sammyg123

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    • Wed Mar 26th 05:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Counter-Productive Is Realtor Association Spin?
      NOTE FROM SA EDITORS: THIS COMMENT HAS BEEN REMOVED DUE TO ABUSE. THE COMMENTER IS ON WATCH TO HAVE COMMENT PRIVILEGES REMOVED.
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    • Tue Mar 25th 09:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investing in a Post-Fact Society (a/k/a Were the Good Times a Mirage?)
      And yes, Barry, I think we are going to be saddled with truthiness and hacks for a long time. No offense, Tony, but Barry says accurately in this article that us human beings have trouble confronting reality. You can shoot-up on bullish mantras all you like to get yourself through this, but I say no to drugs.
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    • Tue Mar 25th 09:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investing in a Post-Fact Society (a/k/a Were the Good Times a Mirage?)
      Yada yada yada Tony. Can you stop chanting like a buddhist monk? Your thoughts are not original, everybody already knows this stuff. It is not helpful. Cheerleading is fine...but self promotion isn't. I've seen the same post from you so many times....it's really sad. Do you even read Barry's articles?
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    • Tue Mar 25th 09:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Good Advice During Turbulent Times
      Sometimes the negatives are true. They too shall pass, but not soon. This rally is window dressing, IMHO.
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    • Tue Mar 25th 09:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bailout Nation
      Tony has been asleep for 50 years. Don't wake him up. :)
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    • Mon Mar 24th 07:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What a Week for Financials and Precious Metals
      Option market seems to think GDX moves into the 50's by May. Perhaps this is a little optimistic? I suppose gold bullion stabilizes in the 900's, this might happen.
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    • Mon Mar 24th 07:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Credit Market Flight to Safety Boost Stock Prices?
      As if the narrative about the relationship between treasuries and stocks was a permanent truth. The truth is that markets go to extremes. Isn't the debt market, including treasuries, a huge bubble right now? Won't that bubble pop will pop after a major washout in the stock market, and the reality of inflation sets in? Won't the Fed will have to raise interest rates, causing further damage in the treasury market? Are these events primary in nature, determining the direction of subordinate markets?
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    • Mon Mar 24th 07:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Credit Market Flight to Safety Boost Stock Prices?
      Tony, some day you will be right. I hope you are patient.
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    • Mon Mar 24th 07:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Who Is to Blame for Bear Stearns' Demise?
      Seems like the legal community might have some answers for the HR issues. Management has deep pockets, and probably would like to avoid legal problems right now. They will certainly be looking after their interests, so do what you must.
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    • Mon Mar 24th 03:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Who Is to Blame for Bear Stearns' Demise?
      Is anybody surprised at the option activity with BSC now that NYT reports today that Bear is trying to pawn itself for 10 bucks/share instead of 2? So much for the bond holder plot...
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    • Sun Mar 23rd 07:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Credit Market Flight to Safety Boost Stock Prices?
      My investment horizon doesn't span 100 years. I am concerned about the next 12 months. Soprano posts worthless drivel that is far removed from reality in many places. I suppose if we keep repeating bullish mantras eventually it will be ok, right?
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    • Sun Mar 23rd 03:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Coming Crash of 2008: A Result of Overleveraging
      Thomas Barta writes as if he is on Obama's payroll. He also writes as if our global competitive edge will be magically restored if we withdraw from Iraq. Chaos in Iraq sends oil and gold through the roof, and withdrawal at this point in time would send oil well past $150, given that terrorism undermines oil security. This in turn will mean inflation in the United States, given our dependency on petroleum products in manufacturing and transporting virtually everything we make. Obama's pre-mature withdrawal strategy is an economic disaster to pile on top of the problems we already have. Further, he is a demagogue, and if economic horrors is his idea of "change," then I'd much prefer the status quo. Hegemons thrive with the status quo, so I guess what he is saying is that we need to no longer be the most powerful country in the world, because that will be good for the economy?

      Obama's message is disconnected from geopolitical realities. He will destroy our country, IMHO.

      Barta, this is a financial website. Silly socialists, finance is for capitalists.
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    • Sun Mar 23rd 01:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Liquidity Trap Cometh
      Correction: I meant to write that banks aren't a good place to invest. Oops.
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    • Sun Mar 23rd 01:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Liquidity Trap Cometh
      The TED spread narrows when the economy is in good condition. It widens when banks fear to lend to each other. If the banks fear to lend to each other, then the banks are a good place to invest. The TED spread is telling us that banks aren't sure they'll get their money back if they lend, which is telling you and me that there should be some more bank failures, and brokerage failures in the short to intermediate term.
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    • Sun Mar 23rd 00:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Liquidity Trap Cometh
      Quote from the article for Eric: "And Paul Krugman sends us to the TED spread--the risk and liquidity premium big banks are demanding over Treasuries for the loans they make to each other."

      What the author is saying reflects what the media is calling the "credit crunch." The problem is not that banks can't lend to each other due to lack of liquidity. The liquidity is there, it's just that they WON'T lend to each other unless there is some "juice" for them in the loan. That's what he's trying to show.

      Another good indicator of fear is the VIX. It's not really that smart to go long if the VIX is over 15, unless you are trading. Right now, I believe, the VIX is over 23, even with the big market rally last week. You can look at the vix as an oscillator, buying TRADING positions when the VIX is over 30, and selling them as the VIX drops back into the mid to low 20's. The VIX has called the trading bottoms almost every time when it is above the 30's.

      Until the VIX is down below 15, or at least below 20, then I am afraid the rallies that we are seeing are only bull traps. This is the kind of activity that we see in bear markets, which from my lowly perch, we are firmly emplaced.

      I agree with the posters that say we have at least one if not two more major moves to new lows. The technical damage if the Dow breaks below about 12700 isn't pretty. Capitulation will occur when the Dow closes below approximately that point. Dow theorists, please feel free to step in and fill in the gaps of my thinking here, but from what I understand, just about every average except the Dow is down over 20% thus far. When the Dow confirms the bear market, I believe that capitulation will have occured, and we'll be able to establish the bear market low.

      The engineered bottom that we saw last week, and the following rallies, are not going to hold. The macroeconomics just don't support a recovery at this time. When the TED spread narrows substantially, banks will be in the process of providing liquidity to businesses and each other, and economic activity will increase, as will profits. Until then, if banks won't even lend to each other, there is nothing to get excited about in this market unless you are a bear.

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