed to mention.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82260-fast-food-looks-for-growth?source=feed#comment-192086 192086
It's much more productive to analyze whether fast food is dead by looking at the comps. McDonald's registered negative monthly y/y comps in the US for the first time in 5 years back in I think either December or January and weather was the blame. Comps from there on out have exceeded analyst expectations every single time. This is ignoring international comps which are growing in high single digits...and the company gets 65% of revenue from outside the US!

If investors want to keep trading this stock based on the perceived "health" of McD's products, or on U.S. comps or other anecdotal evidence then more power to them.]]> Tue, 24 Jun 2008 16:58:57 -0400
It's much more productive to analyze whether fast food is dead by looking at the comps. McDonald's registered negative monthly y/y comps in the US for the first time in 5 years back in I think either December or January and weather was the blame. Comps from there on out have exceeded analyst expectations every single time. This is ignoring international comps which are growing in high single digits...and the company gets 65% of revenue from outside the US!

If investors want to keep trading this stock based on the perceived "health" of McD's products, or on U.S. comps or other anecdotal evidence then more power to them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76839-the-importance-of-stock-picking-illustrated-in-oil?source=feed#comment-166388 166388 Mon, 12 May 2008 14:27:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68032-spitzer-self-destruction?source=feed#comment-125248 125248 Tue, 11 Mar 2008 15:38:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/60920-lampert-s-move-is-all-about-brands?source=feed#comment-112633 112633 Thu, 24 Jan 2008 12:17:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/52856-duly-listed-chinese-equities-top-list-of-world-s-biggest-companies?source=feed#comment-101007 101007 Mon, 05 Nov 2007 14:51:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/52856-duly-listed-chinese-equities-top-list-of-world-s-biggest-companies?source=feed#comment-101006 101006 Mon, 05 Nov 2007 14:51:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/52211-ldk-solar-serves-notice-brings-top-firms-to-the-fight?source=feed#comment-100541 100541
I'm not advocating that LDK go out and hire some washed up hack of a lawyer to represent them, I'm simply suggesting that if there is nothing to worry about, any corporate law firm would be able to get them through this. A well known, but not top tier, law firm would put their best people on this and put forth an incredible effort because of the good publicity it would bring their firm.

]]> Thu, 01 Nov 2007 11:06:17 -0400
I'm not advocating that LDK go out and hire some washed up hack of a lawyer to represent them, I'm simply suggesting that if there is nothing to worry about, any corporate law firm would be able to get them through this. A well known, but not top tier, law firm would put their best people on this and put forth an incredible effort because of the good publicity it would bring their firm.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/52211-ldk-solar-serves-notice-brings-top-firms-to-the-fight?source=feed#comment-100440 100440
If the company is supremely confident in their position and the claims are baseless, why spend tons of money to clear the air when you can get a run of the mill law firm with a good track record to clear the air instead?

I'm not going to comment on whether I believe LDK has done anything wrong or not; but the assumption that hiring top tier law firms to deal with the issues is a sign that the company has done nothing wrong goes against all conventional wisdom.]]> Wed, 31 Oct 2007 13:28:01 -0400
If the company is supremely confident in their position and the claims are baseless, why spend tons of money to clear the air when you can get a run of the mill law firm with a good track record to clear the air instead?

I'm not going to comment on whether I believe LDK has done anything wrong or not; but the assumption that hiring top tier law firms to deal with the issues is a sign that the company has done nothing wrong goes against all conventional wisdom.]]>