johnthebear's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/120040/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/149116-game-over-cit?source=feed#comment-590065 590065
You have it right... no unions involved,

so low down, cheap politics if you ask me!

Looks like a bad time ahead for IYR.]]> Thu, 16 Jul 2009 03:41:58 -0400
You have it right... no unions involved,

so low down, cheap politics if you ask me!

Looks like a bad time ahead for IYR.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142738-are-markets-decoupling-and-how-would-we-know?source=feed#comment-542754 542754 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 15:42:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133127-the-coming-depression-in-commercial-real-estate?source=feed#comment-480267 480267
If that happens as I expect it will, almost all of the biggest banks will require extra capital to survive.

This means that lending capacity to aid REIT's short term cash needs will not be available. Look for more huge stock sales of REIT's so that dividends can be paid.

Look for IYR to take a big hit, even at this low level.

off-balance sheet items Definition | Business Dictionaries from AllBusiness.com

The Murky World of Off-Balance-Sheet Items (Part 3) -- Seeking Alpha

PEU Report: Off Balance Sheet Items: Big for Banks

Does anyone have a clue of what "OFF BALANCE SHEET" items means? Bloomberg reports that the range is from $700-900 Billion dollars!!!

I remember ENRON had a lot of "off balance sheet items that the public did not know existed, which led to it's dramatic death.

The stress test is supposed to require these items to be revealed to the public and they expect most of the 19 banks to need more capital!

Looks like a busy week ahead trying to unlock this story.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 23:23:47 -0400
If that happens as I expect it will, almost all of the biggest banks will require extra capital to survive.

This means that lending capacity to aid REIT's short term cash needs will not be available. Look for more huge stock sales of REIT's so that dividends can be paid.

Look for IYR to take a big hit, even at this low level.

off-balance sheet items Definition | Business Dictionaries from AllBusiness.com

The Murky World of Off-Balance-Sheet Items (Part 3) -- Seeking Alpha

PEU Report: Off Balance Sheet Items: Big for Banks

Does anyone have a clue of what "OFF BALANCE SHEET" items means? Bloomberg reports that the range is from $700-900 Billion dollars!!!

I remember ENRON had a lot of "off balance sheet items that the public did not know existed, which led to it's dramatic death.

The stress test is supposed to require these items to be revealed to the public and they expect most of the 19 banks to need more capital!

Looks like a busy week ahead trying to unlock this story.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132285-open-letter-to-sec-wall-street-s-reit-bait-and-switch?source=feed#comment-475171 475171
It is clear that capitalization rates have more than doubled on commercial real estate from the glory years of 2005-2007, yet none of the loss in market value seems to reflected in annual reports or the financial press. It seems to me that the huge sale of stock we are now seeing is only to raise cash that can be paid out in dividends.

WILL THERE EVER BE MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING OF REAL ESTATE PROPERTY VALUES?

Talk about a HUGE PONZI SCHEME!

Time for the SEC to investigate and not keep sweeping this scandal under the rug.]]> Thu, 23 Apr 2009 23:01:54 -0400
It is clear that capitalization rates have more than doubled on commercial real estate from the glory years of 2005-2007, yet none of the loss in market value seems to reflected in annual reports or the financial press. It seems to me that the huge sale of stock we are now seeing is only to raise cash that can be paid out in dividends.

WILL THERE EVER BE MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING OF REAL ESTATE PROPERTY VALUES?

Talk about a HUGE PONZI SCHEME!

Time for the SEC to investigate and not keep sweeping this scandal under the rug.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132001-office-reit-outlook-still-bleak?source=feed#comment-471970 471970
Capitalization rates are rising significantly and commercial property values are falling. Is there anything the investor can do to learn the true nature of their real estate investments?]]> Tue, 21 Apr 2009 21:27:49 -0400
Capitalization rates are rising significantly and commercial property values are falling. Is there anything the investor can do to learn the true nature of their real estate investments?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102302-extreme-cdo-leverage-to-create-another-deleveraging-storm?source=feed#comment-350391 350391 Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:37:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111171-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-350382 350382
Thanks again for your superfine charts. They are a big help to me.]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:28:23 -0500
Thanks again for your superfine charts. They are a big help to me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111306-ultrashort-real-estate-drop-demonstrates-unlimited-faith-in-a-recovery?source=feed#comment-350364 350364
I have asked this question several times, but no one seems to know.

I am shifting from SRS to buying calls on SRS. The high volatility should pay off with an even bigger multiplier, if I am right. I bought $75 strike Feb 09 calls and hope for the best. Right after I bought my calls the price of IYR dropped below $50 and my calls dropped from $6.5 to $4! Boy, this is a rough game! ]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:00:44 -0500
I have asked this question several times, but no one seems to know.

I am shifting from SRS to buying calls on SRS. The high volatility should pay off with an even bigger multiplier, if I am right. I bought $75 strike Feb 09 calls and hope for the best. Right after I bought my calls the price of IYR dropped below $50 and my calls dropped from $6.5 to $4! Boy, this is a rough game! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108558-china-isn-8217-t-losing-its-competitive-edge?source=feed#comment-318152 318152 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:04:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/102971-china-is-domestic-demand-rising-or-declining?source=feed#comment-294823 294823
Earnings and a bottom on the home price decline seem more important than interest rates at this point in time. It is hard to understand the logic for the market being up today.

I like the idea of making new low interest 30 year mortgages available to qualified buyers, but do not like the idea of bailing out mortgages to those that had no business buying a house in the first place.

It seems that the US led the world into the crisis and it will not end until the US is able to slow the drop of residential real estate prices, which will be tough to do if unemployment starts rising sharply.

Waiting in the wings is the problem of overvalued commercial real estate which will hit the financial press in the next few months. How to find financing for buyers looking to buy real estate with huge loans of failing REITs and hedge funds will be a monster of a problem, and could long delay the turn around, both for US as well as China. ]]> Thu, 30 Oct 2008 23:30:02 -0400
Earnings and a bottom on the home price decline seem more important than interest rates at this point in time. It is hard to understand the logic for the market being up today.

I like the idea of making new low interest 30 year mortgages available to qualified buyers, but do not like the idea of bailing out mortgages to those that had no business buying a house in the first place.

It seems that the US led the world into the crisis and it will not end until the US is able to slow the drop of residential real estate prices, which will be tough to do if unemployment starts rising sharply.

Waiting in the wings is the problem of overvalued commercial real estate which will hit the financial press in the next few months. How to find financing for buyers looking to buy real estate with huge loans of failing REITs and hedge funds will be a monster of a problem, and could long delay the turn around, both for US as well as China. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100320-bespoke-s-international-market-snapshot?source=feed#comment-284338 284338 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 08:18:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99902-historical-bull-and-bear-markets-for-the-dow-1900-present?source=feed#comment-282588 282588
I suspect that the 2000-2003 bear will be short in comparison with this financial disaster since the basic financial system remained sound, world wide. Not so this time.

Now we have to recover with badly wounded banking system, looking over it's shoulders at regulators trying to make sure every loan is justified. Good thought, and necessary in view of the abuse in Congress and with powerful corruption caused by Acorn along with Feddie and Fannie.

Now, lenders are crippled with shortage of qualified employees to make loans, review appraisals and process the loans. Also, I cannot foresee a return to the securitization of mortgages any time soon, so lenders that make the loans will probably have to live with them for the duration. Maybe 10 years from now there may be something similar, but hopefully with strong regulation.]]> Tue, 14 Oct 2008 23:12:27 -0400
I suspect that the 2000-2003 bear will be short in comparison with this financial disaster since the basic financial system remained sound, world wide. Not so this time.

Now we have to recover with badly wounded banking system, looking over it's shoulders at regulators trying to make sure every loan is justified. Good thought, and necessary in view of the abuse in Congress and with powerful corruption caused by Acorn along with Feddie and Fannie.

Now, lenders are crippled with shortage of qualified employees to make loans, review appraisals and process the loans. Also, I cannot foresee a return to the securitization of mortgages any time soon, so lenders that make the loans will probably have to live with them for the duration. Maybe 10 years from now there may be something similar, but hopefully with strong regulation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99745-tuesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-282570 282570
FXI moved down today, but FXP barely moved. Any idea why this happened or how FXP climbed to 219 just before the close on October 9th while FXI moved to 24.31? I am heavily invested in FXP and it looks to me like the gap on FXI at 28.38 should fill soon. But, will FXP give the appropriate move up?

SRS and IYR are moving as expected with the 2:1 ratio.

Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.]]> Tue, 14 Oct 2008 22:24:44 -0400
FXI moved down today, but FXP barely moved. Any idea why this happened or how FXP climbed to 219 just before the close on October 9th while FXI moved to 24.31? I am heavily invested in FXP and it looks to me like the gap on FXI at 28.38 should fill soon. But, will FXP give the appropriate move up?

SRS and IYR are moving as expected with the 2:1 ratio.

Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99369-time-to-pick-up-the-pieces-of-the-global-reit-thud?source=feed#comment-279556 279556 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 22:42:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99142-earnings-preview-general-electric?source=feed#comment-278481 278481
Can we expect an honest report?]]> Fri, 10 Oct 2008 01:03:40 -0400
Can we expect an honest report?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98408-global-liquidity-crisis-what-now?source=feed#comment-273696 273696
Capitalization rates were two low, based on expected appreciation and low interest rates. They will begin to rise with the interest rates and added risk premium due to rising vacancy. Prices of commercial real estate will be falling, as will industrial property with rising unemployment.

This means, that while residential property values may bottom in 2010, there will be a longer delay before commercial real estate will show signs of recovery. New construction might be expected in a more normal recession sponsored by government, but with lower property taxes and failing state governments (CA and NY etc) there is no source of wealth to back up the economy. Then if you really want to get depressed, what will happen as social security tax revenues fall and the system breaks down sooner than expected?

A long bitter road is ahead, better tread carefully.

Might be a that WW III will be needed to end the mess. This could all happen much sooner than you expect. What happens if there is an Iran-Israel war between the time of the election and inaguration? Get right with GOD?]]> Sat, 04 Oct 2008 23:32:50 -0400
Capitalization rates were two low, based on expected appreciation and low interest rates. They will begin to rise with the interest rates and added risk premium due to rising vacancy. Prices of commercial real estate will be falling, as will industrial property with rising unemployment.

This means, that while residential property values may bottom in 2010, there will be a longer delay before commercial real estate will show signs of recovery. New construction might be expected in a more normal recession sponsored by government, but with lower property taxes and failing state governments (CA and NY etc) there is no source of wealth to back up the economy. Then if you really want to get depressed, what will happen as social security tax revenues fall and the system breaks down sooner than expected?

A long bitter road is ahead, better tread carefully.

Might be a that WW III will be needed to end the mess. This could all happen much sooner than you expect. What happens if there is an Iran-Israel war between the time of the election and inaguration? Get right with GOD?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97910-tuesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets-more?source=feed#comment-270323 270323
There can be no change with a "new" president, with the same bunch of FOOLS that got us in the mess.]]> Wed, 01 Oct 2008 09:01:50 -0400
There can be no change with a "new" president, with the same bunch of FOOLS that got us in the mess.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97909-tuesday-outlook-bailout-brouhaha?source=feed#comment-270311 270311
They have it all wrong.

Freeze interest resets from Jan 2008 for 3 years.

To heck with lenders making more money!

Got to stop foreclosures NOW!

Government cannot manage vacant houses!

The "package stinks" and I don't trust Paulson since he was part of the reason we are here with the stupid Fannie-Freddie Fraud beginning in 1995.

All the top democrats, Dodd, Oboman, Frank are at the root of the problem along with Franklin Rains!

How can we trust any of these LIARS?]]> Wed, 01 Oct 2008 08:48:35 -0400
They have it all wrong.

Freeze interest resets from Jan 2008 for 3 years.

To heck with lenders making more money!

Got to stop foreclosures NOW!

Government cannot manage vacant houses!

The "package stinks" and I don't trust Paulson since he was part of the reason we are here with the stupid Fannie-Freddie Fraud beginning in 1995.

All the top democrats, Dodd, Oboman, Frank are at the root of the problem along with Franklin Rains!

How can we trust any of these LIARS?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97734-analogies-to-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-270136 270136
The only problem is that I own SRS and now I am not sure what the effect will be if they ban the mark-to-market rule. Just think, need some appreciation to support more debt, no problem!]]> Tue, 30 Sep 2008 23:21:59 -0400
The only problem is that I own SRS and now I am not sure what the effect will be if they ban the mark-to-market rule. Just think, need some appreciation to support more debt, no problem!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97767-bailout-is-just-the-beginning?source=feed#comment-269531 269531
TNH Terra Nitrogen Co.

EPS $13.95
PE 7.52
YIELD 14.24%

75% of the stock is held by insiders and there is very low trading volume. Yesterday was only 195,000 shares! I own the stock and recommend it.

]]> Tue, 30 Sep 2008 10:26:16 -0400
TNH Terra Nitrogen Co.

EPS $13.95
PE 7.52
YIELD 14.24%

75% of the stock is held by insiders and there is very low trading volume. Yesterday was only 195,000 shares! I own the stock and recommend it.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97695-new-rules-for-chinese-stock-market-investors?source=feed#comment-268191 268191
I am thinking $20? or will it take a little longer?]]> Mon, 29 Sep 2008 04:42:55 -0400
I am thinking $20? or will it take a little longer?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97734-analogies-to-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-268185 268185
Who will bail out the REITs?

There is just not enough money to bail out everyone, especially as unemployment begins to climb. Who in the world will we get to occupy all those offices formerly occupied by Wall Street?

Surely there has to be a better way than what Paulson and the democrats want.

Google "Community Reinvestment Act" and check out the discussion in Wikipedia for clear description of how the mess really started with Freddie and Fannie and who really ruined it for all of us.
]]> Mon, 29 Sep 2008 04:33:09 -0400
Who will bail out the REITs?

There is just not enough money to bail out everyone, especially as unemployment begins to climb. Who in the world will we get to occupy all those offices formerly occupied by Wall Street?

Surely there has to be a better way than what Paulson and the democrats want.

Google "Community Reinvestment Act" and check out the discussion in Wikipedia for clear description of how the mess really started with Freddie and Fannie and who really ruined it for all of us.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97724-paulson-stampedes-congress?source=feed#comment-268176 268176
What you will read will make your blood boil and tell you the truth without political distortion.

There are many other web sites that discuss and analyze the financial failure of Fannie and Freddie. Just take a look with Google. You don't have to take my word for it.

It is amazing that the public is so dumb and easily fooled by the smooth talking oboman.

When we elect him president, he will control 100% of the United States Government. It will not take long before he takes over the Supreme Court by appointing a couple of very young left wing extremist to the court. You can say good bye to everything good about America.

We will look just like Russia, And to think, not a shot was fired! Lord help us, we know not what we do!]]> Mon, 29 Sep 2008 04:18:24 -0400
What you will read will make your blood boil and tell you the truth without political distortion.

There are many other web sites that discuss and analyze the financial failure of Fannie and Freddie. Just take a look with Google. You don't have to take my word for it.

It is amazing that the public is so dumb and easily fooled by the smooth talking oboman.

When we elect him president, he will control 100% of the United States Government. It will not take long before he takes over the Supreme Court by appointing a couple of very young left wing extremist to the court. You can say good bye to everything good about America.

We will look just like Russia, And to think, not a shot was fired! Lord help us, we know not what we do!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97732-can-capitalism-survive-its-latest-entanglement-with-socialism?source=feed#comment-268173 268173
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...


If you are truly interested in why the United States and the rest of the world are possibly heading to a disaster greater than the "Depression" read all about in Wikipedia.

What you will read will make your blood boil and tell you the truth without political distortion.

There are many other web sites that discuss and analyze the financial failure of Fannie and Freddie. Just take a look with Google. You don't have to take my word for it.

Just search for Community_Reinvestment...]]> Mon, 29 Sep 2008 04:06:28 -0400
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...


If you are truly interested in why the United States and the rest of the world are possibly heading to a disaster greater than the "Depression" read all about in Wikipedia.

What you will read will make your blood boil and tell you the truth without political distortion.

There are many other web sites that discuss and analyze the financial failure of Fannie and Freddie. Just take a look with Google. You don't have to take my word for it.

Just search for Community_Reinvestment...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97472-bailout-fever-china-considering-exporter-bailout?source=feed#comment-265788 265788
Looks like it is time for Wall Street to lighten up on their recommendations for China stocks, and FXI. ]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 09:27:48 -0400
Looks like it is time for Wall Street to lighten up on their recommendations for China stocks, and FXI. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97368-china-a-run-on-the-bank-of-east-asia?source=feed#comment-265114 265114
I have invested in puts in FXI and in FXP using ProShares ETF.

I wonder if you have looked at FXP as an investment which is 2:1 bet against FXI? If you have analyzed this investment, could you share your thoughts as to how well this mechanism is working and likely to work in the future as financial strains become more obvious.

So far, the 2:1 ratio is working as advertised, but in view of the exchanges restrictions on shorting, I am wondering what might happen to this and other ProShares funds?

I also own shares in SRS which is the 2:1 inverse of IYR. I have looked at the prospectus which was not available on line when I first invested in both funds. It is complicated and I don't understand them. Any help you could share would be appreciated. Thanks, John]]> Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:14:53 -0400
I have invested in puts in FXI and in FXP using ProShares ETF.

I wonder if you have looked at FXP as an investment which is 2:1 bet against FXI? If you have analyzed this investment, could you share your thoughts as to how well this mechanism is working and likely to work in the future as financial strains become more obvious.

So far, the 2:1 ratio is working as advertised, but in view of the exchanges restrictions on shorting, I am wondering what might happen to this and other ProShares funds?

I also own shares in SRS which is the 2:1 inverse of IYR. I have looked at the prospectus which was not available on line when I first invested in both funds. It is complicated and I don't understand them. Any help you could share would be appreciated. Thanks, John]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96956-commercial-real-estate-loans-may-be-next-shoe-to-drop?source=feed#comment-264306 264306 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 23:05:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96956-commercial-real-estate-loans-may-be-next-shoe-to-drop?source=feed#comment-262691 262691
I just pray that it continues to work in the future as in the past. I am looking for SRS going to $200 in the next 6 months.

As the article reports, many smaller banks will fail with the large volume of commercial loans. There is simply not enough money available to allow buyers to get financing when buildings come on the market, which will happen all over as vacancy increases and foreclosures also increase. Those buildings will be sold at firesale prices!

Looks like we are heading to caves, automatic weapons and canned food for survival! God help us!

Thanks for the article.]]> Tue, 23 Sep 2008 14:06:44 -0400
I just pray that it continues to work in the future as in the past. I am looking for SRS going to $200 in the next 6 months.

As the article reports, many smaller banks will fail with the large volume of commercial loans. There is simply not enough money available to allow buyers to get financing when buildings come on the market, which will happen all over as vacancy increases and foreclosures also increase. Those buildings will be sold at firesale prices!

Looks like we are heading to caves, automatic weapons and canned food for survival! God help us!

Thanks for the article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96846-tuesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-262669 262669
Paulson, you were CEO of Goldman Sachs from 1999 to 2006 yet you did not know the problems that were created by the CDO and securitization of dumb subprime mortgages and the lack of oversight!

His comany was a leader in changing the law in 1999 during Clinton's term that allowed all this crap to happen! How can he claim such ignorance? Are we dumb enough to buy that line?

The lowest quality mortgages were still being written all through Paulson's term.

They have not talked at all about commercial mortgages. They will be marked to market, a cut of 25% or more in lost value. Talk about a huge loss. General Growth Properties REIT fell 25% yesterday because of inability to re-finance it's debt. I hear that McDonald's was denied new financing by Bank of America because of a shortage of capital!

There are many properties that are mortgaged for $1 billion or more! Just think,

700 properties at $1billion each would consume all the money Paulson is seeking!

And now he would include credit cards and student loans!

What in the world does he mean by transparency and oversight? Wait till he spends all $700 Billion taking care of his wall street friends before he informs congress of his strategy?

Oversight should allow review and reports on a weekly basis to Congress, and with the opportunity for congress to disagree with his assessment of what to do. So far, I see no way for Congress to ever take a look at how he is doing!

Looks like we are heading to caves, automatic weapons and canned food for survival! God help us!]]> Tue, 23 Sep 2008 13:48:14 -0400
Paulson, you were CEO of Goldman Sachs from 1999 to 2006 yet you did not know the problems that were created by the CDO and securitization of dumb subprime mortgages and the lack of oversight!

His comany was a leader in changing the law in 1999 during Clinton's term that allowed all this crap to happen! How can he claim such ignorance? Are we dumb enough to buy that line?

The lowest quality mortgages were still being written all through Paulson's term.

They have not talked at all about commercial mortgages. They will be marked to market, a cut of 25% or more in lost value. Talk about a huge loss. General Growth Properties REIT fell 25% yesterday because of inability to re-finance it's debt. I hear that McDonald's was denied new financing by Bank of America because of a shortage of capital!

There are many properties that are mortgaged for $1 billion or more! Just think,

700 properties at $1billion each would consume all the money Paulson is seeking!

And now he would include credit cards and student loans!

What in the world does he mean by transparency and oversight? Wait till he spends all $700 Billion taking care of his wall street friends before he informs congress of his strategy?

Oversight should allow review and reports on a weekly basis to Congress, and with the opportunity for congress to disagree with his assessment of what to do. So far, I see no way for Congress to ever take a look at how he is doing!

Looks like we are heading to caves, automatic weapons and canned food for survival! God help us!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96136-options-trader-thursday-outlook?source=feed#comment-259361 259361 I wish there was a way to understand the mechanics of FXP/SRS, David Fry met with ProShares about a month ago and I asked him to check it out for me, but he has not responded with an answer that I am aware of. So far, it works as advertised.

At least exchange traded funds such as we have are not affected by the new short sell rule on financial's.
]]> Fri, 19 Sep 2008 14:45:30 -0400 I wish there was a way to understand the mechanics of FXP/SRS, David Fry met with ProShares about a month ago and I asked him to check it out for me, but he has not responded with an answer that I am aware of. So far, it works as advertised.

At least exchange traded funds such as we have are not affected by the new short sell rule on financial's.
]]>