Kunst's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/119091/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/173390-time-for-the-u-s-economy-to-reindustrialize?source=feed#comment-761020 761020 Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:01:05 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170189-why-you-shouldn-t-hold-leveraged-etfs-long-term?source=feed#comment-758112 758112

On Nov 02 12:53 PM Heythere wrote:

> This has been discussed frequently the last 6 months, if you don't
> get it, you shouldn't be investing in non-stock/bonds ETFs.
>
> WDavid, there are similar risks w/ -1x ETFs; however, they are relatively
> small compared to the +/- 2/3x funds.
>
> Kunst, it depends on when you are holding them. Had you been holding
> FAS (3x long) the last 11 months, you would be down 56%, whereas
> the index is up 17%. If you started your position in the end of
> June and sold in the end of September, you would have been up 78%,
> whereas the index was up 24%. Do you notice the wide disparity in
> its performance? Anyone can get great performance and claim that
> these funds are great over the long-term, but the truth is, you need
> to be able to accurately predict both the market trend and the volatility.
> Congrats for doing well, but this will not be consistent.]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:36:22 -0500

On Nov 02 12:53 PM Heythere wrote:

> This has been discussed frequently the last 6 months, if you don't
> get it, you shouldn't be investing in non-stock/bonds ETFs.
>
> WDavid, there are similar risks w/ -1x ETFs; however, they are relatively
> small compared to the +/- 2/3x funds.
>
> Kunst, it depends on when you are holding them. Had you been holding
> FAS (3x long) the last 11 months, you would be down 56%, whereas
> the index is up 17%. If you started your position in the end of
> June and sold in the end of September, you would have been up 78%,
> whereas the index was up 24%. Do you notice the wide disparity in
> its performance? Anyone can get great performance and claim that
> these funds are great over the long-term, but the truth is, you need
> to be able to accurately predict both the market trend and the volatility.
> Congrats for doing well, but this will not be consistent.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170189-why-you-shouldn-t-hold-leveraged-etfs-long-term?source=feed#comment-739639 739639
How many smokers don't know that cigarettes are dangerous?


On Nov 01 03:40 PM Brian O'Flanagan wrote:

> Actually, I think somebody should post one of these articles every
> day until the masses finally get it. It is shocking to me how many
> people still defend these funds and think it is appropriate to own
> them long-term. It's almost like smoking, some people refuse to
> believe or care about the health risks. And it's time for warning
> labels on these toxic ETFs lest the ill informed make the mistake
> of owning them. For those that own them anyway, as for smokers,
> you'll get what you deserve.]]> Sun, 01 Nov 2009 18:28:28 -0500
How many smokers don't know that cigarettes are dangerous?


On Nov 01 03:40 PM Brian O'Flanagan wrote:

> Actually, I think somebody should post one of these articles every
> day until the masses finally get it. It is shocking to me how many
> people still defend these funds and think it is appropriate to own
> them long-term. It's almost like smoking, some people refuse to
> believe or care about the health risks. And it's time for warning
> labels on these toxic ETFs lest the ill informed make the mistake
> of owning them. For those that own them anyway, as for smokers,
> you'll get what you deserve.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170189-why-you-shouldn-t-hold-leveraged-etfs-long-term?source=feed#comment-738845 738845 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 00:42:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/156149-real-estate-has-hit-bottom-not-even-close?source=feed#comment-630760 630760

On Aug 14 09:58 AM Miamah Boy wrote:

> Do you not have spell check???
> Consider with an s not a c!!!!]]> Sat, 15 Aug 2009 02:05:47 -0400

On Aug 14 09:58 AM Miamah Boy wrote:

> Do you not have spell check???
> Consider with an s not a c!!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156048-insiders-continue-to-sell-sell-sell?source=feed#comment-630759 630759

On Aug 14 07:11 AM Think wrote:
> on a more serious note...when did everyone decide to start typing "an" instead of "a" in every instance? "An" should only be used before words that begin with a vowel sounding first syllable such as "an apple" or "an hour (here the 'h' is silent giving a vowel sounding syllable)," whereas "a" should be used before consonant sounding syllables such as "a horse" or "A GRAPHIC." Not trying to be an ass I just see it all the time and it bugs the hell out of me.]]> Sat, 15 Aug 2009 02:03:48 -0400

On Aug 14 07:11 AM Think wrote:
> on a more serious note...when did everyone decide to start typing "an" instead of "a" in every instance? "An" should only be used before words that begin with a vowel sounding first syllable such as "an apple" or "an hour (here the 'h' is silent giving a vowel sounding syllable)," whereas "a" should be used before consonant sounding syllables such as "a horse" or "A GRAPHIC." Not trying to be an ass I just see it all the time and it bugs the hell out of me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155903-july-s-budget-deficit-all-benefits-no-costs?source=feed#comment-630756 630756
But really this problem has been brewing for decades, with the active participation of both parties. Ultimately the responsibility lies with the American people. We are the ones who re-elect politicians who tell us we can have it all and not pay for it all. We're giving democracy a bad name. ]]> Sat, 15 Aug 2009 02:00:31 -0400
But really this problem has been brewing for decades, with the active participation of both parties. Ultimately the responsibility lies with the American people. We are the ones who re-elect politicians who tell us we can have it all and not pay for it all. We're giving democracy a bad name. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156014-some-sobering-economic-news?source=feed#comment-630754 630754

On Aug 13 05:04 PM whidbey wrote:

> What are the next steps?
> The impeachment of a failed president should be the next step. ]]> Sat, 15 Aug 2009 01:56:46 -0400

On Aug 13 05:04 PM whidbey wrote:

> What are the next steps?
> The impeachment of a failed president should be the next step. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155605-zillow-s-prediction-for-underwater-homeowners?source=feed#comment-627700 627700 Thu, 13 Aug 2009 01:41:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154915-the-truth-about-fossil-fuels-and-renewable-energy-part-ii?source=feed#comment-622779 622779 Mon, 10 Aug 2009 00:38:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154909-america-s-ever-shifting-debt-ceiling?source=feed#comment-622576 622576 Sun, 09 Aug 2009 20:57:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154902-in-search-of-an-american-job?source=feed#comment-622574 622574
Should John (i.e., millions of Americans over the course of decades) have refused to buy foreign products, paying more for American equivalents? Should we have put tariffs on those products to raise them to a price level America can compete with? Is there some way to make people in other countries pay more for American products?

It's easy to point out a problem. It's harder to point to a practical solution.]]> Sun, 09 Aug 2009 20:53:39 -0400
Should John (i.e., millions of Americans over the course of decades) have refused to buy foreign products, paying more for American equivalents? Should we have put tariffs on those products to raise them to a price level America can compete with? Is there some way to make people in other countries pay more for American products?

It's easy to point out a problem. It's harder to point to a practical solution.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154773-unemployment-keeping-it-honest?source=feed#comment-622363 622363

On Aug 08 08:16 PM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

> The government is still adjusting employment, unemployment, wages,
> etc. for the past twenty years and earlier. They are fun to trade,
> for some, but worthless for investors if there are any today.
>
> What the hey computer trading doesn't care about facts, productivity,
> innovation, etc. How 21st Century and the "Greatest Generation"
> who gave us the goodies we have today. We will pass on our debt.]]> Sun, 09 Aug 2009 17:26:31 -0400

On Aug 08 08:16 PM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

> The government is still adjusting employment, unemployment, wages,
> etc. for the past twenty years and earlier. They are fun to trade,
> for some, but worthless for investors if there are any today.
>
> What the hey computer trading doesn't care about facts, productivity,
> innovation, etc. How 21st Century and the "Greatest Generation"
> who gave us the goodies we have today. We will pass on our debt.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154731-how-you-can-profit-from-the-obama-economy?source=feed#comment-622348 622348 Sun, 09 Aug 2009 17:07:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153811-runaway-healthcare-costs-which-industries-are-most-affected?source=feed#comment-621510 621510

On Aug 05 04:28 PM GeminiAtlas wrote:

> The current healthcare system is broken not because it is too capitalist but it is too socialist (48% is Medicare/Medicaid payments). It already has a public provided competitor (i.e. Medicare). Which is driving the costs? Is it increased demand from medicare/medicaid patients who don't bear the costs directly and thus have no incentive to spend wisely? ]]> Sat, 08 Aug 2009 22:18:20 -0400

On Aug 05 04:28 PM GeminiAtlas wrote:

> The current healthcare system is broken not because it is too capitalist but it is too socialist (48% is Medicare/Medicaid payments). It already has a public provided competitor (i.e. Medicare). Which is driving the costs? Is it increased demand from medicare/medicaid patients who don't bear the costs directly and thus have no incentive to spend wisely? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153719-manufacturing-a-sustainable-economic-recovery?source=feed#comment-621508 621508

On Aug 05 02:12 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> MarvinMBA: Sadly I doubt they will be spending it on goods. More
> likely they will do what China is starting to do, go all over the
> world and buy up factors of production like raw materials companies.
> If they go shopping in the US they would probably like to buy up
> the likes of IBM etc. Talk about a hollowing out of America if they
> buy out our tech sector. With $2 trillion they can. The deficit is
> our #1 long term national security concern.]]> Sat, 08 Aug 2009 22:11:02 -0400

On Aug 05 02:12 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> MarvinMBA: Sadly I doubt they will be spending it on goods. More
> likely they will do what China is starting to do, go all over the
> world and buy up factors of production like raw materials companies.
> If they go shopping in the US they would probably like to buy up
> the likes of IBM etc. Talk about a hollowing out of America if they
> buy out our tech sector. With $2 trillion they can. The deficit is
> our #1 long term national security concern.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149509-ge-results-validate-theory-severe-economic-contraction?source=feed#comment-593298 593298
How about a link to that 2007 prediction?]]> Sat, 18 Jul 2009 20:39:32 -0400
How about a link to that 2007 prediction?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147895-obama-s-economic-failure?source=feed#comment-583175 583175 Sat, 11 Jul 2009 02:20:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144804-july-will-be-a-turning-point-for-faz?source=feed#comment-560523 560523
Actually, exponential decay is increased by higher volatility. If you remember your high school algebra,

(1 + x) (1 - x) = 1 - x^2

A 10% rise followed (or preceded) by a 10% decline, leaves you down 1%. At 20%, you are down 4%. By the time you compound even a 5-10% daily rise/fall, which is common, FAZ (and FAS) has nowhere to go but down.]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 11:43:46 -0400
Actually, exponential decay is increased by higher volatility. If you remember your high school algebra,

(1 + x) (1 - x) = 1 - x^2

A 10% rise followed (or preceded) by a 10% decline, leaves you down 1%. At 20%, you are down 4%. By the time you compound even a 5-10% daily rise/fall, which is common, FAZ (and FAS) has nowhere to go but down.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144714-what-s-the-opposite-of-eureka?source=feed#comment-559065 559065 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:59:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142999-the-economy-now-a-5-point-summary?source=feed#comment-546633 546633
So if you don't like the results of the election, take up guns against the government. What's to keep someone with an opinion opposite to yours from trying to overthrow the government you do like? The most basic concept of democracy is that we all accept the will of the majority even if we don't agree.]]> Mon, 15 Jun 2009 01:57:57 -0400
So if you don't like the results of the election, take up guns against the government. What's to keep someone with an opinion opposite to yours from trying to overthrow the government you do like? The most basic concept of democracy is that we all accept the will of the majority even if we don't agree.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141159-russia-china-gang-up-on-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-536547 536547
So when they buy Euros or raw materials, what happens to the dollars? They don't disappear. They go to whoever sold China the Euros or raw materials. Sooner or later, those dollars are only good here in the US. The real danger is when China and others buy huge chunks of America's productive assets. We have been trading our land and factories for toys.]]> Sun, 07 Jun 2009 23:43:51 -0400
So when they buy Euros or raw materials, what happens to the dollars? They don't disappear. They go to whoever sold China the Euros or raw materials. Sooner or later, those dollars are only good here in the US. The real danger is when China and others buy huge chunks of America's productive assets. We have been trading our land and factories for toys.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141326-we-re-due-for-a-serious-pullback?source=feed#comment-534477 534477

On Jun 05 10:35 AM YoYoMama wrote:

> If I'm "Dumb Money" (yes, I'm an AAII member), how come my portfolio
> is up over 60% from market bottoms? Isn't that beating the market?
>
>
> How's your portfolio doing? Care to share?
>
> On Jun 04 09:30 AM Jason Tillberg wrote:]]> Fri, 05 Jun 2009 23:15:12 -0400

On Jun 05 10:35 AM YoYoMama wrote:

> If I'm "Dumb Money" (yes, I'm an AAII member), how come my portfolio
> is up over 60% from market bottoms? Isn't that beating the market?
>
>
> How's your portfolio doing? Care to share?
>
> On Jun 04 09:30 AM Jason Tillberg wrote:]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139030-the-next-wave-of-foreclosures?source=feed#comment-517222 517222

On May 23 08:10 AM Mpyre... wrote:

> read your Gibbon...the empire is rotting from within which is historical
> par...this administration is simply throwing accelerant on a fire
> that started around 1964 with the Vietnam fiasco and the so-called
> Great Society Programs...big government has always been the main
> problem, and remains so.]]> Mon, 25 May 2009 20:16:10 -0400

On May 23 08:10 AM Mpyre... wrote:

> read your Gibbon...the empire is rotting from within which is historical
> par...this administration is simply throwing accelerant on a fire
> that started around 1964 with the Vietnam fiasco and the so-called
> Great Society Programs...big government has always been the main
> problem, and remains so.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139431-not-your-grandpa-s-deflation?source=feed#comment-517194 517194 Mon, 25 May 2009 19:34:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139367-california-s-crisis-omen-of-the-nation-s-future-reality?source=feed#comment-517173 517173
California has borrowed so much money via bond issues over the years, all approved by the voters, that its credit rating is now the worst in the nation. There is no good solution at this point. The rainy day fund should have been filled when times were good. Now, only draconian cuts to public services remain. And yes, that is a portent for the country as a whole.]]> Mon, 25 May 2009 19:09:12 -0400
California has borrowed so much money via bond issues over the years, all approved by the voters, that its credit rating is now the worst in the nation. There is no good solution at this point. The rainy day fund should have been filled when times were good. Now, only draconian cuts to public services remain. And yes, that is a portent for the country as a whole.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138966-is-the-u-s-dollar-headed-for-a-mighty-crash-part-i?source=feed#comment-515706 515706

On May 21 08:02 PM nmelendez wrote:

> BTW since the world has evolved to the same level as the US, where's
> other countries stealth technology? i mean China's stealth bomber/fighter.]]> Sat, 23 May 2009 19:37:27 -0400

On May 21 08:02 PM nmelendez wrote:

> BTW since the world has evolved to the same level as the US, where's
> other countries stealth technology? i mean China's stealth bomber/fighter.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134770-friday-s-volume-down-significantly?source=feed#comment-487653 487653

On May 03 12:24 PM Northstar10000 wrote:

> Cetin
> You continue to amaze. Friday volume was a disaster and no one except
> the big traders know it. Do you even know what day it was?]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 14:04:16 -0400

On May 03 12:24 PM Northstar10000 wrote:

> Cetin
> You continue to amaze. Friday volume was a disaster and no one except
> the big traders know it. Do you even know what day it was?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134841-credit-card-catastrophe-congress-can-t-help?source=feed#comment-487646 487646
The banks know their product hurts most of their customers. They don't care, because that's how they make their money. No different than the tobacco industry. Through credit cards, banks intentionally lend money to people who can't afford it. They make exorbitant profit on obscene interest rates, while many people's balances climb and climb, until they reach the breaking point and they go bankrupt. The banks don't care, because they charge such high interest that it covers the default rate.

Credit cards as an instrument of financial torture are not in the country's interest. Limit the interest rate so something reasonable, say twice the prime rate. But this will cut off many people from credit, the banks will say. Yes, it will. That's the point. Banks lend to people who can't handle it, let them get in deeper and deeper. Only the high interest rates make that possible. At 10-12%, the banks will have to limit credit to those who can actually afford and handle it. The simple fact is that most people should not have credit cards. They are poison and of no benefit to the average person. At best, they make people feel better temporarily (like heroin) at the cost of long-term destruction.

While we're at it, let's legislate an automatic write-off of 50% of credit card debt for anyone who goes bankrupt. Again, that will make the banks lend more responsibly, i.e., to people who are good credit risks.]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 13:58:00 -0400
The banks know their product hurts most of their customers. They don't care, because that's how they make their money. No different than the tobacco industry. Through credit cards, banks intentionally lend money to people who can't afford it. They make exorbitant profit on obscene interest rates, while many people's balances climb and climb, until they reach the breaking point and they go bankrupt. The banks don't care, because they charge such high interest that it covers the default rate.

Credit cards as an instrument of financial torture are not in the country's interest. Limit the interest rate so something reasonable, say twice the prime rate. But this will cut off many people from credit, the banks will say. Yes, it will. That's the point. Banks lend to people who can't handle it, let them get in deeper and deeper. Only the high interest rates make that possible. At 10-12%, the banks will have to limit credit to those who can actually afford and handle it. The simple fact is that most people should not have credit cards. They are poison and of no benefit to the average person. At best, they make people feel better temporarily (like heroin) at the cost of long-term destruction.

While we're at it, let's legislate an automatic write-off of 50% of credit card debt for anyone who goes bankrupt. Again, that will make the banks lend more responsibly, i.e., to people who are good credit risks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134860-my-oil-outlook?source=feed#comment-487634 487634

On May 03 09:12 AM The Greatest Rip Off of our Time wrote:

> The best part about oil's plunge into the $40 and $50 barrel in about
> six months?
>
> A de-facto tax cut for American motorists. Each $1 per barrel drop
> in oil increases U.S. GDP by $100 billion per year and every 1 cent
> decline in gasoline increases U.S. consumer disposable income by
> $600 million per year.
> The last 20 years have been characterized by rising U.S. oil consumption,
> but now the U.S. Energy Information Agency. incorporating the most-recent
> changes in U.S. consumer behavior, says there will be no appreciable
> growth in U.S. oil consumption between now and 2030, with biofuels
> accounting for all of the growth in liquid fuels.]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 13:45:20 -0400

On May 03 09:12 AM The Greatest Rip Off of our Time wrote:

> The best part about oil's plunge into the $40 and $50 barrel in about
> six months?
>
> A de-facto tax cut for American motorists. Each $1 per barrel drop
> in oil increases U.S. GDP by $100 billion per year and every 1 cent
> decline in gasoline increases U.S. consumer disposable income by
> $600 million per year.
> The last 20 years have been characterized by rising U.S. oil consumption,
> but now the U.S. Energy Information Agency. incorporating the most-recent
> changes in U.S. consumer behavior, says there will be no appreciable
> growth in U.S. oil consumption between now and 2030, with biofuels
> accounting for all of the growth in liquid fuels.]]>