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  • Apple's EPS lifted by $687 iPhone ASP, 39.9% gross margin [View news story]
    Impressive. It may be that it is not up more because people are asking what they are going to do for an encore. Long Apple for now.
    Jan 27, 2015. 06:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Western Asset Mortgage Capital Now As The Entry Point Is Low [View article]
    This article is merely a recitation of past performance with largely the assumption that past performance predicts future performance. There is no analysis of the value of the stock. Yes, in general, buying on or near the ex div state will tend to yield a profit. However, that is true of every stock and without an analysis of the current state of the business, including the ability to pay dividends, I don't think it is justified to recommend a buy at this time.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak What? The Quadruple D - The End [View article]
    I used to be uncertain. Now I am just flummoxed. I think Stockman is right but then I am sure that the powers in control will do nothing about it. After all, the moneyed class is making money. What's not to like? And every time, I operate as if the bubble is about to burst, I get burned. So, should I belly up to the bar one more time?

    And now we have the further absurdity of the right claiming they are concerned about inequality with no evidence that they plan to change course.
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Stock Price Remains Steady With Excellent Dividend Yield [View article]

    With this continuing downturn, I would think that those increases would be priced in by now. I think low interest rates might be part of the problem. Plus, unless we have a bottom in oil with a hefty upswing, there may not be any interest increases this year anyway.
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgages: REITs step in as banks back out [View news story]
    I have not seen any analysis lately of why this is happening.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2014 Earnings Projection - Part 2 [View article]
    very thirsty

    Good questions. But what good is overall net gain if you can't pay the dividends? How do they pay the dividends?
    Jan 19, 2015. 06:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2014 Earnings Projection - Part 2 [View article]
    What am I missing here? While OCI may be more important than EPS, how does it pay the dividends? My concern is still with the narrowing of the interest rate spread which may now be more important than book value.
    Jan 19, 2015. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2014 Earnings Projection - Part 2 [View article]
    You didn't ask me obviously but until recently there has been a consensus that rates are headed up. I think AGNC has made a reasonable judgement that rates were headed up. Obviously, this has not worked out and this has negatively impacted their earnings. I understand that other comprehensive income will be positive but this represents positive book value but does nothing for earnings.

    Inflation is currently nonexistent, so some feel that this will change the FEDs implied timeline of raising rates in the second half of 2015 or earlier. However, most this is because of possibly one time massive reductions in energy costs and those costs which reflect energy costs pass throuhs. So, who the hell knows. If management is wrong, I can understand why.

    In any event, there is a significant loss in earnings. So, while increase in book values might normally be a positive, the question is will the decreased earnings stop the stock to fund because of the belief that we will have decreased dividends.

    And then there is the decreasing spread issue, another issue that will decrease interest earnings.
    Jan 19, 2015. 04:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Very Attractive Value But Based On Growth Expectations Dependent On Continued Innovation [View article]
    Apple is a cult. However, that may be enough to keep its stock up for awhile. Just because it is a cult doesn't mean it is not worth buying.
    Jan 17, 2015. 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil-Fueled Economic Cycle [View article]
    True, but horizontal wells deplete much faster than conventional wells which is why they have to continue to increase drilling to keep up with the depletion.
    Jan 17, 2015. 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out Apple: Here Comes Xiaomi, Microsoft Might Be Right Behind [View article]
    The common theme in all these comments as usual is certainty. I lack that certainty about the future of Apple which is why I sold two days ago in order to secure some profits. If it goes down substantially, I may buy back in but will wait and see. While I think Blair gets much of this right, there is still the intangible factor. People buy Apple for reasons that don't necessarily have to do with tangible hard data.

    As far as Softie goes, skipping operating system numbers will not make them the cool kid on the block.
    Jan 17, 2015. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have Concerns Regarding American Capital Agency After The Dividend Announcement [View article]

    Won't they just be announcing BV or the 4th qtr?
    Jan 17, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have Concerns Regarding American Capital Agency After The Dividend Announcement [View article]
    My concern now is not book value, but over hedging a rise in interest rates, prepayments, and a flat yield curve. A moderate increase in interest rates would actually be a positive for now. All interest rate increase are not bad. Having said that, the market may not realize that we are in a spot now where rises in interest rates and moderate decreases in book value are not negative events.

    MBS values are up today and MREITs are up. Maybe the market does realize that rising interest rates are a good thing for now Or maybe the market felt like MREITs were over sold based on their negative performance this year.
    Jan 16, 2015. 03:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exploring The Risk Level For CYS Investments, Inc. [View article]
    CYS is one of the few MREITs higher today. Most MREITs went down yet again because of the fear of refinancing. Or so some say. What is it about CYS that enabled it to do so relatively well today? Adjustable rate mortgages. MREITs have been going down lately because interest rates are now too low. This helps MBS that aren't prepaid but it is hell on the spread.

    Right now it doesn't seem to matter whether MBS values go up or down, most MREITs get slammed. Maybe CYS is somewhat of an exception. But again, it is not clear why.
    Jan 14, 2015. 08:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage bonds brace for refinance boom [View news story]
    This article did not mention CMO, which ended slightly up today with a little surge at closing CMO owns variable rate MBS so they will receive less interest but would be minimally subject to refinancing. Maybe they aren't down for other reasons but it would seem that variable rate MREITs would behave differently.
    Jan 14, 2015. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment