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  • Renren Q2 2014: Time To Pull The Plug [View article]
    Rode this loser down from over $14 and finally took my lumps and bailed on the last 700 shares today at $3.44. Only hope would have been that some other company was dumb enough to buy them...good luck with that hope (not a strategy).
    Aug 26, 2014. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Central Bankers To Unwind? [View article]

    As always, another great article. My Sunday reading would not be complete without it.

    Looking forward to meeting you next Saturday here in San Francisco.
    Aug 17, 2014. 11:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From Whole Foods Market [View article]
    Articles like this are laughable. WFM dominates any market that they enter. I live in San Francisco. You can hardly get into the stores. I have several friends that work for the company and they see same store sales continuing to increase.
    Jul 14, 2014. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Is This A Breakout Or Will The Stock Fall Back To $85? [View article]
    Having just returned from China I can confirm Varadharajan's comment. My observations were:
    - Shanghai, Xian, Chongqing, Beijing all have major developments which are virtually at a standstill or were completed in recent years and are vacant.
    - Road and infrastructure projects appeared relatively non-existent after having recently completed the 6th highway ring around Beijing. That being said, China desperately needs more infrastructure given what I understand is a relaxation on the 1 child rule and the ever increasing appetite for personal vehicles.
    - The 3 Gorges Dam project is virtually complete with 9 generators online with capability to serve 70% of the China population. There is still a big demand for coal generated power but that should decrease significantly in the coming years.
    - The biggest active project I witnessed is the bullet train from Hong Kong to mainland China. It is definitely massive with lots of CAT equipment on-site. Other projects - not so much.
    Apr 20, 2014. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Valuation Of Natural Resource Partners L.P. [View article]
    Picked more up at $17.10...missed the $16.80 price this morning. Avg down now to 20.43. Guess will be holding this a while.
    Jan 10, 2014. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cowen cuts oil service and drilling stocks, eyes slower than expected growth [View news story]
    Seriously, what makes Cowen any more credible than Wells who just upgraded the Oil Services Sector
    Jan 7, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Hits $5 On Huge Volume - What's Next? [View article]
    Giovanni, thanks for the article. Given my complete lack of knowledge of the shipping business but got hooked into TEU by an SA article and have regretted it ever since, just curious if the recent moves are indicative of the shipping business overall given the recent run up of TEU. I certainly can't believe it is owned by any hedge funds at $3.42 but could certainly be surprised.
    Dec 29, 2013. 01:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Consumers Open Their Wallets? [View article]
    "you can write to etf at newarc dot com for our free report package or to be added to the (FREE) weekly ETF email list."
    Nov 24, 2013. 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good-Yielding Stocks With A Low Forward P/E Ratio In An Uptrend [View article]
    I would have to agree with MWin as per the obvious resistance at 4.29 on May 6 Close. Would look for a safe entry point at around 3.83.
    Also other factors to consider:

    Phase 1 Score: 4/2
    Volume Ratio 5/30 Day 80.9
    P/E Ratio 13.9
    P/E Relative Ratio 8.9
    Proj EPS 1M Chg CFY 0.0
    EPS Growth 5 Yr 5.2 (declining)
    Company Growth Ratio 1.9
    Acc. Dist Current 68.1 (increasing institutional)
    Cash Flow Growth 5 Yr -212.7 (declining)
    Debt/Equity Ratio 0.8 (1.04B cash / 2.86B debt)
    Insider Trading 0.0
    EPS Rank 56.5
    Price Rank 47
    Group Rank 53
    Phase 2
    F/E Score 2.38
    Estimates 2.75
    Financials 2.00
    Price Pattern 3.00 (uptrend)
    Volatility 3.50 (low)
    Sep 2, 2013. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renren's Recent Earnings Losses Are Simply Growing Pains [View article]
    I certainly hope your estimates prove correct and there is some momentum in RENN. I have held a position since 2011 at an avg cost of $6.74. At a 54% loss to date it is becoming difficult to hold.
    Jul 19, 2013. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Told You Renren Would Beat Earnings: So What Should Investors Do Now? [View article]
    I have held my position in RENN since 2011 at an avg cost of $6.74. Not sure how much longer I can endure this pain.
    Jul 19, 2013. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Top Dow Dogs Chase 9.5% To 16.4% Net Gains For June [View article]
    Well of course hind site is always 20-20. Wish I hadn't believed the group back in Jan when I bought CAT at $94 and everyone had a $117 PT. Guess I will be holding it for a while.
    Jun 19, 2013. 09:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar (CAT -1.4%) slips after Goldman cut its price target to $97 and reduced 2013-15 estimates by 10% earlier today. The firm cites soft mining capex and limited cyclical upside in its core Power Systems markets for the lower numbers. [View news story]
    Quite frankly I think the Goldman folks actually fell asleep after the first 5 minutes of the JP Morgan conference. If you listen to the replay which is available at you would hear a pretty compelling message from Mike DeWalt.

    A narrow focus on the Mining sector of their business ignores the other 2/3 (Construction, Power Systems) which in Mike's words are "doing well". In fact he actually says that the Power Systems part of the business is "stable and growing".

    Some quick points I took from the replay -
    - CAT products used for Oil and Gas production and transmission (specifically gas compression) is going up
    - CAT products used in Heavy Construction are benefiting from the better health of State and Local governments.
    - 65% of CAT Operating costs are variable
    - CAT Senior Management opinion for the biggest risk facing profits is "cost structure and execution".
    - Demand for construction equipment does not have a long backlog and they have not seen any reduction in order trending.
    - CAT is actively engaged in a program to reduce lead times with a focus on changes in sourcing.

    Any additional pullback in the price of CAT just gives me more reason to add to my position.
    Jun 5, 2013. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Structural Change In The Mobile Processor Marketplace: Intel Wins; ARM, AMD Lose [View article]
    Arnold, Thanks for the great article. I have been looking for some glimmer of data to put some money on INTC. Just for due diligence I pushed the article to someone who is still at INTC for validation - here is his reply:

    "I do agree with what he said. And I read another blog saying that the new intel Silvermont is going to blow all of the competition. The lower power and faster processor are public information. There are benchmark to prove the reality of this. What we don't know is whether ARM has a secret recipe that they have been hiding from the public. This guy knows process technology pretty well, and he is right about if ARM is staying with the current FET technology, it's not going to be able to compete with Intel. It took Intel 2-3 years to catch up to this point. And if ARM is behind, it will take them another 2-3 years to catch up. It just doesn't happen in 3 months.

    And once this is proven to be the lowest power, highest performance processors in the industry, most of the phone/tablet will switch they CPU to intel. Because this means you can make a faster and longer battery life phone and tablet."

    Keep it coming - I am now long on INTC
    May 22, 2013. 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment