sammyg123

Investors Throw on Rose Colored Lenses Following Fed Cut

There's money to be made on both sides of this, for sure.

The Rally is Coming: Always Buy Too Soon

Yeah. The Fed and the government are just super when it comes to getting the economy right. Their intentions are right, but government isn't the answer on this one. There is a systemic risk issue here that printing money won't solve, and nor will any regulation, unless we can go back in time and make derivatives and subprime mortages illegal.

So, buy the dip, right? Well, how far does this dip go down? I suspect we'll find the bottom sometime after a few more Bear Stearns shoes drop, and yes there will be more. Dogma developed from historical statistics doesn't predict the fallout from the subprime/credit crunch/financial institution failure spiral of doom. We don't know where it stops, and we are not in the last innning.

So, I'm not buying the dips, I am covering my short sales. And, when the economic situation improves, I'll know. It will be after the Fed raises interest rates to control inflation, gets inflation under control, and then starts cutting rates. We are looking at a terrible market for two years, unless you really know how to trade.

It's a trader's market. In these environments, stocks are just not where to be. When in an inflationary market, commodities (hard and soft), oil, and precious metals work. Bond yields are effectively negative, corporate profit margins are under pressure due to inflation - standard investments are not happy places right now.

Read Black Swan, by Nicholas Nassem Talib, and you'll see that what we are in is a real crisis, with a long tail of consequences which are not positive in the short term. Know the risk before you get in. It's tough to know how deep the risk rabbit hole is right now.

Good trading.

Markets Look Set Up for an Ugly Fall

Who cares what his headline is. Look at the technical analysis he did. It's very good. He's also right. What, do you think his choice of headlines is going to change the markets? It's just an analysis, and a damn good one at that. Silly bulls, the fundamentals aren't good right now. That's why the market sold off. Fundamentals change, of course, so you'll have your day. Take your frustration out on those who caused the financial crisis, like quants and their derivatives ponzi scheme that has brought our financial system to the brink, endangering the savings of even those who have nothing to do with the investment markets. You want to get angry, you want fundamentals - then write a letter to congress and make sure they allow the free market to fix their problem, and to get the heck out of the way. Now, there's a good reason to get your blood pressure up.