Seeking Alpha

Denny_Chasteen

Denny_Chasteen
Send Message
View Denny_Chasteen's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Apple Increases iPhone Discount To 36% To Counter Samsung's Upsurge In India [View article]
    I have come to that realization also, szeducate. You know, the high end Samsung phones are not at all cheap compared to the iPhone. Tablets either. People proclaiming that Samsung is "winning" sound a lot like Charlie Sheen to me. They win the prize for selling the most cheap phones at the lowest margin. I can see them now at the hawker stands in China right next to the guy yelling "Cheap Suits!!" Buu Yow!!!

    I the Google Analytics data that I watch coming into my web sites, the number of hits coming from Samsung devices is not growing compared to Apple the way you would think if there really were a "sea change." I don't see it in the data. Apple is still the big dog in the mobile and tablet world. Big and still growing.

    Apple just really needs to snatch that market out from under them by making new release to the iPhone 4 which is priced to compete on the low end. It won't cut into sales in the high end. But it would knock the pilings out from under Samsung.
    May 16, 2013. 05:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Increases iPhone Discount To 36% To Counter Samsung's Upsurge In India [View article]
    "Sheep Story"

    One day a farmer was watching his sheep in the field. The sheep dog would herd them around with total masterful control over them. The farmer gets bored so he pulls a wire across the field about a foot from the ground. The dog goes running across the field, sees the wire and jumps over it. The first sheep came to the wire, tripped on it and fell down. The second sheep came to the wire, tripped on it and fell down. So did the third sheep and so on until they had all tripped and fallen.

    Ten minutes later, the same thing happened from the other direction. Days and days passed and finally one day the first sheep came to the wire and stopped. The second sheep stopped as did the third and so on until they were all stopped. The first sheep stepped over the wire. Then followed all the other sheep stepping over the wire.

    Well, the fun was over though the farmer. So he removed the wire. Next day dog runs by, sees the wire is gone, runs right on through. He looks back for the sheep. They all stopped and one by one are stepping over the same spot where the wire was the day before. One sheep carefully following the other.

    The sheep continued this behavior for years on end. Even after the first sheep had died and went to sheep heaven, their offspring continued to stop at the spot where the wire was before and step over. Even though the trip wire was long gone.

    Such is true with the people selling their AAPL stock at fire sale prices. Somebody cried "wolf." Others chimed in. And that is the end to my story.
    May 16, 2013. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Increases iPhone Discount To 36% To Counter Samsung's Upsurge In India [View article]
    I saw that six-oh. The same day AAPL dropped $15. Apparently people listen to those blow hards. I have never hear a more ridiculuous assertion in my life. It just proves there are haters our there would place emotion over reason. See "sheep story" below.
    May 16, 2013. 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Using Share Buybacks To Support Its Stock Price? [View article]
    Do I hear the wind blowing or is it just another AAPL hater piling on?
    Apr 9, 2013. 12:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: When Negatives Can Be Positives [View article]
    That's right Tradevestor. And the other thing is making changes to the supply chain, dropping Samsung components, for example. Changes to supply chain have VERY high upfront costs. Up front design and planning costs, but also problems with yield and cost of quality in the early going. People who have never worked in manufacturing and especially semi-conductor or wafer fabs have no understanding of what this involves and how long it takes for all the processes to ramp up. Look for much higher margins this quarter.

    Market share does concern me. But, it's a growing market. It's growing on the high end and the low end as well. When the economy slows, it's usually the low end products that bear the brunt of the slowdown. Up scale and luxury items are least affected. It's likely that any slowdown on EITHER the high end or the low end will be only a slowdown in the rate of growth and not overall sales.

    Time will tell, but AAPL stock is in for a heck of a beat down first. More to come as they stir the pot over this "too much cash" problem. They need to come to a resolution on dividends and preferred stock. Every day they don't increases the case that Einhorn has made that AAPL does not care enough about the share holders. Not many buyers lining up these days, Too many unknowns. Too many dark shadows. The haters and naysayers have piled on now and have created that "critical mass" required to "stampede the herd."
    Feb 27, 2013. 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: When Negatives Can Be Positives [View article]
    Just look at what VZ is pushing now on their web site versus a year ago. Technologies that arrived before their time are now finding their place into the mainstream. Fiber to the home (old AT&T idea). iTunesU. AAPL as a music vendor. AAPL as a movie vendor (look out NFLX). AAPL as a major provider of Learning Management Systems (LMS). The whole FaceTime product. The communications pipeline is changing. The growth and innovation in interactive media has only just started. AAPL is well positioned to own the lion's share.
    Feb 25, 2013. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: When Negatives Can Be Positives [View article]
    "Money is in the Media - And in Even More in the Medium"

    A big opportunity for AAPL in the future is new media and integration with youth through educational platforms. And or, they could easily topple and trump a large part of AMZN, all of NFLX and a couple of major networks including some SatCom. Possibly even T and VZ.

    Look for Apple TV integrated with AAPL fibre and 4G wireless networks. Look for Apple Wi-Fi and 4G phone systems with VoIP for home, auto and business. The communications pipeline is going to change dramatically in the next few years. Get an eye on it now. Just look at VZ's website and what they are pushing now compared to a year ago.

    Look for FaceTime to explode as well as iTunesU. In the next few years, AAPL will disconnect from T and VZ. Look for AAPL to be the main player as content facilitator in new media creation and delivery devices but also the software, and infrastructure. It can all be Apple's for the taking.
    Feb 25, 2013. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: When Negatives Can Be Positives [View article]
    I totally get that one Tradevestor. I had been hoping some would write this article. Well done.
    Feb 25, 2013. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shareholder Meeting: 5 Possible Outcomes [View article]
    Thanks, Travis. But how do you know that board meeting has not already taken place? JDC
    Feb 16, 2013. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    "Two Column Charting"

    Thanks, spybreaker. There have always been naysayers and also partisan disciples of AAPL. Negative news is piling on. The difference now is that some of it is sticking.

    I think one needs to make a chart with two columns, one column for negatives and one for positives. Only state factual information. Can be either quantitative or qualitative . Each point should be evaluated and ranked in order of importance. Provide an evaluation of each point with supporting links and articles.

    That is what I do in my head and sometimes on spreadsheets. But it has proven to be a lousy trading strategy because traders just don't make decisions that way. Charts, fears and emotions, momentum, herd mentality, occasional manipulation, fund trading rules and conventions, etc. all seem to be the bigger factors. Milton Friedman said: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." One might assume "you" would mean trader more so than investor.

    Alas, I resolved myself to just trying to trade these various factors that seem to drive prices up and down. I am not very good at it, honestly. Long term, I stick to gold and silver. To me AAPL is pretty close to gold or at least is has been. I am fairly sure AAPL is good for a few more years. Maybe longer if they do the right things and can continue to invent the next great thing. Of course that is THE BIG ITEM in the negative column. Jury is out. Time will tell and one has to make a weekly assessment of that situation.

    But AAPL is even more volatile than gold which gives traders a good opportunity to make money. They only way I will ever trade swings is for something I am confident is under valued or over valued. In other word, I don't buy it on speculation unless I am willing to own it or make it an investment at that price. At $470 AAPL is way undervalued. At $700 it is approaching top end value considering the negatives AND the positives. Some people only focus on one column of that chart.

    I have traded the swings and made a lot more money on AAPL than if I had done a buy and hold back at $380. I was out completely by the time it reached $640 before it eventually touched $700. I scaled back in starting at $520 down to $490 and can not buy anymore at this point because I have reached my comfort zone on percentage of assets in one stock. I know many "investors" blame "traders" like me for volatility in the price. And they are correct to do so. But, it is a fair and legal way to money. I think overall it hurts commerce. I would be in favor of much higher taxes on short term trading and high frequency trading and almost no taxes on long term capital gains. But of course, the free market side of me says, "just let the market work." I have this one devil on my left shoulder and this other slightly more benevolent devil on my right shoulder. Both of them want to make money. Please don't anyone ask me if I am taking meds for it. I am just using a metaphor here to make a point.

    Of course I have my fears that it will languish down in the $400's. And this is where my two column chart of pluses and minuses takes hold to give me comfort so that I don't just panic and cut my losses. I am holding pat for now. It has been said that: "An investor is a trader who is underwater." At this point, I am an "Investor" in AAPL.

    So I share your sentiment and that of many others that, as you wrote: "Hopefully Apple will take some actions showing that they do care about shareholders and those that have invested in the company for the long haul."
    Feb 9, 2013. 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    I know. Five. Thanks. You know how the Holiday Inn Express is supposed to make people smarter. :)

    Maybe I need to stay at Holiday Inn Express to improve my comedic skills. Johnny Carson never had to explain his jokes. :)
    Feb 8, 2013. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    Five must have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
    Feb 8, 2013. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    No, spybreaker, I took my meds last night. That was the problem. Seriously though, I don't the chart is important at this point. Everybody knows the price crashed. It is what it is and looking at the chart is just not going to tell us that much that we don't already know. JMHO. Well, more humble now that my "meds" have worn off.
    Feb 8, 2013. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    Well, I should not say Hennecke does not belong here. He has a moral based opinion about investing in AAPL. I think he is wrong. But it's fine if he wants to divest himself of AAPL and also try to convince others to do the same. That kind of stuff is important to some investors. Thanks.
    Feb 8, 2013. 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    Looking at the charts on AAPL right now is like looking at the Chinese Zodiac. Pardon me. I forgot to check my calendar for the Chinese New Year. Is it really the year of the Goat as the AAPL hater's say? Is AAPL the goat?

    Rub you old chicken feet together. Look at your wigi board. Tell me your patterns. I just can't wait to hear your predictions.

    Give me a break.
    Feb 7, 2013. 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Denny_Chasteen
COMMENTS STATS
700 Comments
631 Likes