sammyg123

Total Rating:
0 / 0

97 Comments

    • Mon Mar 17th 05:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buying Bear's HQ
      America isn't stocks. America isn't a company. America isn't the stock market, and America isn't the bond market. Markets are markets. They go up and down.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 17th 05:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buying Bear's HQ
      Selling markets short isn't selling America short. It's speculating, and perfectly American to do so.

      Soprano, there is more to investing than just buying and holding. Sometimes, to actually make a profit, you have to take it, otherwise, the gains are just on paper, leaving you holding the hot potato.

      Give credit where credit is due - this isn't the first day that Barry has written about the credit crisis. Those of us who were given brains and ears by God listened and saw the truth. Some went short, some went to cash.

      Those without ears and brains stayed long, and are hurting. Now, buy and hold just doesn't work. Sometimes, it's most logical to sell short. Logic is what it is. The truth is what it is.

      America will make it out of this, but there is more selling to be done before this is over, and no amount of bleating patriotically (and yes I am a patriot) isn't going to change that.

      If you want to find those who aren't patriots, look at those who have destroyed our financial system, like Bear Stearns. They are the ones who sold your precious dollar down 20% so far in a year, and more to come.

      You can thank Bear Stearns, and all others involved in the credit crunch/mortgage crisis/etc for selling America short. Don't blame us if we can see the market going down and decide to trade based on that.

      Good luck Soprano. Cash just isn't a bad idea right now. Opportunities for shorts and longs will show themselves if you have eyes to see, ears to listen...etc.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 17th 05:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bad News for Bear Shareholders Is Good News for the Markets
      Creative destruction is what this market needs. The financial system is broken and needs to be unwound. It's really best for the future. All over-leveraged financial institutions that created the economic crisis must be unwound so that capitalism can take its course. Right now, any government intervention will at best just slow this process down, which makes the market more predictable and prevents all of these financial institutions from going under at the same time. I admire the Fed for at least trying to keep all financial markets from freezing. Orderly liquidation is kind of important, because that way, even though this economic crisis is as bad or worse than anything we have ever seen, at least the market isn't totally crashing. It's just a bear market so far.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 17th 04:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Morgan's the Big Winner; Lehman in Trouble As Well?
      I pray that Lehman goes under. They deserve it, and they are no better than BSC. Any firm that takes no that level of credit risk and created this economic problem for the rest of us deserves what it gets. Lehman's management won't suffer, but they will be properly shamed. They'll move on, while our dollars buy 20% less today than they did last year. Their management will make it out of this with lots of money, nice houses, and nice lives. They just don't deserve the honor of operating in the financial markets, so if their clients all run and withdraw, well, too bad for Lehman. Time for them to pass on as a footnote in financial history. We'll bury Lehman next to Pig-Bear Stearns.

      It's really for the best in the end. They'll be liquidated, counterparty liabilities will be unwound. This is our way out of the credit crunch, and eventually, we can expect the Fed to fight the inflation that has been caused as a result of their moral hazard.

      We'll get over Pig-Bear Stears, and we'll get over Lehman, Merrill, and the rest.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 17th 04:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bear Stearns Sold for an Embarrassing $236m
      This is a step in the right direction. Now, BSC's assets can be liquidated, and those funds can be used to pay BSC's counterparty risk. The great unwinding has begun, and this is the only way we are going to get to the bottom. There is a huge bubble in the bond markets, corporate, and treasuries. This bubble can't pop until the credit markets unfreeze. The credit markets can unfreeze once these counterparty risks are unwound. The unwinding has begun, and we can only hope that JPM knows BSC's book to the point that they can unwind BSC and liquidate it quickly. We can only hope.

      Anyway, Pig Bear Stearns deserves it's embarrassingly low place in financial history. It is a firm that has been riddled with criminality since the beginning. Perhaps one thinks that they aren't "necessarily criminals." However, clearly, they have operated outside of ethics, which means they are....criminals. Even if they didn't break securities laws, they certainly screwed their customers and shareholders.

      They have gotten their just deserves. Justice isn't pretty sometimes, and we are all paying the price for what they, other brokerages, banks, and financial entities have created. As these errant financial institutions are destroyed, perhaps we'll be able to build a more stable and effective financial system.

      We can only hope.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 17th 00:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      JP Morgan To Buy Bear Stearns For $2/Share
      Bear Stearns was a PIG, and they deserve what they got. JP Morgan stepped in an picked up BSC at close to it's par value! They were generous to give them 2 dollars a share. BSC has always been unethical, and so they are reaping it. I can't wait to see the pink slips coming in for management. I am sure there are a few good people there, at BSC, but I am not shedding a tear. This is a good thing, and JPM did us all a favor by wiping that clump off the history books. Bravo! Bravo! Bravo!
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 12:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Implications of the Bear Stearns Bailout
      Mr. Miller, it is ignorant to just skip over prices on the front lines of life, like gasoline, milk, flour, eggs - all of these things are rising every month. CPI data collection discipline is flawed and lags badly. It's just a fact. Commodities prices, across the board, don't lie. Inflation is here, regardless of the CPI. The question is, what will the Fed do after it's done saving the pigs like Bear Stearns, as if BSC is the last shoe to drop? How will they be able to dig us out of inflation? It's going to be painful. That's what the stock market is trying to price in right now, along with whatever financial implosion happens next. Reality bites, but it is best to stick with it.

      That being said, rallies will happen as we grind lower. Bulls and bears eat, but Pig Bear Stearns is slaughtered. I shed no tears for them. It's their own damn fault.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 10:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      CPI: 2008 vs. 1980
      I guess prices don't lie. You can also just watch prices at the grocery store.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 10:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      CPI: 2008 vs. 1980
      I suppose another way to measure inflation is in the price of gold and commodities.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 10:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bailout's Pathetic - Here's Who To Blame
      Okpulot Taha of the Choctaw Nation, I certainly have my issues with Wall Street, as you do, but I detect a shrillness in your rhetoric which smacks of glee. You think Wall Street managers won't recover from this? They will, and that is the sad part. You will still probably be driving your rust bucket when they have already traded in a few of their Mercedes' for the latest greatest models. The fact is they aren't being punished, nor will they be. Watch for severance packages at Bear Stearns. They'll probably be larger than what we both will make in our lifetimes. They will be paid in spite of the crisis that they have brought on OUR shoulders, for which WE will pay. Apparently, WE are paying them with some taxpayer money, too, since the Fed is propping up their balance sheet to make sure the BSC's stock doesn't trade for it's par value of 1 cent.

      Anyway, your rants are amusing. Hope you like mine. :)
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 06:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bear Necessities: Law of the Jungle Rules
      Bear was a pig, and pigs get slaughtered. It's about time the brokers got hit like this. It's a terrible industry, and very poorly regulated. It's chaotic, greed motivated, and with little or no enforceable ethical standards. Our finance industry has morphed into a wealth transfer mechanism to take money from others. Sometimes, it actually helps businesses grow and creates jobs, but those days are long gone. We, the regular folk, are paying a terrible price for their misdeeds..
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 00:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Did the Fed's Move Prevent a Stock Market Panic?
      Soprano - as for underestimating America, we have to consider our overestimation of the fiat currency system and the financial mechanisms that are used for wealth transfer in the capitalist system. Currently, our system allows for what is essentially stealing. Currenlty, our bankers and investment institutions are able to act without restriction and create situations where our financial markets freeze and the ripple effects cause an economic downturn. That is the reality of it. Worse, these banks are essentially subsidized institutions, because when they fail, they get bailed out by the government. This stuff happens in fiat currency systems. Government regulation won't solve it. A currency system that is backed by a valuable commodity does. So, never underestimate the powers of greed, never underestimate the weakness of a fiat currency system, and never underestimate the damage of systemic risk. God Bless America. However, we are in trouble here and our leadership, which thinks that injecting liquidity is the answer, isn't solving banks' unwillingness to lend. So they are pumping more money into a system that is unwilling to lend that money. You see, the financial institutions are just trying to stabilize their balance sheets, not take on more credit risk through lending. So, the answer isn't more liquidity, it is just to let banks who have mismanaged themselves collapse, and get consumed by more able and ethical survivors. Perhaps we will see the end of this, but it won't be this summer.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 00:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Did the Fed's Move Prevent a Stock Market Panic?
      BSC needs to be taken apart and sold off as quickly as possible. All severance packages must be seized and returned to the taxpayer. No stock options, no bonuses. Let rich i.b. management have a taste of what their financial malfeasance has caused everybody else. If they aren't taught a lesson now, then we are destined to see this garbage again.
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 15th 10:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Rally is Coming: Always Buy Too Soon
      Yeah. The Fed and the government are just super when it comes to getting the economy right. Their intentions are right, but government isn't the answer on this one. There is a systemic risk issue here that printing money won't solve, and nor will any regulation, unless we can go back in time and make derivatives and subprime mortages illegal.

      So, buy the dip, right? Well, how far does this dip go down? I suspect we'll find the bottom sometime after a few more Bear Stearns shoes drop, and yes there will be more. Dogma developed from historical statistics doesn't predict the fallout from the subprime/credit crunch/financial institution failure spiral of doom. We don't know where it stops, and we are not in the last innning.

      So, I'm not buying the dips, I am covering my short sales. And, when the economic situation improves, I'll know. It will be after the Fed raises interest rates to control inflation, gets inflation under control, and then starts cutting rates. We are looking at a terrible market for two years, unless you really know how to trade.

      It's a trader's market. In these environments, stocks are just not where to be. When in an inflationary market, commodities (hard and soft), oil, and precious metals work. Bond yields are effectively negative, corporate profit margins are under pressure due to inflation - standard investments are not happy places right now.

      Read Black Swan, by Nicholas Nassem Talib, and you'll see that what we are in is a real crisis, with a long tail of consequences which are not positive in the short term. Know the risk before you get in. It's tough to know how deep the risk rabbit hole is right now.

      Good trading.
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 15th 08:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bearish Bloggers Too Optimistic!
      Soprano - Kass is ambivalent, not neutral. What he means by this, as I understand it, is that there is money to be made long and short. He is VERY bearish about the intermediate term, and his polemics against the Fed and monetary policy is harsh indeed. Kass knows we are at the verge of a black swan event - meaning, and major once in a lifetime terrible financial problem that will have a big tail. That means this will last a long time.

      The Fed's answer thus far has been to inflate us out of the mess, and that means that what value we have stored in dollars is going to depreciate. Unsurprisingly, the price of commodities and precious metals has gone up - best to use dollars when you can buy something with them. Exports have also increased, due to cheaper American goods. Meanwhile, what we earn buys less, and the financial system is putting a strain on corporate profits and the ability of state and local governments to get financing via auctioning their debt. All of these bode negatively for the economy, and for the stock market. The only way out is creative destruction - the companies holding toxic debt must be destroyed. Bear Stearns is the first victim, and there will be others.

      As the shoes drop, and the economic situation deteriorates, which is inevitable, it makes little sense to be buying stock assets that are most likely to depreciate, especially in the face of rising inflation at stores near you. Bear Stearns will be dismantled, and people will lose their jobs. Other financial institutions will suffer the same, just like the mortgage lenders who closed their doors and sent their employees to the street.

      Meanwhile, low interest rates are putting upward pressure on inflation. Inflation is a problem that is difficult for the fed to contain, and results from tight monetary policy have a long lag time. Interest rates must be ratched up at some point, and if we weren't in a financial crisis, that is what the fed would be doing, as other central banks in Europe have done. By the time the fed gets around to it, it may be necessary to make a much greater increase to get inflation under control. Rising interest rates will then eat further into corporate profits, as the prime rate increases and what banks are left take a bigger chunk in exchange for lending.

      You can debate this all you like, but there is only one reality, and it is bigger, and worse, than what I have described. There is hope at the end of the tunnel, but we are going to have to live through some tough times here. Perhaps you are lucky, and wealthy, and don't have to worry about it. I really hope so.
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»