john haskell

Mortgage Lenders Can't Escape Morgenson's Wrath

Being yelled at by Gretchen Morgensen is increasingly like being yelled at by one of the vagrants down at Union Square. Who cares.

Sugar: Get in While It's Still Cheap

Investing in sugar stocks requires a strong stomach. If you overindulge you may experience at first a sense of heightened energy, followed by lethargy and indigestion.

Jim Rogers' Picks and Pans - Barron's Interview

he woofed and woofed at great length about "I'm going to move to China, just you watch, I'm going to move to China," then moved to Singapore, "so my daughter could learn the language" in a city where they have to have a "Speak Mandarin Campaign" to get people to speak Mandarin instead of Hokkienese and English is one of the official languages. Oh, and did I mention Russia is going to break up into a congerie of warring tribes? Whatever.

When the Rest of the World Stops Hoarding US Dollars

this is a very timely article for say 2002. There is a risk of a falling dollar dampening foreign demand for USD denominated assets? You don't say!

Citi's Deal: Unclogging of the System

Leveraged loans have been trading since the beginning of the crunch in July. They just weren't trading at prices that banks liked, which is a different thing entirely.

As for "finding a buyer," it's always possible to find a buyer if you finance him. In fact that's how the homebuilding industry found buyers for the past 5 years. That worked well, so why not repeat the experience with leveraged loans?

A Tale of Two Coasts

NY is not a scam; it is just behind the rest of the country. Bear Stearns et al are helping the city to catch up, though.

Naked Shorting Comes Full Circle

thanks for giving Bear Stearns management more cover. Yes, it was the naked shorts. Management did nothing wrong. BSC going bankrupt was just like Hurricane Katrina, totally unforeseeable, the victims innocent of responsibility in this natural disaster.

Comparing Clinton and Bush on Income Taxes

we also need to allocate tax income to fix our educational system so that our children don't grow up to talk about "wrote offs" and "preks" as User 4978 does.

Dick Bove Says Banking Is Sound - Time to Buy Financials?

these are not the only differences between now and 1990:
Then the President was George HW Bush, now George W Bush

In 1990 Paula Abdul was a top rated pop star, now she evaluates pop stars

Michael Milken wore a toupee, now he doesn't.

But the point is not that 2008 and 1990 are different. The point is to establish what losses banks will suffer in a system-wide flight from risk and refusal to lend (which we didn't have in 1990!) Commodities were in deflation in 1990, fine, but houses are in deflation now and houses are a much bigger balance sheet item for this economy than commodities. This essay needs to be rewritten.

Blame Realtors, Brokers and Bankers - Not Greenspan

this is pathetic. Did realtors start being greedy in 2002? Of course not. Did securitization start in '02? Of course not. Did investment bankers shift from long term thinking to short term thinking in '02? No again. But the housing bubble started in '02 and continued through until '05. Why? Because 02-05 was the period when the Fed had ridiculously low interest rates, thanks to "Uncle Al the Gambler's Pal."

Now you can blame other people for getting drunk, but it was Al who spiked the punch. And now that interest rates are non-zero, the housing bubble is over. QED.

Freefall Fed Policies?

this York piece is so error-riddled and ill thought out that he should just be removed from the Seeking Alpha website. Anyone who thinks the Federal government is running a $9 trillion deficit has no business attempting to comment on market trends.

JPM, Citadel Tag Teaming Thornburg Mortgage?

Yesterday's trivial $28 million margin call is today's $600 million margin call. They are working in a "fairly safe area of the mortgage market" like the Gaza Strip is fairly safe. Alt-A, or otherwise known as "pre-default" mortages, never existed before the current debt bubble was inflated. Now they are returning to well deserved oblivion.

Back to the future and 20% downpayments with income verification and self amortizing loans. Goodbye to TMA and their ilk who sold free puts to homedebtors.

Moscow Now Has More Billionaires Than New York

here's a secret: 13% flat tax

Oil, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Copper Hit Record Highs

which would you rather have: hundreds of millions in your pocket, or some "good PR" among American gasoline consumers who for obvious reasons (hint: 9/11) don't trust you much anyway? Keep this question in mind as you puzzle over OPEC's actions.

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

Mr Yetiv- I was not referring specifically to FICO scores, but to historical default rates, which I believe will be a poor indicator of future default rates, due to the uniquely debtor-friendly provisions of Alt A mortgages.

Also as to FICO scores (which I did not directly address earlier) you will no doubt be aware that Fair Isaac recently announced substantial changes to their scoring algorithm because of its perceived failure to predict risk of default.

"We don't think FICO scores have caused or contributed to the subprime mortgage problem," says CEO Mark N. Greene, a 12-year IBM veteran who took the helm at Fair Isaac last February as its problems were becoming apparent. Lenders that followed traditional underwriting standards, he says, "steered clear of subprime issues."

Of course, Thornburg Mortgage's entire reason for being was to help borrowers avoid "traditional underwriting standards" by lending them money that they could not demonstrate an ability to service.

And this is all before we get into the question of how a company can miss a $270 million margin call and still be a buy, which I suppose has been exhaustively examined by other posters.