johnthebear

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256 Comments

    • Tue May 27th 17:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Did China's Foreign Currency Reserves Grow by $74.5 Billion in April?
      so, what does that mean for FXI over the next six months?

      How will the coming olympics be affected by the earthquake aftermath and the effect on share prices? Will FXI take a serious dive soon, below $100 or will it wait till after the games?

      I would love some answers here!
      View article »
    • Tue May 27th 17:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commercial Real Estate Headed the Way of Residential?
      Don't expect help from Europe, they have overvalued commercial property all over, with cap rates less than 4%, even lower than mortgage rates if you can imagine that! Lots of ding bats running around spending your money. The bigger they are the dumber they are, I always say. Check C or CFC lately? GE is just another one. Makes it tough on honest appraisers when fools rush in. No way to use these properties as honest comparable sales even at the $2.8 billion price.
      View article »
    • Sun May 25th 00:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      REITs: An Update
      Looks like rate cuts are over and the natural supply and demand for capital take over for the near term. That means rising interest rates and cap rates that result in lower values for commercial real estate.

      That is coupled with higher vacancy rates that are becoming more wide spread across the nation. The next earnings period should reveal more problems that will result in lower earnings and higher values for SRS. I am looking for IYR to hit 60 by mid summer which brings SRS to the 120 area.

      I think we will see a lot more efforts by the REITs to sell stock to raise capital to finance more purchases of distressed property. While that may be successful as an investment strategy, the upper revisions of cap rates will surely take a toll on values.. that is if they are honest in marking to market their values at the end of each quarter. I wonder about that. Lets hear your thoughts.
      View article »
    • Fri May 23rd 00:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Homebuilder Earnings Reports and Other Struggles - Housing Tracker
      You may find it interesting, a comment in London:

      "This is the first housing recession that resulted from the inability to get a house financed,

      rather than due to high unemployment or high interest rates."

      House prices tripled in England in the last 10 years, much like many markets here in the US.

      Like the US, they have fired a lot of people working in the home finance area that pushed the paper needed to close the loans. Many thousands of these fine people who had nothing to do with the loan approval process are now walking the street looking for a job. These people are needed to make the mortgage business function, but there are no lenders willing to hire. Lending standards are higher now, appraisals will get more close looks and many appraisers will likewise go without.

      Does not look good for the next few years as unemployment rises and vacancies rise in commercial property.

      I feel sorry for those losing their homes and jobs. I wish I could see a light at the end of the tunnel... instead I can only see the train coming my way and I wonder how to protect my meager retirement benefits. The state pension plan I rely on has been playing the same game as the banks, playing the spreads on interest rates and buying over priced commercial real estate. I hope the folks in my state will agree to a tax increase to cover the unfunded liability of the pension plans. Then there is social security. Sure wish I had control of my investments in SS rather than have the idiots in Washington manage my future. Too bad grand kids, the dems have really fixed it for us and they have no idea how stupid they are and the average American public is even more stupid than the dems that sell this crap.
      View article »
    • Fri May 23rd 00:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing
      You may find it interesting, a comment in London:

      "This is the first housing recession that resulted from the inability to get a house financed,

      rather than due to high unemployment or high interest rates."

      House prices tripled in England in the last 10 years, much like many markets here in the US.

      Like the US, they have fired a lot of people working in the home finance area that pushed the paper needed to close the loans. Many thousands of these fine people who had nothing to do with the loan approval process are now walking the street looking for a job. These people are needed to make the mortgage business function, but there are no lenders willing to hire. Lending standards are higher now, appraisals will get more close looks and many appraisers will likewise go without.

      Does not look good for the next few years as unemployment rises and vacancies rise in commercial property.

      I feel sorry for those losing their homes and jobs. I wish I could see a light at the end of the tunnel... instead I can only see the train coming my way and I wonder how to protect my meager retirement benefits. The state pension plan I rely on has been playing the same game as the banks, playing the spreads on interest rates and buying over priced commercial real estate. I hope the folks in my state will agree to a tax increase to cover the unfunded liability of the pension plans. Then there is social security. Sure wish I had control of my investments in SS rather than have the idiots in Washington manage my future. Too bad grand kids, the dems have really fixed it for us and they have no idea how stupid they are and the American public is even worse.
      View article »
    • Tue May 20th 21:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Commercial Real Estate Falls Sharply in March
      Every where you look, the bulls and politicians look for the tiniest piece of news that might be "better than expectations", even when the market is shouting the "ship is sinking slower" to try make a positive case. IYR is taking a big hit today, and those that say real estate is the place to be because of a prior 4% dividend will be of little comfort when they find a 40% loss of capital.

      It is amazing as well, that with the likely loss of $1 trillion dollars in the global financial system the bulls have not figured out yet that when a multiplier is applied, the loss in lending power by the banking system is of historic proportions. It will be hard for anyone to visualize and forecast the market over the next 5 years.
      View article »
    • Tue May 20th 15:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      OxAn Doubts BoE Claim That Subprime Losses Are Overstated
      drposhmoney, you are dead on in my opinion. Every where you look, the bulls and politicians look for the tiniest piece of news that might be "better than expectations", even when the market is shouting the "ship is sinking slower" to try make a positive case.

      IYR is taking a big hit today, and those that say real estate is the place to be because of a prior 4% dividend will be of little comfort when they find a 40% loss of capital.

      It is amazing as well, that with the likely loss of 1 trillion dollars in the global financial system has not figured out yet that when a multiplier is applied that the loss in lending power by the banking system is of super historic proportions.
      View article »
    • Tue May 20th 15:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Commercial Real Estate Falls Sharply in March
      That is why I invested in SRS! Finally getting some profit!
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 13:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing
      Agree that the housing bust will last much longer than most "experts" think likely.

      I believe commercial real estate will be hurt bad as capitalization rates rise along with interest rates tied to inflation and reduced lending capacity of banks and other lenders. Rising vacancies will also cut into previous dreams of appreciation.
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 22:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: How Long Will the Inflation Respite Last?
      The drop in FXI today seems to be primarily caused by banking regulations requiring more disclosure as well as a "glut of new shares" available for China investors. What do you think?

      I had been anticipating a rally that might extend through the Olympics this summer before a sharp drop in September. I have put positions for Jan 2009. It may be that the decline in place since the summer will now continue.

      How does this timing look to you and other readers?
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 22:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: How Long Will the Inflation Respite Last?
      So what is your forecast for FXI?
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 28th 08:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Homebuilder Earnings Reports and Other Struggles - Housing Tracker
      Any clue on how REITs earnings reports will look later this week? IYR could be very volitile if they show significantly lower expectations for the coming year.
      View article »
    • Sat Apr 26th 14:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      REITs: An Update
      Toro, I hope you are right in your projections for the fall of IYR. I am currently caught in a trap without an early stop loss. I am afraid of whiplash now.

      I was looking at the dates for earnings reports and the next couple of weeks should really turn things down for IYR based on the expected earnings reported by Scottrade. What is your expecation of earnings in the near term?

      Your analysis gives me confidence, but I wonder about your follow up comments of "underperform&quo... Where did that come from? Your scaring me now! I am not sure what you are saying and the time horizion you are considering. Please help me out here. Thanks, John
      View article »
    • Sat Apr 19th 23:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Many Investors Seem To Think the Worst Is Over
      Get ready for a lot worse. You have never seen or heard this screem before!
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 13:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mortgage Resets: Subprime May Be Ending, Option ARMs Have Just Begun
      Is there any way out of the messsssss?

      I wonder about a law that freezes interest rates on all adjustable rate mortgages for 5 years. That would stop the foreclosure part of the problem while the economy heals damage already done.

      The banks and other lenders would be hurt, but when they resort to such below the belt tactics, who better should feel the pain?
      View article »
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