In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
Hey, that's just hard nosed business. I do get what you are saying. Engineers and inventors get the shaft a lot on IP. Just look at Dr. Kary Mullis and what happened with the DNA PCR patent:
From one hillbilly to another, I have one thing to add about the cursing. Cursing can be a curse.
Twenty years ago, I had a 360 degree survey done to evaluate my people skills and related job performance. That is where you survey a number of people you work with including customers, suppliers, subordinates, etc. Feedback from all angles. Then I took another one just last year.
The results and comments were almost the same twenty years later. From a totally different set of people, in a totally different business sector and a different state. One comment in each of them was, "I wish Denny would stop using profanity." A great many people are just out right offended by it. I thought had addressed the issue back then because I have almost stopped using profanity. Almost.
In manufacturing back in those days, profanity along with a fair measure of yelling and temper tantrums in private meetings was common (think Nick Nolte locker room scene from "Blue Chips").
In government services not so much. So when I switched over to the government sector, I really watched my P's and Q's. So I was a bit surprised to see the same comment twenty years later.
My boss said "You can't change the spots on a leopard."
Gives credence to one of my old idols, a sociology professor, Dr. Morris Massey, who authored: "What You Are Now is What You Were When.:" He says that a person's value system is formed at a very young age from surroundings, personal experiences, and events. Also that a person's value system "locks in" by about age 19. And after that, any particular one of a person's values can only be changed by what he calls :"a significant emotional event.:"
There is great and growing long term value in the AAPL ecosystem. As or Samsung, who really knows. TV's are great. Phones, are cheap. Tablets are WAY inferior. Accounting, integrity and governance could not pass a Sarbanes-Oxley test probably. But probably they are a better company in that regard than most people seem to think. Siri might say: "Value system undefined."
TechCrunch, watch your potty mouth. But first unfriend Rufus. :)
Sometimes there is just no better word to describe something. My mom, the smartest person I have ever known, would say otherwise. If I said what you said, she would beat the what you said out of me.
Profanity is a rich part of American linguistics and should not be either under estimated or over used.
I don't know much about the Samsung phones. Somebody handed me a new Samsung Galaxy tablet in a meeting the other day. It was a real piece of what you said.
With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
Ergo, Zhang!!! You are a fast learner, grasshopper. The iPhone 5 was in early life cycle for the 1Q13 reporting period. Also there was iOS 6 and the maps fiasco. And like I said, the Samsung component re-sourcing issue (more costs to come). You can expect cost performance to improve significantly in subsequent quarters. Good to see you admit that you don't know shibboleths about manufacturing and supply chain logistics. :)
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
That's very true bobbob. Indeed. But then the sly fox never gets caught does he? Just look at what Dan Hesse did to S and CLWR stock with his bombastic statements towards CLWR. And somebody on the BOD leaking info about the iPhone contract details. Look at both of them now. Did he do that on purpose? I don't know. You know, now that you mention it, I think Tim Cook does have too much integrity to do something like that.
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
SM, it's far from the same thing. That was an entire "virtual" industry of over valued dot com stocks. AAPL is not over valued. Nothing like any of the worthless over valued dot coms that went bust. The tech stocks that are overvalued now are CRM, NFLX, AMZN. Most others including MSFT, IBM, CSCO, and INTC are undervalued and will remain solid investments given continued prudent accounting and management.
I worked for Lucent at the time the dot com bubble burst so I very well know a bubble when I see one. If it is a bubble, then get out at any price and save what you can. But this ain't a bubble. The CRM's, NFLX, and AMZNs are very similar to the dot.coms. They are a bubble. APPL and the others I mention are solid and healthy tech giants.
So long as they do not make the mistake of selling equipment on credit or loaning money to CRM, NFLX, and AMZN, they will be fine. Lucent would have been fine if not for extending credit for customers to buy their equipment. Those customers were operating in the dotcomosphere bubble and when they went bust so did Lucent. Thanks go to Rich McGinn.
With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
"Ramp Ups - Bending and Breaking Manufacturing Cost Curves"
Yes Zhang. I am talking about the first few weeks of cost. Not YoY. Consider sales by week on the iPhone 5. Then back that up to offset logistics and manufacturing lead time.
Costs are not static. They are way higher and margins way lower on the front end of any new product. Not only manufacturing, but also retail and marketing. Right up front, there is training and certification, new packaging, creation of the advertising and retail store capacity. A lot of small tools and fixtures are expensed up front rather than capitalized. For example, the first few weeks of supply may have to be shipped air-freight rather than ground or sea. Same for the components getting started up on the assembly lines. It's a crazy and stressful process to manage no matter how well it appears from the outside. If you knew half the problems every company has in starting up new production you would scare off all their investors.
I have ramped up many new manufacturing lines and processes for electronics manufacturing and also ramp ups for two major semi-conductor fabs (even harder and more costs). "Ramp up" costs are significant and go from high to zero over some short months of production. Quality costs are higher. More inspection, rework and scrap. On and on.
I guess people just think Steve Jobs had this magic wand. He didn't. Tim Cook is the man who made all that magic happen. I wish he was also an innovator. But he is not. He needs to go back to operations and let's get a visionary leader.
Not only that, but AAPL is trying to get off Samsung components. OMG what a cost risk and investment this will require. Look for foundries like Chartered Semi-conducter in Singapore to get a huge chunk of business potentially. They have produced processor chips for Microsoft, IBM, Motorola, you name it. Not sure how the accounting will be done on this, but the start up and ramp up costs will be VERY high.
I suspect that the quarter caught the iPhone 5 at a point on the cost curve where ramp up costs are highest. But every aspect considered, things are much better with Apple than most people realize right now. The cost and margin curves are just bent, not broken.
With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
Look it costs more money to manufacture a new item than an old one. PERIOD. As more are produced, inefficiencies are discovered and implemented. Let me add that it's a very, very sharp curve on that also. Get on the front side of the cost curve for a new product and many times your are lucky to even show a profit!!!!!!
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
Dropping expectations is very smart. Painful for a while. Netflix did that as did Amazon and CRM. All those being highly overvalued, however. But it did set them up for "huge beats" in the following quarter and propelled their over valued stocks even higher.
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
That's what this article shows so well, I think. The YoY comparisons were stunning. Many positive headlines are right in that one chart.
Although better at ciphering than Jethro Bodine, I am just as naive. I am amazed at Tim Cooks lack of skill in delivering results. It has be wondering if he is not just "crazy like a fox." What can he do with all that cash? Well, he could drive down the price to $370 and then buy back 100 million shares. That would be very smart indeed.
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
Just wait until everyone figures out just how bad Samsung Galaxy and Windows 8 really are. A lot of these were sold. Not many will still be around this time next year. Also the returns for refund are not all in yet. Will be a stunning piece of data when you see it.
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
http://bit.ly/WZuvCU
Samsung: The Fifth Horseman [View article]
From one hillbilly to another, I have one thing to add about the cursing. Cursing can be a curse.
Twenty years ago, I had a 360 degree survey done to evaluate my people skills and related job performance. That is where you survey a number of people you work with including customers, suppliers, subordinates, etc. Feedback from all angles. Then I took another one just last year.
The results and comments were almost the same twenty years later. From a totally different set of people, in a totally different business sector and a different state. One comment in each of them was, "I wish Denny would stop using profanity." A great many people are just out right offended by it. I thought had addressed the issue back then because I have almost stopped using profanity. Almost.
In manufacturing back in those days, profanity along with a fair measure of yelling and temper tantrums in private meetings was common (think Nick Nolte locker room scene from "Blue Chips").
In government services not so much. So when I switched over to the government sector, I really watched my P's and Q's. So I was a bit surprised to see the same comment twenty years later.
My boss said "You can't change the spots on a leopard."
Gives credence to one of my old idols, a sociology professor, Dr. Morris Massey, who authored: "What You Are Now is What You Were When.:" He says that a person's value system is formed at a very young age from surroundings, personal experiences, and events. Also that a person's value system "locks in" by about age 19. And after that, any particular one of a person's values can only be changed by what he calls :"a significant emotional event.:"
There is great and growing long term value in the AAPL ecosystem. As or Samsung, who really knows. TV's are great. Phones, are cheap. Tablets are WAY inferior. Accounting, integrity and governance could not pass a Sarbanes-Oxley test probably. But probably they are a better company in that regard than most people seem to think. Siri might say: "Value system undefined."
Samsung: The Fifth Horseman [View article]
Sometimes there is just no better word to describe something. My mom, the smartest person I have ever known, would say otherwise. If I said what you said, she would beat the what you said out of me.
Profanity is a rich part of American linguistics and should not be either under estimated or over used.
I don't know much about the Samsung phones. Somebody handed me a new Samsung Galaxy tablet in a meeting the other day. It was a real piece of what you said.
With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
I worked for Lucent at the time the dot com bubble burst so I very well know a bubble when I see one. If it is a bubble, then get out at any price and save what you can. But this ain't a bubble. The CRM's, NFLX, and AMZNs are very similar to the dot.coms. They are a bubble. APPL and the others I mention are solid and healthy tech giants.
So long as they do not make the mistake of selling equipment on credit or loaning money to CRM, NFLX, and AMZN, they will be fine. Lucent would have been fine if not for extending credit for customers to buy their equipment. Those customers were operating in the dotcomosphere bubble and when they went bust so did Lucent. Thanks go to Rich McGinn.
Technology has a long way to go from here.
With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
Yes Zhang. I am talking about the first few weeks of cost. Not YoY. Consider sales by week on the iPhone 5. Then back that up to offset logistics and manufacturing lead time.
Costs are not static. They are way higher and margins way lower on the front end of any new product. Not only manufacturing, but also retail and marketing. Right up front, there is training and certification, new packaging, creation of the advertising and retail store capacity. A lot of small tools and fixtures are expensed up front rather than capitalized. For example, the first few weeks of supply may have to be shipped air-freight rather than ground or sea. Same for the components getting started up on the assembly lines. It's a crazy and stressful process to manage no matter how well it appears from the outside. If you knew half the problems every company has in starting up new production you would scare off all their investors.
I have ramped up many new manufacturing lines and processes for electronics manufacturing and also ramp ups for two major semi-conductor fabs (even harder and more costs). "Ramp up" costs are significant and go from high to zero over some short months of production. Quality costs are higher. More inspection, rework and scrap. On and on.
I guess people just think Steve Jobs had this magic wand. He didn't. Tim Cook is the man who made all that magic happen. I wish he was also an innovator. But he is not. He needs to go back to operations and let's get a visionary leader.
Not only that, but AAPL is trying to get off Samsung components. OMG what a cost risk and investment this will require. Look for foundries like Chartered Semi-conducter in Singapore to get a huge chunk of business potentially. They have produced processor chips for Microsoft, IBM, Motorola, you name it. Not sure how the accounting will be done on this, but the start up and ramp up costs will be VERY high.
I suspect that the quarter caught the iPhone 5 at a point on the cost curve where ramp up costs are highest. But every aspect considered, things are much better with Apple than most people realize right now. The cost and margin curves are just bent, not broken.
With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
Although better at ciphering than Jethro Bodine, I am just as naive. I am amazed at Tim Cooks lack of skill in delivering results. It has be wondering if he is not just "crazy like a fox." What can he do with all that cash? Well, he could drive down the price to $370 and then buy back 100 million shares. That would be very smart indeed.
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]