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  • Red Hat: Application Software Company Perfect Example Of Cloud Bubble [View article]
    In terms of operational cash flow corrections
    1. Did you add deferred revenues?
    2. Did you add share based compensation? (under the assumption that Red Hat is overvalued and options with a high strike price will be worth zero)
    3. Why does Capex go up again in 2016?
    Apr 9 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will ParkerVision Be Bought By A Tech Giant? [View article]
    Many people see the weak patent position of Google regarding Android as the main reason why the high price per Nortel patent was paid. Google ended up buying Motorola when they lost the battle for the Nortel patents. You claim to be an expert on patents, i find it interesting that the price tag you derive for PRKR portfolio depends on this special situation. We both know that a special situation is never a good starting point for deriving an objective price point which can applied to other patent portfolios.

    Except for the comparison with the Nortel/Rockstar, you never motivated financially why the PRKR patent portfolio should be worth more than 170m+. LIke bonkthegrups explained (using the ARM licensing model as an example), even when PRKR wins the lawsuit against Qualcom, the derived profits for PRKR will only be about $50m. So if the best PRKR patents are worth $50m in the best case scenario, why would another company be willing to pay 170m+ for the full patent portfolio?

    Given the high risk profile of such an investment the buyer would demand a irr north of 25% (comparable to what venture capitalists want) which implies that the PRKR portfolio should generate more than $350+ m in profits (after tax).

    That is the good thing about a valuation process: if you agree on the valuation assumptions, you can agree on what something is worth. Typically when a buyer and seller agree on the assumptions on how to value an asset, they agree on a price.

    Yes I agree: we can disagree on which transactions should be used for a peer comparison, but it is more difficult to disagree on the assumptions used to calculate future cashflows.

    So i would like to challenge you to come with a few more PRKR patents that cover such strong technological innovations which will be used in broad range of applications that it can justify a current valuation north of $170m based on the discounted cashflow model.
    Oct 21 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will ParkerVision Be Bought By A Tech Giant? [View article]
    You make a good point there... If you have two potential buyers which want to buy the same house, the price can go up dramatically... it says something about the price, but nothing about the value... you mix up price and value....

    If you have multiple houses sold in the same neighbourhood for comparable prices, you can assume that you can use these price points for a future transaction

    Given that the Intel - IDCC transaction was done at much lower price per patent (220k per patent) it is quite unlikely you can use the data from a transaction where two buyers wanted to buy the same house for estimating what price you will get for your house.
    Oct 19 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will ParkerVision Be Bought By A Tech Giant? [View article]
    I wonder why you have not even tried to value the patents. The most recent transaction that is comparable is the Interdigital - Intel transaction.

    http://reut.rs/S0EBB4

    1700 IDCC patents = $375m <> 200 PRKR patents <> $40m....

    which is not even close to your suggested 170m+ valuation....

    The PRKR portfolio does not generate any royalties and cost $15m+ a year to maintain it ... So i find it really hard to believe that the ParkerVision portfolio would be worth more than the IDCC patent portfolio.
    Oct 19 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3SBio (SSRX) says it received a going-private proposal from its Chairman and CEO for $15/share, a 29% premium to yesterday's closing price. The acquisition would be financed through a combination of debt and equity capital, with a financial institution having expressed interest in financing the deal. Shares +20.7% premarket. [View news story]
    Could anyone tell me why you still buy SSRX for 13.3 while there is a $15 offer on the table?
    Sep 13 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Highs For U.S. Trade [View article]
    What are the growth rates if you correct for oil import and oil products export?
    Feb 11 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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