Seeking Alpha

Denny_Chasteen

Denny_Chasteen
Send Message
View Denny_Chasteen's Comments BY TICKER:
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    Hennecke you are obviously some kind of activist and don't belong here. Go post on some activist blog. Oh wait. Nobody listens to those morons. I did not call you a moron. That would not display any more intelligence than your posts did about AAPL.
    Feb 7 09:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    smr36. Jobs is dead. Law of large numbers. China market does not exist. AAPL does not have $130B cash. AAPL enthusiasts are suddenly going to buy copycat junk from Samsung. AAPL only grows 38 percent over last year. That is a shiftload full of if's indeed. So many reasons to hate AAPL so little time. Give us some more if's. Just list all you got buddy. Right here, right now. That is a gauntlet. A challenge to you and all the AAPL haters who now have the courage to pile on. List all your negatives. Come on.
    Feb 7 08:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    Good point, Paulo. To me, AMZN is nothing more than mail order on steroids.
    Feb 4 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    We refresh PC's every four years. It was three years, but due to budget cuts, we extended the policy to a four year replacement cycle. The people in our group who use MACs opted out of their four-year refresh this year. So I am not surprised by what you say. Also not surprised that the MAC sales were disappointing. I don't know much about MACS, but I was told that there was nothing better yet than what they were currently using. So they opted out until next year.
    Feb 3 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    I know this is outrageous, but while we are thinking outside the box, how about Sprint + Clearwire + Radio Shack and then just trample AT&T and Verizon.

    "Thinking too far out of the box can result in you living out of a box." - Dennyism #103
    Jan 31 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    LOL Rookie, that's what I do. Old Motorola Razor and an iPad.

    I have over $6,000 invested in Motorola Razor phones. How? Family plan. I bought (4) with AT&T in Orlando. Then I took a job in Singapore and bought one with StarHub. That's (5). While in Singapore, one of my boys drops his Razor in the toilet. And flushes it. Yes, flushed it. Another $500 plus $125 for a plumber. That's (6) Razor phones. Then I leave my phone in a taxi in Singapore. That was another $500 and my 7th Razor. That was good for a year and a day. Just after the warranty expired the "1" key on my phone in SIngapore stopped working. There goes another $500 and now my 8th Razor. After coming back from Singapore, I moved the family north a state or two. Had to switch from AT&T to Verizon. There's another (4) Razors. That's a total of (12) Motorola Razors in just over (2) years.

    People laugh at my old Motorola flip phone. I just don't care.
    Jan 30 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    Thank you, bilton. I missed a point or two somewhere in the exchange. My simple thesis is this:

    Conclusion: AMZN's cloud service business is not something that should be considered as a positive when establishing it's stock value. If anything it lessens the value due to the "hedgehog principle."

    And we agree 100% on your statement: "Smart companies are realizing computing is just another utility function." Amen.

    I have debated and even argued the value of AMZN stock for over a year. I have also lost some money shorting it. I won't do it again. Same with CRM. At the end of the day, it's worth whatever people are willing to pay to buy and hold it. Pass me back that ancient book of Persian proverbs and pour me some more Amazon Kool-aid, please.
    Jan 30 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    You sure seem to know an awful lot, bilton. An old Persian proverb says: "Those who know not and know not that they know not are fools." Most of the time, you can usually tell because they are quick to blast others with comments like "you are not even close to understanding the cloud." Wow. I am not a cloud expert by any means but neither am I as lacking in understanding as you so boldly suggest.

    For one thing, ftp IS actually still in widespread use (as sftp). We see it everywhere. Secondly I am actually quite familiar with using and configuring cloud services using EMC's Atmos REST API. Instead of storing and retrieving files and directories, you store and retrieve objects. And the objects have many properties and metadata elements. Many parameters to set including how many instances you wish to store. The more replications, theoretically the more reliable. But it's still a similar concept to FTP and too me does seem like FTP on steroids. Cloud service are actually pretty simple to set up. Here is a slideshow for you since you don't seem to know about anything but AWS:

    http://bit.ly/XT3aBl

    Also noteworthy is that EMC's Atmos now has seamless integration of their platform with Amazon S3 API, Windows GeoDrive and also Intel. This is in addition to the REST API. That does bode well for AWS. But also for others. There is much competition in the cloud. And I simply take exception to the AMZN kool-aid drinkers who say "everyone" is migrating to AWS. It simply not true and I have proven it.

    More about interoperability within the Atmos Platform:
    http://zd.net/WyK8TU

    All this really drives home the point that I was making about the cloud service being nothing more than a commodity. You actually made my point for me when you say: "Smart companies are realizing computing is just another utility function." YES!!!! You understand.

    The patents and IP do matter. For example Amazon must have a patent on their S3 API. But is the Amazon S3 API so much better and more powerful than the REST API? Do you know? I doubt it. I don't know. If so, how much is it actually worth? A P/E of -2400x ???? [LAUGHS OUT LOUD]

    Also take note of what I said about the revenue from AWS being only $2.1B best case for even 2014. A small part of AMZN total revenue. That suggests to me that AMZN should sell their cloud product and services to another company and then just be a consumer of that commodity. Remember what you just said. I reiterate your own point: "Smart companies are realizing computing is just another utility function."

    THE MOST IMPORTANT PART:
    Conclusion: AMZN's cloud service business is not something that should be considered as a positive when establishing it's stock value. If anything it lessens the value due to the "hedgehog principle."
    Jan 30 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    Thanks Rootarmo. But you lose some credibility with me when you say "everyone." Wow. Have you worked with the EMS cloud solution? A lot of IT outfits that I work with are actually taking a DIY approach to cloud services.

    Certainly not "everyone" is trying to replicate AWS. And if they do, what happens when they succeed? CRM does their own (I think) and are often called a "cloud company" when they are not. Not much proprietary IP there in the AWS compared to say EMS. How many patents? Do you know? Basically just SANS and ftp servers on steroids.

    But you are correct that I am not an expert on AWS. I have some certified geek buddies who are. They have tried AWS and didn't like it.

    Also if 2014 AWS revenue does go over $2.4B, then compare that to AMZN's overall current revenue of $61.1B. It just does not seem like much of a hedgehog to me. And that is given your best case. It quacks like a misallocation of resources and a distraction to get in the way of more important core objectives. 

    In other words, AMZN investors should not hang their hats on AWS. AMZN needs to come out with their own brand of kool-aid. JMHO.
    Jan 30 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    Andy Rooney Voice: "Did you ever notice that when someone says, 'no offense' that the next thing they try to do is offend you? Or that when they say, 'I am not trying to tell you what to do', that is the very next thing they try to do, Or when they say, 'on a friendly note,' That you had better ready yourself to get blasted?"

    "I keep my feathers numbered for just such an occasion." - Foghorn Leghorn:

    http://bit.ly/VmCOHE

    Let's all put our pins back in our grenades.
    Jan 29 11:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    Jar-Jar Binks voice: "McGonicle, me thinks you are a very wise man." Just so that I am not misunderstood, this is not intended as sarcasm.
    Jan 29 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The 2000 Cisco/Microsoft Of Today? [View article]
    "Lessons Learned"

    AMZN stock price is insane. But then AMZN investors say, "yea but the Amazon Web Services (AWS) is where they are going to see monster growth in the future." They are wrong. Cloud services are quickly becoming commoditized. There will be growth, but margins will become lower and lower.

    And besides, web services are not even a core competency for AMZN. It's just a resource to an end. Just because their applications are web and cloud based does not mean they need to try and be a cloud and web services service provider. Anything AMZN can do cloud wise, EMC and others can do better.

    AMZN is missing the hedgehog concept entirely. If not careful, Walmart will eat their lunch. Especially as sales taxes begin to be collected on all AMZN sales as they are for Walmart.

    Using AMZN logic, It would make just as much sense for Intel to get into the concrete business because their Fab 23 in Chandler, AZ required over 89,000 cubic yards of concrete to build. AT&T tried to enter the computer business back in the 1980s because their 5ESS telephone switch utilized their own 3B-20 Unix based computers.

    The computer business was a disaster for AT&T. They should have based the 5ESS switch on Sun or maybe even VAX servers at that time and not tried to develop and manufacture servers. A server is a server is a server. The 5ESS switch was revolutionary. It would have been a lot more profitable to use computers from other companies than trying to develop and market their own line of servers. They should have stayed focused on telcom and networking equipment. And you know to beat that, AT&T even went into the application software business then to try and sell their computers. That was a disaster also.

    I predict that cloud and web services will be a disaster long term for AMZN. They need to focus on retail and distribution.
    Jan 29 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    "Old School"

    Thanks, Jonathan. I am not a lawyer, obviously. But I entered into an agreement with that company up front. I agreed in advance that upon completion of my contract and acceptance of my completion bonus that I would not work for one of their competitors for a period of two years after completion. Whether it's legal or not, I accepted the terms of that agreement and always try to honor my commitments. I never get a lawyer and try to weasel out of an agreement. I suspect if I had pushed it, that I could have gotten them to drop the non-compete clause. But maybe not as there was a lot of very critical competitive information involved. And besides, it was in a foreign country.

    Let me re-iterate the elements of dedication, loyalty and professionalism that need to be packaged with skill and talent for engineers and other technical professionals. When signing on, you should be prepared to put the company first, your team's mission within the company second, your team third, and yourself last.

    Years ago I relocated with AT&T. They provided me a $100,000 relocation package which included home purchase, relocation bonus and even cash allowances for re-decoration. They sent me to school in the Summers to get my master's degree. They paid my salary, tuition, transportation, everything. They gave me a key assignment on an important project that was on the inside evolution of deploying their new Network Systems Operations Plan (NSOP) for which they eventually received a Malcolm Baldridge Quality Award. In short, they invested a lot of money in me on their behalf to help attain their goals.

    So two-years into the project, I got a job offer from an old boss offering me 50% more money to work for a competitor. Yes, it would have been legal for me to accept that offer. But would it have been ethical? And if I took that, I would have damaged my reputation to get a position of trust and influence in the future. That's why we look closely at a person's work history when hiring.

    People now, especially the current generation of kids getting out of college are all about "just me" and "right now." That level of focus does not lead to long term success. Not for the person or the company. Career management is not a game of checkers. You can't make a couple of jumps and then just say "King me!" Lawyer or no lawyer. It's more like a chess game. The moves and the players are more complex and take more time to plan.

    This philosophy will click with some people and clank with others. Some will get it. Some won't. Most of the time when I have been hired there has been a hand shake agreement between me and the hiring manager about unwritten expectations. Typically like: "Okay, then you are my guy, but I need a commitment from you that you will see this project through." I make the same agreement with the people I hire now. I add to it, "Of course I can't hold you to it legally, but that is my expectation. With it comes my support and recommendation when it's time for you to move up or move on."
    Jan 29 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    Okay. I guess I went ready, fire, aim. Thanks.
    Jan 28 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    pmheindl: It's a normal part of doing business. When I left my last job in semi-conductors. It was in my contract that I would not work for one of their competitors for a period of two years after contract completion. An amount of money to cover that was built into my bonus at the time I signed the contract. That along with an IP agreement were done up front.

    That's just the way it's done at least for the top dogs and best engineers. You have to negotiate all that stuff up front.

    Back when I was with Lucent Technologies, a number of us had to sit through legal depositions because Lucent sued Digital Switch Corporation. One of our directors left Lucent for DSC and was accused of trying to hire away top engineers from Lucent using his inside and private information from Lucent's staffing plan.

    If a top company invests two or three years in you, then yes, they don't want you taking your training and proprietary information off to one of their competitors. Steve Jobs or any good CEO has to be hard nosed and aggressive about keeping that from happening as much as possible.

    When you take a job with company, you have to put your company first, your mission within that company second, your team third, and yourself last. Furthermore if you don't display and communicate this priority in a job interview, you most likely won't get hired to start with.

    If you are at a talent or performance level where you are not negotiating your own contracts, you can try joining a union and try letting them negotiate collectively on the behalf of you and others. But trust me, if you are very good at what you do, then you do not want to have your salary negotiated collectively with others. You want to command a higher salary because you are better. You want to be around long after the other guys have been laid off rather than being cut like a commodity on every business cycle based on seniority alone rather than performance. But at that level, you have to package a fair amount of dedication. loyalty and professionalism along with your skills and talent.

    Look, I am not ranting. I wish you the best. I have just tried to explain some things to you that might could help you have more money to invest.
    Jan 28 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Denny_Chasteen
COMMENTS STATS
697 Comments
627 Likes