sammyg123

97 Comments

    • ON: Sat Jun 14th 18:40 PM
      Commented on:
      Fed Tightening and the Gold Market
      Higher interest rates make gold less attractive. The end.
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    • ON: Fri Apr 11th 06:25 AM
      Commented on:
      "Reluctant Banks" Let Defaulted Borrowers Stay in Homes
      Silly liberals, finance is for capitalists.
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    • ON: Sat Apr 5th 03:43 AM
      Commented on:
      Growing Pains in Store for US, China and Southeast Asia
      Enzio is from the US. He is also pretty early with his work. I would use what he writes in a strategic way, but make tactical decisions yourself. He is right, by the way.
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    • ON: Sat Apr 5th 03:05 AM
      Commented on:
      "Reluctant Banks" Let Defaulted Borrowers Stay in Homes
      By ignoring foreclosures, banks are giving homeowners incentives to not pay their bills. By hampering the foreclosure process, courts are giving homeowners incentives to not pay their bills. Under normal circumstances, this should mean that financials are good short candidates here. However, due to the Fed's resolve to save banks and brokerages, this process is going to get dragged out, prolonging economic stagnation and possibly the recession.

      Moral hazard rules the day. I suppose that even those who can afford to make their payments will no longer do so, now. It's almost like the circumstances and the law are telling us that housing is free. I guess we have a socialized housing system now. Yipes.
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    • ON: Fri Apr 4th 10:44 AM
      Commented on:
      Payrolls Drop - And You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet
      Perhaps it is best to be realistic, taking into account what the data means. If indeed we are in a recession, it would be realistic to expect about 14 months of job losses reported, as that was the average for all of the recessions that Kathy mentions in her article. Given that economies go through boom and bust cycles, the numbers suggest to me that we are in a bust cycle. Judging by the size of the dotcom bubble compared to subprime crisis, it is not illogical to suppose that a bear market will follow.

      So, it shouldn't be a surprise, or even a disappointment, when job numbers are negative. It should be expected. There are ways to hedge your portfolio during times like these, from mutual funds, to ETFs. They work.

      I appreciate this article because it allows me to judge where we are in this market. It takes a certain amount of intellectual bravery to tell people what they don't want to hear. It takes more bravery to confront the things that you don't want to believe, and then accept them. The facts are what they are, so caveat emptor.

      As for me, I am long SIJ, BEARX, GDX, and V, and am mostly in a cash position. I'll be adding to my SIJ and BEARX on rallies. I'll be selling them on the dips.
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    • ON: Thu Apr 3rd 01:34 AM
      Commented on:
      Gold's Short-Term Uptrend is Broken
      I agree with the article. We still have to go through the "return to normal," fear, capitulation, and despair psychological phases before we return to the mean.
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    • ON: Tue Apr 1st 04:30 AM
      Commented on:
      Bill Gross: If Housing Prices Decline Further, So Does the Economy
      I think that the American taxpayer deserves more than being shouldered with bailing out those who are already charging them interest. I really dislike the idea of answers to the problem coming in the form of government regulation, however, it seems that us humans have a tendency to do what is not against the laws on our books regardless of ethical considerations. Super, us taxpayers have more than one way to bail out Wall Street.

      Perhaps it would be best for the market participants who created the credit crunch for us to shoulder the burden? Perhaps if they are punished for it, they won't do it again? Perhaps we shouldn't bail them out.

      Economics, of course, has to do with how humans pursue incentives. I'd like to see less incentives to moral hazard. No bailouts.
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    • ON: Tue Apr 1st 02:27 AM
      Commented on:
      ProShares Ultra and UltraShort Sector ETFs: Does 2 = 2?
      Yeah. These are good vehicles for short term plays for sure.
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    • ON: Mon Mar 31st 01:02 AM
      Commented on:
      Goldman: Total Leveraged Credit Losses = $1.2 Trillion
      Goldman's actions reflect it's views. Goldman went short subprimes in August 2007, and heavily at that. History might judge this move as being that which started the unwinding, and thus Goldman is the smartest student in the class. I think it would be best to see if Goldman is or has been short other CDS classes, or how the firms' trading reflects this view. I wouldn't put it past Goldman to say one thing and then do another. It's par for the course in the industry, naturally.

      Regardless of Goldman's views, I have to think that with banks and financial institutions' reluctance to lend, that this will further lead to some friction in all businesses which rely on bank lending to monetize their contracts. This tells me that the cost of business is going up, and the pace of business will slow by some degree. Financial institutions will want to fill the loss breaches with fresh profits, if they can, so they'll charge more. Ultimately, we all will finance the bailout, either by taxes or by increased lending rates, or both.
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    • ON: Mon Mar 31st 00:49 AM
      Commented on:
      Lehman: Man Bites Dog Latest
      It's funny that Lehman is accusing another securities firm of fraud. I have heard that it is dangerous to throw stones when you live in a glass house. I have also noticed that blame is used to cover one's own blemishes. Most US financial institutions are highly leveraged, including Lehman. Lehman's book is most like Bear Stearns, and they are in trouble, just like many other US financial firms. So, regardless of the lawsuit's merit, it is likely that this is a PR move to distract attention away from fundamental issues. Don't forget that we have a right to free speech in America. Politicians lie, business leaders lie, and so does everybody else. However, the truth is that Lehman is in the same trouble in which all derivatives laden securities firms are. There is no hiding this, in spite of the PR chaff that they are throwing off with this lawsuit business. 250 million dollars is chump change compared to losses thus far, as well as projections for loss increases. I have no position in Lehman, long or short. It's bailout time, so Lehman just might make it through this. This irks me, because I believe in creative destruction.
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    • ON: Sun Mar 30th 00:39 AM
      Commented on:
      Read It Here First: Illogical Home Sellers
      The advice that is given in this is found in the articles that Barry references at the bottom. I highly recommend reading both of the articles How Easily Can Your Brain Be Fooled? and The Psychology Behind Common Investor Mistakes. That advice is quite free, and it is the most important kind, because it shows how we, as investors, are limited by nature in making investment decisions, whether to buy or to sell. Barry is simply pointing out that home sellers face the same irrationalities that other investors have when it comes to the psychology of investment.
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    • ON: Fri Mar 28th 04:24 AM
      Commented on:
      Crises Averted, Not Crises Solved
      I agree. However, to the Fed's credit, they influenced market psychology positively. It is best to get through the crisis with faith that it will end. Kudos to the Fed. Now, as for the next bout of bad news....
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    • ON: Thu Mar 27th 07:49 AM
      Commented on:
      Who Is Surprised by Economic Data? (Part II)
      Here's another good article that supports what Barry is saying. It also speaks of what a recovery might look like from this. The credit markets are still frozen, as shown by the withdrawal of the clear channel deal. Banks unwilling to lend means less economic activity. The numbers shouldn't be surprising.

      www.kitco.com/ind/Nadl...
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    • ON: Thu Mar 27th 03:39 AM
      Commented on:
      Why Commodities Are Likely to Struggle in 2008
      Correction: In order to stimulate demand more supply is required. Oops. In order to meet rising demand - more supply is required to keep prices stable. My bad.
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    • ON: Thu Mar 27th 03:36 AM
      Commented on:
      Why Commodities Are Likely to Struggle in 2008
      Part of the Fed's job is to fight inflation, which should register in costs of production. The rise in commodities prices, including oil, which is like oxygen to industrial production, will contribute recessionary pressure. Decreased consumer demand due to higher prices is additional recessionary pressure. In order to stimulate demand, more commodity supply is required. The oil situation, when it comes to supply, looks pretty bleak. OPEC is a monopoly with little interest in lower prices, by definition. While the price of oil will fluctuate, it's not really a free market. Higher oil price is with us, and that stifles growth. Further, the price of oil affects prices throughout most supply chains, including the production of soft commodities, such as wheat, corn and soy, etc. This supports higher prices in these markets. I think the price of oil is of the primary oil here, and we are heading into summer. I expect commodities will fluctuate, but the overall trend seems fundamentally supported. I think bulls and bears will fight it out over an overall rising trend.
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