sammyg123

Growing Pains in Store for US, China and Southeast Asia

Enzio is from the US. He is also pretty early with his work. I would use what he writes in a strategic way, but make tactical decisions yourself. He is right, by the way.

Payrolls Drop - And You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet

Perhaps it is best to be realistic, taking into account what the data means. If indeed we are in a recession, it would be realistic to expect about 14 months of job losses reported, as that was the average for all of the recessions that Kathy mentions in her article. Given that economies go through boom and bust cycles, the numbers suggest to me that we are in a bust cycle. Judging by the size of the dotcom bubble compared to subprime crisis, it is not illogical to suppose that a bear market will follow.

So, it shouldn't be a surprise, or even a disappointment, when job numbers are negative. It should be expected. There are ways to hedge your portfolio during times like these, from mutual funds, to ETFs. They work.

I appreciate this article because it allows me to judge where we are in this market. It takes a certain amount of intellectual bravery to tell people what they don't want to hear. It takes more bravery to confront the things that you don't want to believe, and then accept them. The facts are what they are, so caveat emptor.

As for me, I am long SIJ, BEARX, GDX, and V, and am mostly in a cash position. I'll be adding to my SIJ and BEARX on rallies. I'll be selling them on the dips.

Will Credit Market Flight to Safety Boost Stock Prices?

As if the narrative about the relationship between treasuries and stocks was a permanent truth. The truth is that markets go to extremes. Isn't the debt market, including treasuries, a huge bubble right now? Won't that bubble pop will pop after a major washout in the stock market, and the reality of inflation sets in? Won't the Fed will have to raise interest rates, causing further damage in the treasury market? Are these events primary in nature, determining the direction of subordinate markets?

Will Credit Market Flight to Safety Boost Stock Prices?

Tony, some day you will be right. I hope you are patient.

Will Credit Market Flight to Safety Boost Stock Prices?

My investment horizon doesn't span 100 years. I am concerned about the next 12 months. Soprano posts worthless drivel that is far removed from reality in many places. I suppose if we keep repeating bullish mantras eventually it will be ok, right?

Investors Throw on Rose Colored Lenses Following Fed Cut

There's money to be made on both sides of this, for sure.

The Rally is Coming: Always Buy Too Soon

Yeah. The Fed and the government are just super when it comes to getting the economy right. Their intentions are right, but government isn't the answer on this one. There is a systemic risk issue here that printing money won't solve, and nor will any regulation, unless we can go back in time and make derivatives and subprime mortages illegal.

So, buy the dip, right? Well, how far does this dip go down? I suspect we'll find the bottom sometime after a few more Bear Stearns shoes drop, and yes there will be more. Dogma developed from historical statistics doesn't predict the fallout from the subprime/credit crunch/financial institution failure spiral of doom. We don't know where it stops, and we are not in the last innning.

So, I'm not buying the dips, I am covering my short sales. And, when the economic situation improves, I'll know. It will be after the Fed raises interest rates to control inflation, gets inflation under control, and then starts cutting rates. We are looking at a terrible market for two years, unless you really know how to trade.

It's a trader's market. In these environments, stocks are just not where to be. When in an inflationary market, commodities (hard and soft), oil, and precious metals work. Bond yields are effectively negative, corporate profit margins are under pressure due to inflation - standard investments are not happy places right now.

Read Black Swan, by Nicholas Nassem Talib, and you'll see that what we are in is a real crisis, with a long tail of consequences which are not positive in the short term. Know the risk before you get in. It's tough to know how deep the risk rabbit hole is right now.

Good trading.

Markets Look Set Up for an Ugly Fall

Who cares what his headline is. Look at the technical analysis he did. It's very good. He's also right. What, do you think his choice of headlines is going to change the markets? It's just an analysis, and a damn good one at that. Silly bulls, the fundamentals aren't good right now. That's why the market sold off. Fundamentals change, of course, so you'll have your day. Take your frustration out on those who caused the financial crisis, like quants and their derivatives ponzi scheme that has brought our financial system to the brink, endangering the savings of even those who have nothing to do with the investment markets. You want to get angry, you want fundamentals - then write a letter to congress and make sure they allow the free market to fix their problem, and to get the heck out of the way. Now, there's a good reason to get your blood pressure up.

Lost Decade for Stocks?

And as for pinning down Usama Bin Laden, have a look at the map of Afghanistan some time. I think it's obvious that he Osama wasn't pinned down - he got away.

Lost Decade for Stocks?

Thanks for all of your kind responses. I don't think that we are in debt because of the Iraq war, or just because of it. The vast majority of our debt comes from unbridled government spending, and I lay that at the doorstep of congress and our President. I like our President's nerve and I agree with the Iraq War, regardless of the cost. I don't agree with his spending program, but I think he compromised with congress and agreed to their spending as long as they also spent on the Iraq War. This was a mistake, but understandable. Our President's main responsibility, according to the constitution, is to conduct our foreign affairs. You may not like his attitude in foreign affairs, but he did show strength to our enemies. Al-Qaeda, and all of its relative and associated groups, only understand strength. I shudder at the thought of some amateur coming to run our country, who wants to "talk" with the people who murder our citizens. Of course they want to talk, and they will continue using violence to intimidate us as we "negotiate" with them. That's the way these "people" work.

Anyway, thanks again for reading what I wrote. Sorry about being so long winded.

Lost Decade for Stocks?

The cost for the war in Iraq is a drop in the bucket compared to our GDP, and will cost less than the subprime crisis and credit crunch when all is said and done. Potential losses from the subprime crisis could be over a trillion dollars according to some. So, if you want to complain, then look no further than institutional financial irresponsibility and moral hazard.

The war in Iraq costs about 100 billion per year. This is a lot of money, of course, however, at least there is something to be gained out of the Iraq war. It is arguable that risking a few hundred billion to improve the status quo in the world order is worth it for the US, as we are the hegemon. Of course, things may not get better, and it may turn out the the Iraq war was folly and not worth it at all.

Regardless of economics and stock market profits and lossess, I revere our soldiers' sacrifices in Iraq, and I sincerely hope that their sacrifices were not in vain. So, let's leave the Iraq war out of it. War is the cost of a country's business, and such things are pursued towards furthering a nation's interests.

If you think that the nation's interests are less important than a stock's PE ratio, or the balance of your investment account, then perhaps it would be best to simply anticipate market moves based on your convictions, and let history decide what is right or wrong. Let the pentagon do it's job. Yes, it will cost us, but I'd rather we preserve our hegemonic status and enjoy the fruits of that then surrender to head-chopping cave-men who worship blood.

I would give all of my money up if it meant that my country and my family are safe for generations to come. If that means our recession lasts a little longer, SO BE IT. It's a small price to pay as long as we remain free, and under OUR RULE OF LAW, not theirs. If you think things are bad now, just wait until you start paying taxes to practice Christianity or Judaism to the head-chopping Islamo-fascists. Don't believe in God? OK, well, then you don't have to pay religious taxes. They just kill those kinds of infidels.

The war in Iraq, dear friends, puts the fight in the middle-east, where it belongs. Better that than war in our streets. Concerned about your house price? Well, terrorist acts are not good for real estate prices, that is for sure. Remember, there are soldiers out there fighting to make sure that our way of life, including our economy, has a future in this world.

The stock market, and all investing, is subordinate to global stability. If you don't believe that, then have a look at the price of gold and oil. It's pretty easy to assess that as global instability increases due to our "friends" in the middle east, the higher prices for these two commodities will go. This global instability will continue whether we withdraw from Iraq or not. If we are successful in Iraq, stability will return to Iraq, and spread throughout the middle east. Figure it out for yourselves. Either we fight them where they live and win, or they will fight you where you live and you personally will lose. That's just a cold fact. Success in Iraq means "stability" dividends, to which your precious stock market will respond quite kindly.

Of course, there are those dogmatists who believe that the war in Iraq "is all about oil." Wrong. It's all about global stability in general. Perhaps you think that we created instability in Iraq? Oh, ok, well, then research Saddam's financing of Fedayin Saddam - his international terrorist group financed with oil money. If you think Al Qaeda is bad, then imagine a better trained, better financed state terror group and what they could accomplish with rich Saddam's financial support! International affairs is a complex business, and decisions to go to war, regardless of the WMD market, are complex and involve thinking over time periods that span generations. Investors concerned with profits must take this into account when they make investment decisions. If you can't see the ramifications and inevitable consequences of globally strategic moves, then I am afraid that you are swimming in dangerous water when it comes to finance. I pray that history will show the decision to go to war in Iraq was correct. If you or I end up losing money because of bad investment decisions based on our limited understanding of global events and their consequences in the financial markets, well, then, too bad for us. Cry me a river, or learn from it. These financial catastrophes that we see today are not the last. Just be thankful that someone, somewhere, is trying to protect our way of life. Read "Black Swan" by Nicholas Nassem Talib, and learn from a genius.

Here's a question: What the next inevitable crisis? How should you position your "investments" based on this? Instead of crying about the Iraq war, prepare yourself for the next shoe to drop. It will definitely drop. Wars will happen, financial crises happen - these things are bigger than us all. Sit and point fingers all you like, or move on, adjust, improvise, and exploit.

Or, continue to be baby and blame everything on Bush and the Iraq war. Silly liberals, finance is for capitalists.

Greenspan's Latest: Oil Boom Will Likely 'Go on Forever'

I think the main point is to understand the positive and negative ramifications of fed policies, and use them to your advantage. The ethics of the issue, as to whether it is right or wrong to raise or lower interest rates at a given time, who will benefit and how.....well, I am afraid that our access to that type of information is limited. Supposedly, everybody looks at the same data, but it is the analysis of the data and one's actions that are the to trading profits and right economic behavior. Whatever anybody may think of Alan Greenspan, he was at the Fed's helm for a very long time, and there have been worse Fed chiefs. He is one of the world's most talented economic forecasters - it's how he got the job as Fed chief in the first place. If he says that the oil boom will go on forever, you can go right ahead and cut down his choice of words and their meanings, or you can understand the idea that he is trying to get across and why he said it. I am not a defender of the man, I don't know him, and he doesn't feed my family. I am very sure that he isn't the biggest fan of the Saudis, though, and I am sure that it's not something he said to make friends. Perhaps he just wanted to spur them to increasing output by making them feel confident in the current and future price of oil? Now, what does increased supply do the price of oil?

6 Reasons the Market Should Bounce Here

I can't believe your article actually made it to the front page of seekingalpha. You realize that stock markets around the world are selling off, and that Dow futures are down 514 as I write this, don't you? You are talking bounce here and the market is crashing. Yipes.