sammyg123

Payrolls Drop - And You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet

Perhaps it is best to be realistic, taking into account what the data means. If indeed we are in a recession, it would be realistic to expect about 14 months of job losses reported, as that was the average for all of the recessions that Kathy mentions in her article. Given that economies go through boom and bust cycles, the numbers suggest to me that we are in a bust cycle. Judging by the size of the dotcom bubble compared to subprime crisis, it is not illogical to suppose that a bear market will follow.

So, it shouldn't be a surprise, or even a disappointment, when job numbers are negative. It should be expected. There are ways to hedge your portfolio during times like these, from mutual funds, to ETFs. They work.

I appreciate this article because it allows me to judge where we are in this market. It takes a certain amount of intellectual bravery to tell people what they don't want to hear. It takes more bravery to confront the things that you don't want to believe, and then accept them. The facts are what they are, so caveat emptor.

As for me, I am long SIJ, BEARX, GDX, and V, and am mostly in a cash position. I'll be adding to my SIJ and BEARX on rallies. I'll be selling them on the dips.