john haskell's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/119505/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/72370-mortgage-lenders-can-t-escape-morgenson-s-wrath?source=feed#comment-151555 151555 Wed, 16 Apr 2008 08:49:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72355-sugar-get-in-while-it-s-still-cheap?source=feed#comment-151549 151549 Wed, 16 Apr 2008 08:41:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72092-jim-rogers-picks-and-pans-barron-s-interview?source=feed#comment-150271 150271 Mon, 14 Apr 2008 09:00:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72154-when-the-rest-of-the-world-stops-hoarding-us-dollars?source=feed#comment-150261 150261 Mon, 14 Apr 2008 08:50:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71855-citi-s-deal-unclogging-of-the-system?source=feed#comment-148880 148880
As for "finding a buyer," it's always possible to find a buyer if you finance him. In fact that's how the homebuilding industry found buyers for the past 5 years. That worked well, so why not repeat the experience with leveraged loans?]]> Fri, 11 Apr 2008 09:15:54 -0400
As for "finding a buyer," it's always possible to find a buyer if you finance him. In fact that's how the homebuilding industry found buyers for the past 5 years. That worked well, so why not repeat the experience with leveraged loans?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71958-a-tale-of-two-coasts?source=feed#comment-148876 148876 Fri, 11 Apr 2008 09:09:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71331-naked-shorting-comes-full-circle?source=feed#comment-146502 146502 Mon, 07 Apr 2008 13:48:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67787-comparing-clinton-and-bush-on-income-taxes?source=feed#comment-124622 124622 Mon, 10 Mar 2008 09:16:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67831-dick-bove-says-banking-is-sound-time-to-buy-financials?source=feed#comment-124617 124617 Then the President was George HW Bush, now George W Bush

In 1990 Paula Abdul was a top rated pop star, now she evaluates pop stars

Michael Milken wore a toupee, now he doesn't.

But the point is not that 2008 and 1990 are different. The point is to establish what losses banks will suffer in a system-wide flight from risk and refusal to lend (which we didn't have in 1990!) Commodities were in deflation in 1990, fine, but houses are in deflation now and houses are a much bigger balance sheet item for this economy than commodities. This essay needs to be rewritten.]]> Mon, 10 Mar 2008 09:05:56 -0400 Then the President was George HW Bush, now George W Bush

In 1990 Paula Abdul was a top rated pop star, now she evaluates pop stars

Michael Milken wore a toupee, now he doesn't.

But the point is not that 2008 and 1990 are different. The point is to establish what losses banks will suffer in a system-wide flight from risk and refusal to lend (which we didn't have in 1990!) Commodities were in deflation in 1990, fine, but houses are in deflation now and houses are a much bigger balance sheet item for this economy than commodities. This essay needs to be rewritten.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67785-blame-realtors-brokers-and-bankers-not-greenspan?source=feed#comment-124614 124614
Now you can blame other people for getting drunk, but it was Al who spiked the punch. And now that interest rates are non-zero, the housing bubble is over. QED. ]]> Mon, 10 Mar 2008 09:00:20 -0400
Now you can blame other people for getting drunk, but it was Al who spiked the punch. And now that interest rates are non-zero, the housing bubble is over. QED. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67716-freefall-fed-policies?source=feed#comment-124335 124335 Sun, 09 Mar 2008 15:22:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67553-jpm-citadel-tag-teaming-thornburg-mortgage?source=feed#comment-123748 123748
Back to the future and 20% downpayments with income verification and self amortizing loans. Goodbye to TMA and their ilk who sold free puts to homedebtors.]]> Fri, 07 Mar 2008 16:52:30 -0500
Back to the future and 20% downpayments with income verification and self amortizing loans. Goodbye to TMA and their ilk who sold free puts to homedebtors.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67385-moscow-now-has-more-billionaires-than-new-york?source=feed#comment-122850 122850 Thu, 06 Mar 2008 08:04:17 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67132-oil-gold-silver-platinum-and-copper-hit-record-highs?source=feed#comment-122402 122402 Wed, 05 Mar 2008 10:06:17 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67104-thornburg-s-a-huge-bargain-after-monday-s-crash?source=feed#comment-122400 122400
Also as to FICO scores (which I did not directly address earlier) you will no doubt be aware that Fair Isaac recently announced substantial changes to their scoring algorithm because of its perceived failure to predict risk of default.

"We don't think FICO scores have caused or contributed to the subprime mortgage problem," says CEO Mark N. Greene, a 12-year IBM veteran who took the helm at Fair Isaac last February as its problems were becoming apparent. Lenders that followed traditional underwriting standards, he says, "steered clear of subprime issues."

Of course, Thornburg Mortgage's entire reason for being was to help borrowers avoid "traditional underwriting standards" by lending them money that they could not demonstrate an ability to service.

And this is all before we get into the question of how a company can miss a $270 million margin call and still be a buy, which I suppose has been exhaustively examined by other posters.]]> Wed, 05 Mar 2008 10:04:15 -0500
Also as to FICO scores (which I did not directly address earlier) you will no doubt be aware that Fair Isaac recently announced substantial changes to their scoring algorithm because of its perceived failure to predict risk of default.

"We don't think FICO scores have caused or contributed to the subprime mortgage problem," says CEO Mark N. Greene, a 12-year IBM veteran who took the helm at Fair Isaac last February as its problems were becoming apparent. Lenders that followed traditional underwriting standards, he says, "steered clear of subprime issues."

Of course, Thornburg Mortgage's entire reason for being was to help borrowers avoid "traditional underwriting standards" by lending them money that they could not demonstrate an ability to service.

And this is all before we get into the question of how a company can miss a $270 million margin call and still be a buy, which I suppose has been exhaustively examined by other posters.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67255-what-s-going-on-with-bond-insurers?source=feed#comment-122391 122391
The path has already been cleared by ACA- that is, the path from AAA to bankruptcy. The rating agencies have been practicing up for this, taking AAA rated CDO's down to CCC in a single step. They won't downgrade the monolines, the monolines will just show up in BK court, blaming Ackman the whole way.

Marty Whitman is a smart investor and he will lose his entire investment. He will still be smart, but this one particular idea wasn't. It's OK- Buffett bought shares in USAir after all.]]> Wed, 05 Mar 2008 09:55:25 -0500
The path has already been cleared by ACA- that is, the path from AAA to bankruptcy. The rating agencies have been practicing up for this, taking AAA rated CDO's down to CCC in a single step. They won't downgrade the monolines, the monolines will just show up in BK court, blaming Ackman the whole way.

Marty Whitman is a smart investor and he will lose his entire investment. He will still be smart, but this one particular idea wasn't. It's OK- Buffett bought shares in USAir after all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67227-the-case-for-foreclosure-law-of-conservation-of-homes?source=feed#comment-122383 122383
The foreclosed houses certainly won't disappear. Some will find new occupants, others may be used as retail outlets for controlled substances.]]> Wed, 05 Mar 2008 09:50:19 -0500
The foreclosed houses certainly won't disappear. Some will find new occupants, others may be used as retail outlets for controlled substances.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67235-collapse-of-the-yield-curve?source=feed#comment-122382 122382 Wed, 05 Mar 2008 09:47:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67267-our-run-in-with-auction-rate-securities-and-what-it-taught-me-about-markets?source=feed#comment-122379 122379 Wed, 05 Mar 2008 09:44:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67035-citigroup-bottoming-plus-some-free-advice-for-meredith-whitney?source=feed#comment-122089 122089 Tue, 04 Mar 2008 15:37:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67104-thornburg-s-a-huge-bargain-after-monday-s-crash?source=feed#comment-122086 122086
Alt-A mortgages are not "subprime," and you are correct to point out that journalists have identified the nation's mortgage problems as only stemming from "subprime." Alas I am afraid that is because distinctions between various kinds of risky mortgages elude our friends in the Fourth Estate.

Alt-A loans should be considered "pre-default" loans as they are a kind of financial vehicle that no one ever thought of before Greenspan cut rates so dramatically in 2003. They will also have incredibly high default rates as homedebtors realize that Alt A mortgages are free puts issued by the shareholders of companies like Thornburg Mortgage. And when you are in a house in CA, NV or FL that is way underwater, a free put back to Thornburg (inter alia) is a real lifesaver- for your retirement, your children's college fund, or anything else you would like to spend $200-$500k on other than your underwater mortage.]]> Tue, 04 Mar 2008 15:29:36 -0500
Alt-A mortgages are not "subprime," and you are correct to point out that journalists have identified the nation's mortgage problems as only stemming from "subprime." Alas I am afraid that is because distinctions between various kinds of risky mortgages elude our friends in the Fourth Estate.

Alt-A loans should be considered "pre-default" loans as they are a kind of financial vehicle that no one ever thought of before Greenspan cut rates so dramatically in 2003. They will also have incredibly high default rates as homedebtors realize that Alt A mortgages are free puts issued by the shareholders of companies like Thornburg Mortgage. And when you are in a house in CA, NV or FL that is way underwater, a free put back to Thornburg (inter alia) is a real lifesaver- for your retirement, your children's college fund, or anything else you would like to spend $200-$500k on other than your underwater mortage.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66564-fallacy-of-inflation-targeting?source=feed#comment-120573 120573 Fri, 29 Feb 2008 08:24:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66652-miami-condo-vultures-a-fool-s-game?source=feed#comment-120572 120572 Fri, 29 Feb 2008 08:22:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66108-ambac-more-smoke-and-mirrors?source=feed#comment-119902 119902
Some of us remember Enron. Other members of the investment community apparently need to be re-taught these lessons every 5 years or so.]]> Wed, 27 Feb 2008 16:57:36 -0500
Some of us remember Enron. Other members of the investment community apparently need to be re-taught these lessons every 5 years or so.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66196-credit-cards-around-the-world?source=feed#comment-119899 119899 Wed, 27 Feb 2008 16:54:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66200-letter-writer-of-the-day-mbia-s-jay-brown?source=feed#comment-119898 119898 Wed, 27 Feb 2008 16:53:05 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66222-ambac-financial-get-into-bond-insurance-before-buffett-does?source=feed#comment-119897 119897 Wed, 27 Feb 2008 16:51:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66090-is-silver-point-a-television-company-repairman?source=feed#comment-119891 119891 CDL.L) they definitely played the role of Gordon Gekko, not Sir Larry Wildmon. "Because it's wreckable, all right?!"]]> Wed, 27 Feb 2008 16:42:56 -0500 CDL.L) they definitely played the role of Gordon Gekko, not Sir Larry Wildmon. "Because it's wreckable, all right?!"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65876-a-bank-led-bank-insurer-bailout?source=feed#comment-119362 119362
"Prescient" then goes on to assert that Citi is "happy to hold" Ambac insured assets - (what?!) and then argues that anyone who does not have full information (which ABK and C of course are not releasing) "is an idiot."

Mr Prescient- all you need to know was revealed to you in Stan O'Neal's last CC as head of MER in which he said they took 30%+ writedowns on AAA rated secs. ABK and MBIA insure far more such paper than MER ever owned. It's just a matter of time. Rage, rage against the dying of the light if you wish, but these companies are going out and they are going out hard.]]> Tue, 26 Feb 2008 14:52:15 -0500
"Prescient" then goes on to assert that Citi is "happy to hold" Ambac insured assets - (what?!) and then argues that anyone who does not have full information (which ABK and C of course are not releasing) "is an idiot."

Mr Prescient- all you need to know was revealed to you in Stan O'Neal's last CC as head of MER in which he said they took 30%+ writedowns on AAA rated secs. ABK and MBIA insure far more such paper than MER ever owned. It's just a matter of time. Rage, rage against the dying of the light if you wish, but these companies are going out and they are going out hard.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65879-mbia-dismisses-ackman-got-a-better-plan?source=feed#comment-119357 119357
In the meanwhile, it would be nice (as Ackman proposed) for what little cash flow dribbles out of these companies to be paid first to muni policy holders, and subsequently to structured finance gamblers.

There is a much stronger public policy argument for supporting the muni market (which will live on) instead of supporting the structured finance market, which has about the same life expectancy as a GI who just sat down on a live grenade.]]> Tue, 26 Feb 2008 14:44:01 -0500
In the meanwhile, it would be nice (as Ackman proposed) for what little cash flow dribbles out of these companies to be paid first to muni policy holders, and subsequently to structured finance gamblers.

There is a much stronger public policy argument for supporting the muni market (which will live on) instead of supporting the structured finance market, which has about the same life expectancy as a GI who just sat down on a live grenade.]]>