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Denny_Chasteen

Denny_Chasteen
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  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    Nobody is eating AAPL's lunch. That's ridiculous. AAPL's lunch sack is growing every quarter by more than even AAPL can eat. Samsung is making a killing just from the scraps from AAPL's table.
    Jan 28 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    Thanks, Paulo. Very good. I was asking myself the exact same question and wondering what the corresponding P/E ratio were for MSFT and CSCO back then. AAPL was not selling at that P/E that growth investors were willing to pay for stocks like MSFT and CSCO of the day. And nowhere near like NFLX, AMZN, and CRM are getting today.

    I wish you had used a multi-axis chart to show the price, earnings, and P/E for all three stocks through 2012. I started to subscribe to that YCharts service. They seem to have excellent support also as I recall a fellow there named Nathan Pinger provided me some excellent answers to find some data that I was researching.

    I think that YCharts service is a dream tool for analytical people. I just almost signed up, but it is quite expensive per month as I recall.
    Jan 28 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    Everywhere I go, I run across those who feel like they are somehow entitled to something more from someone else. Nobody here owes you anything. You are not entitled to anything for your work other than what someone who can benefit from it agrees to pay you.

    If you don't like what is offered where you are then you are free to seek out elsewhere whatever amount of money that your talent and skill at your particular craft will bear. Perhaps find a new craft or work harder and get better at the one you have.

    Of course in your mind, I am sure your continued failures in life will always be someone else's fault. Such are the bewildered and embattled lives of those oppressed souls such as yourself. If only you could somehow take more from those evil rich and business people. Man wouldn't that be fair!! Wouldn't life be just dandy if you could somehow just take more from others who have more.

    Yippy ki yay!!! I hate to be so harsh, but I am just sick of socialists, Marxists and the world full of losers who feel like they are entitled to something from others.
    Jan 27 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    They have not broken any laws. Oppression would mean they held employees against their will. Get real.
    Jan 27 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
    Wow, jrez. The oil industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation in innovation right now. Not only with finding gas and oil but with getting it out of the ground with more advanced fracking techniques. The US has an opportunity now to actually become independent of foreign oil and become a net energy exporter. The pollution is far less than what you think.
    Jan 26 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    Thanks, Doyle, I have some catching up to do. This whole undercurrent with AAPL dumping Samsung chips could be bigger than most even realize right now.

    I did not realize how many chips AAPL used from Samsung. Also that Samsung hiked the price of those chips by 20% recently. It's bad to be hand to mouth with your competitor also as your supplier. Now I had just assumed that AAPL would turn to foundries like TSMC (Taiwan) or Chartered Semiconductor (Singapore) for these chips. Both the companies have AWESOME capabilities. Now I hear Intel may be getting a chunk.

    What a game changer that would be for Intel. Personally I love Intel as a company. Top to bottom excellence. They offered me a great job in Chandle, AZ r a few years back. Actually gave me 6 locations to pick from. Just too far west for me. I say that after working two years in Asia with the Semiconductor industry. I just had to get back east for personal reasons. But Intel. Man what a company. And it is a chance for AAPL to actually up the percentage of American made components in their products. That and cut the throat of a competitor. WOW!

    Meanwhile headlines everywhere at extolling Samsung and record profits along with positive head line like: "Samsung Reports Record Profits: While Cutting Capex 20%". Then blurbs about how Samsung is just killing AAPL. CNBC has even has to retract part of one of these blathering stories three times before they get it right. The reason Samsung is cutting Capex is because they are going lose business and will be faced with surplus capacity.

    Let me say finally that financial people and investment analysts do not understand manufacturing and supply chain logistics as well as they should. As this strategy unfolds and develops it will have a greater short-term effect on costs, margins, and supply chain than people realize. It's short term bad for AAPL. This could take a year or more to implement. It's long term good for companies companies like ARM Holdings, Intel, TSMC and Chartered Semiconductor. It sure puts AAPL in a vulnerable spot for a while with respect to components. Switching semi-conductor suppliers is a very, very hard thing to do. Ramp ups are hard. Not only that, if the components are both Samsung designed and manufactured then AAPL also has to turn to someone like ARM Holdings for the design prior to contracting out to wafer fab foundries.

    Please take a look at what it takes to get Semiconductor capacity on line (last reference below).

    References:
    Apple-Samsung Relationship:
    http://cnet.co/14mHKC4

    CNBC Revises Samsung Article THREE Times:
    http://bit.ly/W77D73

    Building Intel's Wafer Fab 32:
    http://bit.ly/VeE7bA
    Jan 26 03:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    Clarification: That was a $300M patent for which Mullis got peanuts.
    Jan 26 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    Hey, that's just hard nosed business. I do get what you are saying. Engineers and inventors get the shaft a lot on IP. Just look at Dr. Kary Mullis and what happened with the DNA PCR patent:

    http://bit.ly/WZuvCU
    Jan 26 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung: The Fifth Horseman [View article]
    Yee ha, Hillbilly!!

    From one hillbilly to another, I have one thing to add about the cursing. Cursing can be a curse.

    Twenty years ago, I had a 360 degree survey done to evaluate my people skills and related job performance. That is where you survey a number of people you work with including customers, suppliers, subordinates, etc. Feedback from all angles. Then I took another one just last year.

    The results and comments were almost the same twenty years later. From a totally different set of people, in a totally different business sector and a different state. One comment in each of them was, "I wish Denny would stop using profanity." A great many people are just out right offended by it. I thought had addressed the issue back then because I have almost stopped using profanity. Almost.

    In manufacturing back in those days, profanity along with a fair measure of yelling and temper tantrums in private meetings was common (think Nick Nolte locker room scene from "Blue Chips").

    In government services not so much. So when I switched over to the government sector, I really watched my P's and Q's. So I was a bit surprised to see the same comment twenty years later.

    My boss said "You can't change the spots on a leopard."

    Gives credence to one of my old idols, a sociology professor, Dr. Morris Massey, who authored: "What You Are Now is What You Were When.:" He says that a person's value system is formed at a very young age from surroundings, personal experiences, and events. Also that a person's value system "locks in" by about age 19. And after that, any particular one of a person's values can only be changed by what he calls :"a significant emotional event.:"

    There is great and growing long term value in the AAPL ecosystem. As or Samsung, who really knows. TV's are great. Phones, are cheap. Tablets are WAY inferior. Accounting, integrity and governance could not pass a Sarbanes-Oxley test probably. But probably they are a better company in that regard than most people seem to think. Siri might say: "Value system undefined."
    Jan 26 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung: The Fifth Horseman [View article]
    TechCrunch, watch your potty mouth. But first unfriend Rufus. :)

    Sometimes there is just no better word to describe something. My mom, the smartest person I have ever known, would say otherwise. If I said what you said, she would beat the what you said out of me.

    Profanity is a rich part of American linguistics and should not be either under estimated or over used.

    I don't know much about the Samsung phones. Somebody handed me a new Samsung Galaxy tablet in a meeting the other day. It was a real piece of what you said.
    Jan 26 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
    Ergo, Zhang!!! You are a fast learner, grasshopper. The iPhone 5 was in early life cycle for the 1Q13 reporting period. Also there was iOS 6 and the maps fiasco. And like I said, the Samsung component re-sourcing issue (more costs to come). You can expect cost performance to improve significantly in subsequent quarters. Good to see you admit that you don't know shibboleths about manufacturing and supply chain logistics. :)
    Jan 25 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    bobbob was simply refuting my suggestion that Tim Cook wanted AAPL to go down so they could do a buy back.
    Jan 25 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    That's very true bobbob. Indeed. But then the sly fox never gets caught does he? Just look at what Dan Hesse did to S and CLWR stock with his bombastic statements towards CLWR. And somebody on the BOD leaking info about the iPhone contract details. Look at both of them now. Did he do that on purpose? I don't know. You know, now that you mention it, I think Tim Cook does have too much integrity to do something like that.
    Jan 25 03:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    SM, it's far from the same thing. That was an entire "virtual" industry of over valued dot com stocks. AAPL is not over valued. Nothing like any of the worthless over valued dot coms that went bust. The tech stocks that are overvalued now are CRM, NFLX, AMZN. Most others including MSFT, IBM, CSCO, and INTC are undervalued and will remain solid investments given continued prudent accounting and management.

    I worked for Lucent at the time the dot com bubble burst so I very well know a bubble when I see one. If it is a bubble, then get out at any price and save what you can. But this ain't a bubble. The CRM's, NFLX, and AMZNs are very similar to the dot.coms. They are a bubble. APPL and the others I mention are solid and healthy tech giants.

    So long as they do not make the mistake of selling equipment on credit or loaning money to CRM, NFLX, and AMZN, they will be fine. Lucent would have been fine if not for extending credit for customers to buy their equipment. Those customers were operating in the dotcomosphere bubble and when they went bust so did Lucent. Thanks go to Rich McGinn.

    Technology has a long way to go from here.
    Jan 25 02:53 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
    "Ramp Ups - Bending and Breaking Manufacturing Cost Curves"

    Yes Zhang. I am talking about the first few weeks of cost. Not YoY. Consider sales by week on the iPhone 5. Then back that up to offset logistics and manufacturing lead time.

    Costs are not static. They are way higher and margins way lower on the front end of any new product. Not only manufacturing, but also retail and marketing. Right up front, there is training and certification, new packaging, creation of the advertising and retail store capacity. A lot of small tools and fixtures are expensed up front rather than capitalized. For example, the first few weeks of supply may have to be shipped air-freight rather than ground or sea. Same for the components getting started up on the assembly lines. It's a crazy and stressful process to manage no matter how well it appears from the outside. If you knew half the problems every company has in starting up new production you would scare off all their investors.

    I have ramped up many new manufacturing lines and processes for electronics manufacturing and also ramp ups for two major semi-conductor fabs (even harder and more costs). "Ramp up" costs are significant and go from high to zero over some short months of production. Quality costs are higher. More inspection, rework and scrap. On and on.

    I guess people just think Steve Jobs had this magic wand. He didn't. Tim Cook is the man who made all that magic happen. I wish he was also an innovator. But he is not. He needs to go back to operations and let's get a visionary leader.

    Not only that, but AAPL is trying to get off Samsung components. OMG what a cost risk and investment this will require. Look for foundries like Chartered Semi-conducter in Singapore to get a huge chunk of business potentially. They have produced processor chips for Microsoft, IBM, Motorola, you name it. Not sure how the accounting will be done on this, but the start up and ramp up costs will be VERY high.

    I suspect that the quarter caught the iPhone 5 at a point on the cost curve where ramp up costs are highest. But every aspect considered, things are much better with Apple than most people realize right now. The cost and margin curves are just bent, not broken.
    Jan 25 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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