sammyg123

Goldman: Total Leveraged Credit Losses = $1.2 Trillion

Goldman's actions reflect it's views. Goldman went short subprimes in August 2007, and heavily at that. History might judge this move as being that which started the unwinding, and thus Goldman is the smartest student in the class. I think it would be best to see if Goldman is or has been short other CDS classes, or how the firms' trading reflects this view. I wouldn't put it past Goldman to say one thing and then do another. It's par for the course in the industry, naturally.

Regardless of Goldman's views, I have to think that with banks and financial institutions' reluctance to lend, that this will further lead to some friction in all businesses which rely on bank lending to monetize their contracts. This tells me that the cost of business is going up, and the pace of business will slow by some degree. Financial institutions will want to fill the loss breaches with fresh profits, if they can, so they'll charge more. Ultimately, we all will finance the bailout, either by taxes or by increased lending rates, or both.

What a Week for Financials and Precious Metals

Option market seems to think GDX moves into the 50's by May. Perhaps this is a little optimistic? I suppose gold bullion stabilizes in the 900's, this might happen.

Are These "Once In A Lifetime" Moves?

Purl Gurl thinks she is smart. She is fooled by randomness.

Two Dollars per Share, or an "Orderly Liquidation"?

Plenty of bubbles to burst out there, that is for sure. However, now's our time. Bear markets last for years, and this one very well could as well. From 2000-2002, the Nasdaq lost 40%. The problems now are more serious than the dotcom era. We have more downside to go.

Two Dollars per Share, or an "Orderly Liquidation"?

Bernanke & Co. are smart guys, but there are many forces in play that are outside of their control. Looking to the government for answers here, as if they can take public funds and just prop up the market, is not realistic. There is more bad news in the market place coming. 5 years from now, though, Soprano, you'll look like a genius.

Two Dollars per Share, or an "Orderly Liquidation"?

If you must forecast, then forecast often. Eventually, Soprano, you will be right.

Two Dollars per Share, or an "Orderly Liquidation"?

And, I guess Joseph Lewis, the billionaire who bought 6% of BSC needed the tax write off.

Two Dollars per Share, or an "Orderly Liquidation"?

Lehman is going to scramble like mad to not be bought out for $1.99, the same cost, as it turns out, as the gland slam breakfast at Denny's. I'm not sure that the JPM's breakfast, BSC, is going to be digested all that well, but all's well that end's well. It's not a bad thing that these financial institutions are going to go under. It just means that the derivatives mess will be unwound. Counterparty obligations will be paid. Trust will be restored, somewhere down the road.