Ellen

Julian Robertson on Debt, Sudden Stops and More

This was excellent. Thanks for sharing. I have utmost respect for Julian Robertson. Who knows some good vehicles, or the easiest way, for owning Norwegian Krone?

The Congressional Bailout of Madoff's Investors

Hi Matthew,

I appreciate your research and article pointing this out to you, and my first reaction was outrage, but then I looked more closely and now I see the SIPC's coverage, which is limited, and covers only certain investors who directly invested in Madoff, I don't see this as a bad thing.

There's FDIC insurance to protect our bank accounts, and there's SIPC insurance, which is similarly limited in amount, to protect us if the brokerage firms we use go belly up. Similarly, there's SIPC protection to cover brokerage accounts, up to a limit.

Madoff investors who invested through Hedge Funds or Feeder Funds will not get SIPC protection.

Remember that the SEC let down Madoff investors horribly. I think it's appropriate to let Madoff's direct investors apply for the limited recovery under SIPC that anyone who had a brokerage account covered by SIPC anywhere else would have.

Also, just like the FDIC, which has bank members pay in hefty fees to share in the insurance coverage, the SIPC works the same way too, so this is not entirely coming out of taxpayer money.

Investor confidence - in banks and brokerage firms - is key, or we'll all be worse off. In the great Depression, one of the biggest problems was that when banks failed, depositors lost all their money. One of the reasons our economic system didn't fail completely last fall was that we have things like the FDIC in place. That goes for SIPC too. If everyone had become terrified of the solvency of their brokerage firm and had yanked their money out all at once, just like with their bank accounts, the country - and we as taxpayers - would have suffered worse.

One of the reasons the dollar is staying strong (for now anyway) is that the safeguards and policies of the US Govt make the USA look better to foreign investors than their own currencies. We are fortunate as a country that we can have some safeguards such as SIPC and FDIC.

Fed Says Buy Gold: The Start of a Bullish Pattern

Can you comment on what Jim Rogers said in a Bloomberg interview the other day, that gold will fall short term because the IMF is selling its gold?

Four New Currency ETFs from Rydex

What ever happened to the Singapore Dollar ETN. Did it ever come out?

Book Review: The Decline and Fall of the British Empire, 1781-1997

If you like this book, I also highly recommend Niall Ferguson's "The Ascent of Money". A brilliant and excellent historical explanation of what happened this year.
Ferguson is a professor of Finance AND history at Harvard. Also a Hoover Fellow and Oxford.
This book will be turned into a PBS special airing in January.
Many very good Ferguson interviews are on YouTube. Here is a 45 minute interview on Bloomberg that is well worth listening to:
www.youtube.com/watch?...

Dollar Rally Could be Short Lived

Chris,
I was hoping for more from you....
I was reading a Morgan Stanley report last night and they say they underestimated a number of global factors and are not even more bullish on the dollar.
As Fiat currencies go, maybe the stronger US Dollar is the correct play.
Longer term, I'd think more about adding to gold (physical not certificated) positions.
I was listening to Mort Zuckerman's Council on Foreign Relations panel with Nouriel Roubini et al. and even though deflation is the force right now, if this crisis is handled by monetization, as it looks as if it is right now at least, the inflation down the road is going to be awful.
Roubini thinks this won't happen and I put a lot of store in what he says, but I don't see how it's avoidable.
Ellen

ETF Update: What a Difference a Week Makes

Gosh, the way commodities are declining, I think the chance of Russia (and Brazil for that matter) collapsing are greater than the upside possibilities...just my 2 cents (which may not be worth 2 cents for long : )

Deflation, Inflation, Rinse and Repeat

from your neighbor over here in Rancho Santa Fe...

24 months is an eon in this highly volatile market. I'm not sure it makes sense to do any positioning for inflation that far off, especially when the only certainty is that there will be many intervening factors between now and then.

But I would like to know how you came up with 24 months and what the indicator(s) will be that will alert you to the change in direction from disinflation or deflation to re-inflation?

Thanks.

How to Construct a Deflation Proof Portfolio

Hi Simit,

Thanks for your informative, well-reasoned postings.

What about adding a percentage of precious metals to this portfolio (owned in allocated or physical ownership, not certificated)?

Thanks, Ellen

How Risk Aversion Is Evolving

Why not a blend of gold and other precious metals and a diversification of currencies?

Wells Fargo: A Growth Stock During the Great Depression?

I heard that Wells Fargo is now arbitrarily calling in their outstanding Home Equity Loans and demanding immediate repayment in full. I also heard that B of A is canceling their credit cards for anyone with under a 750 credit rating.

Dollar Rally Could be Short Lived

I was listening to several of the Bloomberg on the Economy with Tom Keane podcasts today (they're excellent) and more than on economist said that the debt has been passed from private to public hands, but it will not be inflationary longterm because it's a shift, more than an increase.
The $64,000 question these days seems to be whether deflation or stagflation relative to the dollar and gold. The economists and smartest minds seem to disagree. Who is right!?!

8 Advantages of the Gone Fishin' Portfolio

So, what are you selecting as your asset allocation for the next year?
Thanks for your thoughts.

Things That Matter More Than the GDP

so, WHAT cash - USD, Canadian Loonie, Swiss Franc, other, a mixture? And in what form - certs of deposit? short, long? bonds?

On Recent Financial Stories

so what do you do with your assets?