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Denny_Chasteen

Denny_Chasteen
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  • Apple Shareholder Meeting: 5 Possible Outcomes [View article]
    Thanks, Travis. But how do you know that board meeting has not already taken place? JDC
    Feb 16 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hyperinflation Is A Myth (And What It Means For Gold Prices) [View article]
    "Commando Friday"

    You are welcome. My favorite "still living" economist, Dr. Peter Morici, talks about the Quantity Theory of Money and velocity of money when he says inflation will not rise dramatically under our current circumstances.

    "Current circumstances" sounds like a hedge or "weasel wording" as one of my old mentors would say. Economists are good at that. They remind me of the way the fortune tellers and hoodoo queens down in New Orleans work and manage to leverage what they don't know to a level of importance greater than what they do know. It's a rather dark craft not meant to be fully understood by all, I suspect.

    I want to understand that theory and be able to identify the "triggers" so I can effectively differentiate between the garden variety "red herrings" and the "dead canary in the coal mine." I want to be able to recognize the "circumstances" that will eventually change that and trigger the economic tsunami that many of us think is inevitable at this point.

    I do believe that sooner or later we are going to see some kind of "ex-lax" effect and all that money injected by the Fed is going to just "shart" out and trigger an economic tsunami which will be known as "Commando Friday." You can't keep packing paraffin oil down the pony for long and not expect not to eventually have a big mess to shovel out.

    I do enjoy the simple example you have constructed and find it very helpful. When thinking complex problems through, I always try and do that as well. I have to. As my cousin Forest always said, "Mama always could explain things in a way that I could understand them."

    Thanks again.
    Feb 12 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hyperinflation Is A Myth (And What It Means For Gold Prices) [View article]
    EXCELLENT!!!! This is one to bookmark. Outstanding job.
    Feb 12 03:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals go into the tank on chatter the G-7 is set to issue a statement in which all will pledge to get along with regards to currency devaluation. The G-20 meets in Moscow at week's end. GLD -1.2%, SLV -1.5%. [View news story]
    G7 is like Bill Murray in the movie "Space Jam." "Perhaps I could be of some assistance."

    http://bit.ly/1272RtU
    Feb 11 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    "Two Column Charting"

    Thanks, spybreaker. There have always been naysayers and also partisan disciples of AAPL. Negative news is piling on. The difference now is that some of it is sticking.

    I think one needs to make a chart with two columns, one column for negatives and one for positives. Only state factual information. Can be either quantitative or qualitative . Each point should be evaluated and ranked in order of importance. Provide an evaluation of each point with supporting links and articles.

    That is what I do in my head and sometimes on spreadsheets. But it has proven to be a lousy trading strategy because traders just don't make decisions that way. Charts, fears and emotions, momentum, herd mentality, occasional manipulation, fund trading rules and conventions, etc. all seem to be the bigger factors. Milton Friedman said: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." One might assume "you" would mean trader more so than investor.

    Alas, I resolved myself to just trying to trade these various factors that seem to drive prices up and down. I am not very good at it, honestly. Long term, I stick to gold and silver. To me AAPL is pretty close to gold or at least is has been. I am fairly sure AAPL is good for a few more years. Maybe longer if they do the right things and can continue to invent the next great thing. Of course that is THE BIG ITEM in the negative column. Jury is out. Time will tell and one has to make a weekly assessment of that situation.

    But AAPL is even more volatile than gold which gives traders a good opportunity to make money. They only way I will ever trade swings is for something I am confident is under valued or over valued. In other word, I don't buy it on speculation unless I am willing to own it or make it an investment at that price. At $470 AAPL is way undervalued. At $700 it is approaching top end value considering the negatives AND the positives. Some people only focus on one column of that chart.

    I have traded the swings and made a lot more money on AAPL than if I had done a buy and hold back at $380. I was out completely by the time it reached $640 before it eventually touched $700. I scaled back in starting at $520 down to $490 and can not buy anymore at this point because I have reached my comfort zone on percentage of assets in one stock. I know many "investors" blame "traders" like me for volatility in the price. And they are correct to do so. But, it is a fair and legal way to money. I think overall it hurts commerce. I would be in favor of much higher taxes on short term trading and high frequency trading and almost no taxes on long term capital gains. But of course, the free market side of me says, "just let the market work." I have this one devil on my left shoulder and this other slightly more benevolent devil on my right shoulder. Both of them want to make money. Please don't anyone ask me if I am taking meds for it. I am just using a metaphor here to make a point.

    Of course I have my fears that it will languish down in the $400's. And this is where my two column chart of pluses and minuses takes hold to give me comfort so that I don't just panic and cut my losses. I am holding pat for now. It has been said that: "An investor is a trader who is underwater." At this point, I am an "Investor" in AAPL.

    So I share your sentiment and that of many others that, as you wrote: "Hopefully Apple will take some actions showing that they do care about shareholders and those that have invested in the company for the long haul."
    Feb 9 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    I know. Five. Thanks. You know how the Holiday Inn Express is supposed to make people smarter. :)

    Maybe I need to stay at Holiday Inn Express to improve my comedic skills. Johnny Carson never had to explain his jokes. :)
    Feb 8 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    Five must have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
    Feb 8 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    No, spybreaker, I took my meds last night. That was the problem. Seriously though, I don't the chart is important at this point. Everybody knows the price crashed. It is what it is and looking at the chart is just not going to tell us that much that we don't already know. JMHO. Well, more humble now that my "meds" have worn off.
    Feb 8 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    Well, I should not say Hennecke does not belong here. He has a moral based opinion about investing in AAPL. I think he is wrong. But it's fine if he wants to divest himself of AAPL and also try to convince others to do the same. That kind of stuff is important to some investors. Thanks.
    Feb 8 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    Looking at the charts on AAPL right now is like looking at the Chinese Zodiac. Pardon me. I forgot to check my calendar for the Chinese New Year. Is it really the year of the Goat as the AAPL hater's say? Is AAPL the goat?

    Rub you old chicken feet together. Look at your wigi board. Tell me your patterns. I just can't wait to hear your predictions.

    Give me a break.
    Feb 7 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    Hennecke you are obviously some kind of activist and don't belong here. Go post on some activist blog. Oh wait. Nobody listens to those morons. I did not call you a moron. That would not display any more intelligence than your posts did about AAPL.
    Feb 7 09:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    smr36. Jobs is dead. Law of large numbers. China market does not exist. AAPL does not have $130B cash. AAPL enthusiasts are suddenly going to buy copycat junk from Samsung. AAPL only grows 38 percent over last year. That is a shiftload full of if's indeed. So many reasons to hate AAPL so little time. Give us some more if's. Just list all you got buddy. Right here, right now. That is a gauntlet. A challenge to you and all the AAPL haters who now have the courage to pile on. List all your negatives. Come on.
    Feb 7 08:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dealing a blow to precious metals, the Chicago Fed's Charles Evans - as dovish as they come - tells CNBC QE could end before unemployment sinks to 7%. As for the 6.5% unemployment rate that might trigger rate hikes, Evans doesn't see that happening until mid-2015. GLD -0.7%, SLV -1.5% premarket. The dollar gets a bid as well, UUP +0.4% premarket. [View news story]
    That is the plain and simple reality, Elliot. Exactly!!! Well said.

    And also then what happens to the market value of those bonds currently being held? Talk about bubble. Sell, Sell, Sell!!! And buy what? Buy gold. Did he just say "buy gold?" How can they say it ain't so.
    Feb 7 11:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dealing a blow to precious metals, the Chicago Fed's Charles Evans - as dovish as they come - tells CNBC QE could end before unemployment sinks to 7%. As for the 6.5% unemployment rate that might trigger rate hikes, Evans doesn't see that happening until mid-2015. GLD -0.7%, SLV -1.5% premarket. The dollar gets a bid as well, UUP +0.4% premarket. [View news story]
    "Blow" my fanny. Same old stuff, different day. Steady as she goes, mates.
    Feb 7 10:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon's Share Price Will Keep Rising [View article]
    You are right, Bruce, but for the wrong reasons. I lost money shorting AMZN. I will admit it. I won't do it again. The price will keep going up. But only because of the "greater fool" principle. And no, I am not calling you a fool. Not at all. Otherwise I would be the greater-greater fool for not recognizing and respecting the terrain as it lays.

    I think all your points are correct except you don't recognize that all those (5) internet arenas are getting more crowded every day. Margins and competition are just not going to ever lead to a good rate of return for AMZN. There is just no way that calculus works. I am not going to belabor point by point because I have done so in previous comments on other articles and never changed anyone's mind.

    As long as people are buy and hold AMZN at such an outrageous price, then it will keep going up in price. In the end, the real value of a stock is whatever price another investor is willing to pay.
    Feb 6 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
700 Comments
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