Hugh

Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (6/10/08)

paultaut,

Look at those charts and tell me what the N.Y. gold closing price will be on June 18th.

Thank you very much!

Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (6/10/08)

History never repeats. The fact that a few trends in Art, Politics, Finance and many others cycle in popularity, doesn't mean history repeats itself.

Take a snapshot of the world today, and unless you live in the television show the Twilight Zone or Star Trek, the snap shot will be different from all other snapshots ever taken.

What makes an economy is human action. We have six billion people on earth, all of them taking action daily. What are the possibilities that all of these players will take the same actions again simultaneously?

Look at the green areas of the above charts. Why aren't these areas extended out into the future? If they can't be accurately extended into the future, the they mean nothing.

If charts worked, there would be no markets. This is profound, study it.

Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (6/10/08)

Totally meaningless trival. "Overbought" and "oversold" are overused terms that mean nothing.

If something is "overbought," Then is must be at the same time "oversold."

If a trillion ounces of gold were bought in one hour, one could look at the buyers and claim an "overbought" situation, where another observer could look at the sellers and claim an "oversold" situation. Overbought must therefore cancel oversold, making both terms suitable only for the braindead.

Charts are history. They tell us nothing about the future because the future of a complex economy is ruled by billions of variables on an hourly basis. That Iran may or may not be attacked by the United States next week, therefore sending gold to over $1000 per oz, might be hinged on the menstrual cycle of some general's wife. Where's the chart for that?

Its obvious to me that some people write only to chum for business.

Headwinds for Gold?

Saying, "Gold is not a commodity, it's a currency," is like saying "tuna is not food, it's a fish."

The fact is that gold is a commodity money. The term, "commodity money" has been around for at least a century.

Gold is a commodity, and it is a money. Gold is used in electronics, medicine, jewelry. There is gold in your computer.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

"Commodity money is money whose value comes from a commodity out of which it is made. Examples of commodities that have been used as mediums of exchange include gold, silver, copper, salt, peppercorns, large stones, decorated belts, shells, alcohol, cigarettes, cannabis, and candy."

Moreover, the word "currency" is incorrect in this case. Even in a fully convertible gold standard, paper receipts that are title for gold are the "currency," and the gold is the actual money.

If you want to be incorrect, you ought to do it correctly and say, "gold is money, not a commodity." In this way, you only have ONE thing wrong.

'Gold as Money' Means a Potentially Massive Rise in Valuation

Gold is used in electronics. It is found in computers, satellites, etc. I expect that the government might someday declare gold to have "stategic importance," so that the confiscation of gold will have a patriotic overtone, one that will be hard to resist. If you don't turn in your gold, you will be the enemy.

In this case, one would be hard pressed to find someone to trade with.

Short Term Warning for Gold Bugs

There are just too many variables involved for anyone one the planet to really know what is going to happen in the short run to the gold market, or any commodity for that matter. Charts are only history, and are little better than tea leaves.

Gold is easily moved in either direction by factors outside the gold market itself.

A "contrarian bearish reading" is nothing more than a "mainstream bullish reading."

All of the charts ever created, and all of the talk ever uttered, will never replace the fundamental fact that paper money has no backing.

Gold is Money - And Nothing Else

What is special about $1034?

Quote: "If tonight you curse gold, keep this in mind when it crosses$1034, and please leave never to return."

And, what kind of crap is this???

Gold is Money - And Nothing Else

"Gold is a currency, not a commodity."

Not true. Gold is a commodity that has been used for money for thousands of years, just as salt has been used as money. If one said, "Salt is not a commodity but money," the kookieness would be the same.

Gold is a commodity money. One of many.

There is a term: "Money Crank." Some people can go overboard.

James Turk on Gold: The Ultimate Inflation and Catastrophe Hedge

Turk, speaking of gold says:

"... it is money that doesn’t have counter-party risk. In other words, you’re not reliant upon someone else’s promises for the value of that wealth..."

The problem I see here is that one is in fact reliant on the promise that his company, "Gold Money" does in fact have the gold in a vault somewhere, that the gold is pure and not debased with another metal, that the banks who own the vaults are honest, that the government will keep their word and not seize the gold on a political whim, that those doing the counting are telling the truth...

There is risk, there are promises.

Gold Prices Can Fall, Regardless of Fundamentals

And easily go up. You forgot that part.

Gold’s 'Grand' Illusion

if gold id a 'Grand' Illusion," it has been a grand illusion for 5000 years. I doubt a poorly thought-out and poorly written hit piece will change that fact.

Gold: The Last Cheap Asset Class?

What the spike of 1980 tells us is that a very, very, very small number of people had a vision of the future that lasted a very, very, very short period of time.

What this all means is that the spike was meaningless.

Gold: The Last Cheap Asset Class?

I'm sick of hearing about the very, very short lived spike to $850. Seems like everyone keeps returning to this novelty as though it has meaning.

The fact that it didn't last more than a day or so proves that it has no meaning.

What gives a price meaning is SUPPORT. If, in 1980, the price of gold held $800-900 for several months, then, and only then would it have meaning.

Also, the idea that gold will return to the $850 price in real dollars, (inflation adjusted) is without any merit. A one day spike (or was it five minutes?) 28 years ago tells us zero (nothing, zilch) about what the market will do tomorrow or next year.

Come on, get real.

A $1Million Wager for Gold Bears

No one knows what the price of gold will be. Jim Sinclair is a Kook. Go to his site. Looks like a something dreamed up from a mental institution.

IAU: Can Spot Gold Continue Its Tear?

As for GLD, go to their web site for an explanation as to how the gold is kept in a trust, in a vault in London I believe. They even have photos of pallets stacked with gold.

Another good question is, "How do we know the BANKS have our money on hand rather than just paper contracts where they invested in risky schemes?"

The answer is that they don't have our money, and they did invest it in a lot of risky worthless paper. (such as mortgages)