sammyg123's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/120038/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/81233-fed-tightening-and-the-gold-market?source=feed#comment-185655 185655 Sat, 14 Jun 2008 18:40:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71236-reluctant-banks-let-defaulted-borrowers-stay-in-homes?source=feed#comment-148805 148805 Fri, 11 Apr 2008 06:25:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71042-growing-pains-in-store-for-us-china-and-southeast-asia?source=feed#comment-136894 136894 Sat, 05 Apr 2008 03:43:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71236-reluctant-banks-let-defaulted-borrowers-stay-in-homes?source=feed#comment-136892 136892
Moral hazard rules the day. I suppose that even those who can afford to make their payments will no longer do so, now. It's almost like the circumstances and the law are telling us that housing is free. I guess we have a socialized housing system now. Yipes.]]> Sat, 05 Apr 2008 03:05:04 -0400
Moral hazard rules the day. I suppose that even those who can afford to make their payments will no longer do so, now. It's almost like the circumstances and the law are telling us that housing is free. I guess we have a socialized housing system now. Yipes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71219-payrolls-drop-and-you-ain-t-seen-nothin-yet?source=feed#comment-136517 136517
So, it shouldn't be a surprise, or even a disappointment, when job numbers are negative. It should be expected. There are ways to hedge your portfolio during times like these, from mutual funds, to ETFs. They work.

I appreciate this article because it allows me to judge where we are in this market. It takes a certain amount of intellectual bravery to tell people what they don't want to hear. It takes more bravery to confront the things that you don't want to believe, and then accept them. The facts are what they are, so caveat emptor.

As for me, I am long SIJ, BEARX, GDX, and V, and am mostly in a cash position. I'll be adding to my SIJ and BEARX on rallies. I'll be selling them on the dips. ]]> Fri, 04 Apr 2008 10:44:39 -0400
So, it shouldn't be a surprise, or even a disappointment, when job numbers are negative. It should be expected. There are ways to hedge your portfolio during times like these, from mutual funds, to ETFs. They work.

I appreciate this article because it allows me to judge where we are in this market. It takes a certain amount of intellectual bravery to tell people what they don't want to hear. It takes more bravery to confront the things that you don't want to believe, and then accept them. The facts are what they are, so caveat emptor.

As for me, I am long SIJ, BEARX, GDX, and V, and am mostly in a cash position. I'll be adding to my SIJ and BEARX on rallies. I'll be selling them on the dips. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70794-gold-s-short-term-uptrend-is-broken?source=feed#comment-135748 135748 Thu, 03 Apr 2008 01:34:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70654-bill-gross-if-housing-prices-decline-further-so-does-the-economy?source=feed#comment-134458 134458
Perhaps it would be best for the market participants who created the credit crunch for us to shoulder the burden? Perhaps if they are punished for it, they won't do it again? Perhaps we shouldn't bail them out.

Economics, of course, has to do with how humans pursue incentives. I'd like to see less incentives to moral hazard. No bailouts. ]]> Tue, 01 Apr 2008 04:30:53 -0400
Perhaps it would be best for the market participants who created the credit crunch for us to shoulder the burden? Perhaps if they are punished for it, they won't do it again? Perhaps we shouldn't bail them out.

Economics, of course, has to do with how humans pursue incentives. I'd like to see less incentives to moral hazard. No bailouts. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70585-proshares-ultra-and-ultrashort-sector-etfs-does-2-2?source=feed#comment-134438 134438 Tue, 01 Apr 2008 02:27:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70428-goldman-total-leveraged-credit-losses-1-2-trillion?source=feed#comment-133902 133902
Regardless of Goldman's views, I have to think that with banks and financial institutions' reluctance to lend, that this will further lead to some friction in all businesses which rely on bank lending to monetize their contracts. This tells me that the cost of business is going up, and the pace of business will slow by some degree. Financial institutions will want to fill the loss breaches with fresh profits, if they can, so they'll charge more. Ultimately, we all will finance the bailout, either by taxes or by increased lending rates, or both.]]> Mon, 31 Mar 2008 01:02:56 -0400
Regardless of Goldman's views, I have to think that with banks and financial institutions' reluctance to lend, that this will further lead to some friction in all businesses which rely on bank lending to monetize their contracts. This tells me that the cost of business is going up, and the pace of business will slow by some degree. Financial institutions will want to fill the loss breaches with fresh profits, if they can, so they'll charge more. Ultimately, we all will finance the bailout, either by taxes or by increased lending rates, or both.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70425-lehman-man-bites-dog-latest?source=feed#comment-133898 133898 Mon, 31 Mar 2008 00:49:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70318-read-it-here-first-illogical-home-sellers?source=feed#comment-133548 133548 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 00:39:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70307-crises-averted-not-crises-solved?source=feed#comment-132836 132836 Fri, 28 Mar 2008 04:24:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70147-who-is-surprised-by-economic-data-part-ii?source=feed#comment-132275 132275
www.kitco.com/ind/Nadl...]]> Thu, 27 Mar 2008 07:49:42 -0400
www.kitco.com/ind/Nadl...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70034-why-commodities-are-likely-to-struggle-in-2008?source=feed#comment-132237 132237 Thu, 27 Mar 2008 03:39:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70034-why-commodities-are-likely-to-struggle-in-2008?source=feed#comment-132236 132236 Thu, 27 Mar 2008 03:36:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69852-how-counter-productive-is-realtor-association-spin?source=feed#comment-131636 131636 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 05:32:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69565-investing-in-a-post-fact-society-a-k-a-were-the-good-times-a-mirage?source=feed#comment-131117 131117 Tue, 25 Mar 2008 09:50:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69565-investing-in-a-post-fact-society-a-k-a-were-the-good-times-a-mirage?source=feed#comment-131112 131112 Tue, 25 Mar 2008 09:45:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69568-good-advice-during-turbulent-times?source=feed#comment-131107 131107 Tue, 25 Mar 2008 09:40:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69768-bailout-nation?source=feed#comment-131100 131100 Tue, 25 Mar 2008 09:34:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69603-what-a-week-for-financials-and-precious-metals?source=feed#comment-130513 130513 Mon, 24 Mar 2008 07:38:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69530-will-credit-market-flight-to-safety-boost-stock-prices?source=feed#comment-130511 130511 Mon, 24 Mar 2008 07:30:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69530-will-credit-market-flight-to-safety-boost-stock-prices?source=feed#comment-130510 130510 Mon, 24 Mar 2008 07:25:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69564-who-is-to-blame-for-bear-stearns-demise?source=feed#comment-130509 130509 Mon, 24 Mar 2008 07:17:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69564-who-is-to-blame-for-bear-stearns-demise?source=feed#comment-130484 130484 Mon, 24 Mar 2008 03:40:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69530-will-credit-market-flight-to-safety-boost-stock-prices?source=feed#comment-130211 130211 Sun, 23 Mar 2008 07:10:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69047-the-coming-crash-of-2008-a-result-of-overleveraging?source=feed#comment-130199 130199
Obama's message is disconnected from geopolitical realities. He will destroy our country, IMHO.

Barta, this is a financial website. Silly socialists, finance is for capitalists.]]> Sun, 23 Mar 2008 03:16:17 -0400
Obama's message is disconnected from geopolitical realities. He will destroy our country, IMHO.

Barta, this is a financial website. Silly socialists, finance is for capitalists.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69527-the-liquidity-trap-cometh?source=feed#comment-130188 130188 Sun, 23 Mar 2008 01:19:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69527-the-liquidity-trap-cometh?source=feed#comment-130187 130187 Sun, 23 Mar 2008 01:04:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69527-the-liquidity-trap-cometh?source=feed#comment-130185 130185
What the author is saying reflects what the media is calling the "credit crunch." The problem is not that banks can't lend to each other due to lack of liquidity. The liquidity is there, it's just that they WON'T lend to each other unless there is some "juice" for them in the loan. That's what he's trying to show.

Another good indicator of fear is the VIX. It's not really that smart to go long if the VIX is over 15, unless you are trading. Right now, I believe, the VIX is over 23, even with the big market rally last week. You can look at the vix as an oscillator, buying TRADING positions when the VIX is over 30, and selling them as the VIX drops back into the mid to low 20's. The VIX has called the trading bottoms almost every time when it is above the 30's.

Until the VIX is down below 15, or at least below 20, then I am afraid the rallies that we are seeing are only bull traps. This is the kind of activity that we see in bear markets, which from my lowly perch, we are firmly emplaced.

I agree with the posters that say we have at least one if not two more major moves to new lows. The technical damage if the Dow breaks below about 12700 isn't pretty. Capitulation will occur when the Dow closes below approximately that point. Dow theorists, please feel free to step in and fill in the gaps of my thinking here, but from what I understand, just about every average except the Dow is down over 20% thus far. When the Dow confirms the bear market, I believe that capitulation will have occured, and we'll be able to establish the bear market low.

The engineered bottom that we saw last week, and the following rallies, are not going to hold. The macroeconomics just don't support a recovery at this time. When the TED spread narrows substantially, banks will be in the process of providing liquidity to businesses and each other, and economic activity will increase, as will profits. Until then, if banks won't even lend to each other, there is nothing to get excited about in this market unless you are a bear.

]]> Sun, 23 Mar 2008 00:56:58 -0400
What the author is saying reflects what the media is calling the "credit crunch." The problem is not that banks can't lend to each other due to lack of liquidity. The liquidity is there, it's just that they WON'T lend to each other unless there is some "juice" for them in the loan. That's what he's trying to show.

Another good indicator of fear is the VIX. It's not really that smart to go long if the VIX is over 15, unless you are trading. Right now, I believe, the VIX is over 23, even with the big market rally last week. You can look at the vix as an oscillator, buying TRADING positions when the VIX is over 30, and selling them as the VIX drops back into the mid to low 20's. The VIX has called the trading bottoms almost every time when it is above the 30's.

Until the VIX is down below 15, or at least below 20, then I am afraid the rallies that we are seeing are only bull traps. This is the kind of activity that we see in bear markets, which from my lowly perch, we are firmly emplaced.

I agree with the posters that say we have at least one if not two more major moves to new lows. The technical damage if the Dow breaks below about 12700 isn't pretty. Capitulation will occur when the Dow closes below approximately that point. Dow theorists, please feel free to step in and fill in the gaps of my thinking here, but from what I understand, just about every average except the Dow is down over 20% thus far. When the Dow confirms the bear market, I believe that capitulation will have occured, and we'll be able to establish the bear market low.

The engineered bottom that we saw last week, and the following rallies, are not going to hold. The macroeconomics just don't support a recovery at this time. When the TED spread narrows substantially, banks will be in the process of providing liquidity to businesses and each other, and economic activity will increase, as will profits. Until then, if banks won't even lend to each other, there is nothing to get excited about in this market unless you are a bear.

]]>