Kunst

Time for the U.S. Economy to Reindustrialize

You don't create manufacturing out of nothing. As long as American workers are overpriced and undereducated, it isn't going to happen.

Why You Shouldn't Hold Leveraged ETFs Long-Term

You're missing the point. I don't hold them. Buy (maybe) and sell the same day. The challenge is which one to buy.


On Nov 02 12:53 PM Heythere wrote:

> This has been discussed frequently the last 6 months, if you don't
> get it, you shouldn't be investing in non-stock/bonds ETFs.
>
> WDavid, there are similar risks w/ -1x ETFs; however, they are relatively
> small compared to the +/- 2/3x funds.
>
> Kunst, it depends on when you are holding them. Had you been holding
> FAS (3x long) the last 11 months, you would be down 56%, whereas
> the index is up 17%. If you started your position in the end of
> June and sold in the end of September, you would have been up 78%,
> whereas the index was up 24%. Do you notice the wide disparity in
> its performance? Anyone can get great performance and claim that
> these funds are great over the long-term, but the truth is, you need
> to be able to accurately predict both the market trend and the volatility.
> Congrats for doing well, but this will not be consistent.

Why You Shouldn't Hold Leveraged ETFs Long-Term

There are warnings all over them, starting with the prospectus. You actually have to sign (online, at Fidelity) a statement saying you know how dangerous they are in order to trade them, and a warning is displayed every time you buy one of them.

How many smokers don't know that cigarettes are dangerous?


On Nov 01 03:40 PM Brian O'Flanagan wrote:

> Actually, I think somebody should post one of these articles every
> day until the masses finally get it. It is shocking to me how many
> people still defend these funds and think it is appropriate to own
> them long-term. It's almost like smoking, some people refuse to
> believe or care about the health risks. And it's time for warning
> labels on these toxic ETFs lest the ill informed make the mistake
> of owning them. For those that own them anyway, as for smokers,
> you'll get what you deserve.

Why You Shouldn't Hold Leveraged ETFs Long-Term

Duh! I'm up 45% since April trading FAS and FAZ. I never hold them overnight.

Real Estate Has Hit Bottom? Not Even Close

First ya gotta care.


On Aug 14 09:58 AM Miamah Boy wrote:

> Do you not have spell check???
> Consider with an s not a c!!!!

Insiders Continue to Sell, Sell, Sell

Give up, Think, it's a lost cause. They don't know, and more important, they don't care.


On Aug 14 07:11 AM Think wrote:
> on a more serious note...when did everyone decide to start typing "an" instead of "a" in every instance? "An" should only be used before words that begin with a vowel sounding first syllable such as "an apple" or "an hour (here the 'h' is silent giving a vowel sounding syllable)," whereas "a" should be used before consonant sounding syllables such as "a horse" or "A GRAPHIC." Not trying to be an ass I just see it all the time and it bugs the hell out of me.

July's Budget Deficit: All Benefits, No Costs

Obama is taking a lot of flack over the deficits and debt. Let's keep in mind that this problem has been under construction a lot longer than the last six months. Bush II was a blow-off on the bubble, and for no good reason, since most of his terms had a "strong" economy, one that could have afforded higher tax rates for a rainy day. The fact that he turned out to be a bigger spendthrift than the Democrats is the cherry on top.

But really this problem has been brewing for decades, with the active participation of both parties. Ultimately the responsibility lies with the American people. We are the ones who re-elect politicians who tell us we can have it all and not pay for it all. We're giving democracy a bad name.

Some Sobering Economic News

Too late. Bush is already out of office.


On Aug 13 05:04 PM whidbey wrote:

> What are the next steps?
> The impeachment of a failed president should be the next step.

Zillow's Prediction for 'Underwater' Homeowners

Your house will sell. Just not at the price you want.

The Truth About Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy (Part II)

The US used to be the world's largest exporter of oil. Don't you wish we had that oil now? When things get difficult enough, we'll be glad we didn't suck all the oil out of Alaska and the continental shelf.

America's Ever-Shifting Debt 'Ceiling'

Federal government revenues are down 18% this year. Unemployment and similar costs are up. So if we stop borrowing more money, we need to raise taxes 20+% or cut federal spending 20+%, or some combination. What's your poison?

In Search of an American Job

All those products were made by people overseas who are willing to work for far less money than John is. What's your solution?

Should John (i.e., millions of Americans over the course of decades) have refused to buy foreign products, paying more for American equivalents? Should we have put tariffs on those products to raise them to a price level America can compete with? Is there some way to make people in other countries pay more for American products?

It's easy to point out a problem. It's harder to point to a practical solution.

Unemployment: Keeping It Honest

The national debt was $1T when Reagan took office, $4T when Bush I left it. Those were greatest generation folks, right? Under boomer Clinton, it rose another $1T. Whether you can really attribute Bush II ($5T to $11T) to the boomer generation is open to question. I'll bet he lost within that population segment, both times. Federal deficits have been virtually continuous since the 1950s.


On Aug 08 08:16 PM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

> The government is still adjusting employment, unemployment, wages,
> etc. for the past twenty years and earlier. They are fun to trade,
> for some, but worthless for investors if there are any today.
>
> What the hey computer trading doesn't care about facts, productivity,
> innovation, etc. How 21st Century and the "Greatest Generation"
> who gave us the goodies we have today. We will pass on our debt.

How You Can Profit from the Obama Economy

Maybe we should have saved a bit of that wonderfulness during the 2003-2007 "boom". A 1% or 2% tax surcharge would have slowed things down a bit while putting money in the bank for a rainy day. Keep in mind that Bush inherited a long-term surplus and passed on a devastating structural deficit, in the process doubling the national debt in two terms. Of course, his father and Reagan quadrupled it in 12 years, so he's actually weakened the tradition.

Runaway Healthcare Costs - Which Industries Are Most Affected

The private health insurance system is at least as much responsible for rising costs as Medicare/Medicaid. The average insured person has no idea what his care costs. I asked my doctor what something cost, and he couldn't even attempt to tell me. We pay for our medical care, but its in insurance premiums that, once paid, are a sunk cost. The actual expenses are nearly free (e.g., a $10 or $20 co-pay). There is no incentive for the insured person to consider, and possibly hold down, costs. Yes, overuse will raise his premiums, but that's next year, and besides, it's going to happen anyway because everyone else is in the same situation. A classic tragedy of the commons. Only if the average consumer has some personal responsibility for containing costs can the system costs be controlled.


On Aug 05 04:28 PM GeminiAtlas wrote:

> The current healthcare system is broken not because it is too capitalist but it is too socialist (48% is Medicare/Medicaid payments). It already has a public provided competitor (i.e. Medicare). Which is driving the costs? Is it increased demand from medicare/medicaid patients who don't bear the costs directly and thus have no incentive to spend wisely?