sammyg123

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    • Fri Mar 21st 05:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Global Precious Metals Correction: Healthy and Overdue
      Quote from article: "Short positions in COMEX gold and silver have kept rising through the latest record advances. Who are those "investors" that can afford to short such markets without running into serious margin calls?

      Secular bull markets do end. They also have corrections. It's hard to be convinced that the fundamentals, at this point, have really changed, however, maybe they will change, and those with more foresight than you or me have made their move and we are fools to keep our precious metals holdings in the short term.

      As for me, I am not convinced that our economy is about to recover, and I am not convinced that the markets will either in the near term.

      I expect there will be volatility in both directions. It does seem that the trend is broken in gold, so maybe it is best to accumulate, getting sample prices over the next few months.

      I doubt your assessment that gold will reach 1200 by spring. I wouldn't mind if you were right though.

      Gold and silver producers take short positions to lock in prices for their production. They can take short positions because this is the mechanism by which they deliver supply to the market. It's how they lock in profits. That's the "investors" with short positions, along with speculators who know more that we do, or are extremely lucky. Anyway, the futures markets are there for producers and consumers of the commodity, mostly. So, there's my semantic victory for the day - I object to your use of "investors with short positions." It is misleading, and lends credit to the Ben Steins in the world who think that traders like you and me control markets. Sometimes, it's actually supply and demand for the real commodity that sets the price. Go ahead, accuse me of naivete.

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    • Fri Mar 21st 05:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Alan Greenspan Loses His Mind
      Lamenting the past is like....not wanting to deal with reality. Let's look forward. The crisis is what it is.
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    • Fri Mar 21st 04:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Alan Greenspan Loses His Mind
      I certainly don't envy Greenspan's former position as Fed chair. Putting all of the blame on Greenspan for the housing bubble is like describing an iceberg by its tip. What about the millions of morons who got sold ARMs without being able to handle the adjusted payment? They are not children, and it is just as much their fault. What about the scumbag salesmen who unloaded that stuff on the market? Their fault, too. Yes, monetary policy got the ball rolling, but if you see everybody jumping off a bridge, does that mean you have to, as well?
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    • Thu Mar 20th 02:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Citi: Break It Up! Break It Up!
      Citi has a castle, but no real moat. With that much capital focussed in one place, it's hard to see how Citi is more competitive, particularly with their poor decision making with respect to their derivatives market participation. I agree, break it up. Let individual units build competitive strength independently. That would do a favor for the shareholders. My only regret is that we would be putting more money into the hands of middle eastern investors, who tend to funnel cash to terrorists.
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    • Thu Mar 20th 02:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Bust Blame Game
      It's hard for populist politicians to promise material gains for the body politic when housing values are crashing, the Fed is inflating, and inflation rears its ugly head. It looks pretty good for whoever is in power, though, when the economy is doing well. I love it when people attribute strong economies to presidents or congresses. It's so far out of their control, from what I can see. They can only make things worse, or just stay out of it and let things take their natural course. Clinton was great though - he made doing nothing, or doing Lewinsky, into strong economic policy. Smart.
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    • Wed Mar 19th 07:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investors Throw on Rose Colored Lenses Following Fed Cut
      There's money to be made on both sides of this, for sure.
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    • Wed Mar 19th 06:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Explaining Bear Stearns' Current $7 Price
      I think it is also worth considering that BSC shareholders would like a better price than 2 bucks. I think of the JPM deal as a put on BSC. BSC can move higher, and should, especially if another buyer emerges. Perhaps it doesn't seem like the vultures are circling right now, but those vultures might also be buying the stock as well. A savvy liquidator might get shareholders and bondholders what they want. JPM just put in a floor price, as liquidator of last resort. Time will tell if another suitor comes around. Jimmy Cayne is crossing his fingers, assuredly, while playing bridge.
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    • Wed Mar 19th 06:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are These "Once In A Lifetime" Moves?
      Purl Gurl thinks she is smart. She is fooled by randomness.
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    • Wed Mar 19th 06:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It Wasn't a 'Bailout'
      Excellent. Get your tin hats out everyone. It's not an economic crisis....it's a conspiracy. Insert spooky music here.
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    • Tue Mar 18th 11:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Not Enough Bullish Sentiment?
      I agree with Barry and the above comment. There's a lot of money seeking assets out there, especially with prospects of intractable real inflation on our doorsteps. Bear markets have sporadic, but powerful rallies in them. There are a few events this week that tell me that we can rally - Fed cuts, Visa IPO, Lehman's survival, and GS's less than expected losses. There is more bad news out there to shake sentiment, but the bulls have the ball right now. The fight isn't over between bulls and bears, and I expect volatility, in both directions. This seems like a trader's market. Is ambivalence king?
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    • Tue Mar 18th 10:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fed Will Do What It Takes To Push Bear Deal Through
      BSC shareholders can and should sue for a dear that is more fair to equity holders. In the end, BSC needs to go away though.
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    • Tue Mar 18th 07:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jim Rogers on the Bear Stearns Bailout
      Bernanke is slow on the trigger. I doubt he'll be seen as the greatest central banker. Let's just hope for now that he's the right man for the job, and let history be as is...
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    • Tue Mar 18th 01:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Did JP Morgan Overpay For Bear Stearns?
      What purpose would it have served to "save" BSC anyway. Their liquidation is a good thing, and offers the chance that the derivatives/credit deadlock can be loosened. As money is raised to unwind the derivatives mess, things will start to get better. Banks will trust each other enough to lend. Perhaps more firms need to get liquidated to help unwind the derivatives mess?

      I'm not happy about companies going under. I am less happy about what these companies did to our economy, and how that has forced the fed to cut interest rates and devalue our currency. I'd like what little currency I have to be worth something. I worked for it, as I am sure everyone else has worked for theirs. So, if we have to liquidate some poorly run companies that were parties to the problem, so be it, if that means somewhere down the road, the USD will trade at parity with the Euro.
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    • Tue Mar 18th 01:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bearish Bloggers Too Optimistic!
      No glee intended - I am not happy about what is going on with our economy. The fact is that financial corporations threw ethics and prudence out the window, and now you, Soprano, and I, sammyg123, have to foot the bill with a weaker dollar. Everything that we worked for, which is valued in dollars, is basically worth less, unless you own gold, silver, commodities, and are short stock indexes. Nothing lasts forever, but I think this bear market is going to feel like it.

      As for the black swan event, I think I have that concept down pretty well. Taleb argues that RISK isn't distributed along the gaussian bell curve in just a part of the book. The basic thrust of his argument, with which I agree, is basically that bad and good sh&t happens, and it is impossible to predict due to the fact that our tiny little human minds can only handle and analyze a limited amount of information at a given time.

      Bullish dogmatists, such as our respected Soprano, are like turkeys being fed. They expect to be fed regularly. Then Thanksgiving comes, and at dinner time, they get "chopped." Taleb saw this in his career. The majority of desk traders that he worked with were "turkeys," so to speak. Their pattern of success reinforced their own beliefs and they became ignorant of the things that ended up destroying their careers as traders. That's why I think that dogma serves no purpose. Permanent long positions have risk that no one can see or predict. Short positions are even more risky most of the time.

      I see the argument that going long seems smart since everything is so cheap. I just think that things are not cheap enough. I'll be a bull later, when the economy rights itself. That's a long time from now, IMHO.

      Talib outlasted all of his coworkers in the markets, with substandard returns in good years, but monster returns during the crises. Personally, I am sure we all want the best of both. This might be impossible.

      Black Swan is an excellent book and I highly recommend it. Taleb's other book, fooled by randomness, is also excellent.


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    • Mon Mar 17th 11:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Two Dollars per Share, or an "Orderly Liquidation"?
      Plenty of bubbles to burst out there, that is for sure. However, now's our time. Bear markets last for years, and this one very well could as well. From 2000-2002, the Nasdaq lost 40%. The problems now are more serious than the dotcom era. We have more downside to go.
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