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wkndrdie1

wkndrdie1
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  • Annaly: Adding This Stock To The Team Alpha Portfolio [View article]
    RS: What are your thoughts regarding NLY's new leadership since Mike Farrell's death last October? Do you see or have any sense of changes to their strategy, use of leverage, risk taking, etc?
    Feb 8 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Express Scripts And Competition In Pharma Benefits [View article]
    Peter; Thanks for the article; nice write-up and great points.

    A couple of clarifications though: (1) Prior to the close of the acquisition, Medco was the largest of the "big 3" PBMs by revenue while ESI was third behind CVS/Caremark; and (2) ESI's Q3 earnings beat estimates $1.02 EPS vs First Call consensus of $1.00. The stock "tanked" following the analyst call where the CEO commented that the forward estimates by the street for 2013 were "overly aggressive" given the expected economic headwinds.

    Transcript of the call notes his statements: "Notwithstanding these recent successes, the economic environmental outlook is presenting some near term challenges. Over the last few weeks as part of our forecasting process, we spoke to many of our health claim clients and large employer clients. What we learned is that our clients have unprecedented concerns of our country's economic outlook. This lackluster economy is taking its toll in several areas." (and he went on to enumerate those areas)

    His follow on statement apparently did not register nearly as strongly with the market: "In spite of these near term headwinds in a challenging macroeconomic environment, we expect to grow earnings per share and EBITDA in 2013. In fact, we expect to grow gross profit per adjusted Rx in the high single-digit range and EBITDA per adjusted Rx in the mid-teens next year. However, with the acceleration of synergies in '12 which translates into lower incremental synergies in '13 along with lower volume expectations, we view current consensus estimates for '13 as overly aggressive." ("Synergies" referring to the cost savings planned from the merger of the two companies.)

    Unfortunately the stock drop here seemed like punishment for exceptional performance in that area. All in all, I'm not ready to bet against this leadership team.
    Jan 25 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Retire With A $1,000,000 Portfolio? [View article]
    RS. Thanks for your articles through the past year! Great ideas; solid commentary; prompts a lot of productive thought. Keep up the good work! (...and I love how engaged you are with your readers!) Wish you and yours good health and a Happy New Year!
    Jan 1 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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